Inside Leg Kick

On the Merge of Greatness: UFC and WEC make History

2010-10-28T21:07:00.001-04:00

And then, there was one.

2010 has been a banner year for the sport of MMA, with continued expansion into domestic and international markets for the UFC, massive upsets, title fights that have literally changed the landscape over multiple weight classes, some of the best fights the sport has seen in years, and an Emperor dethroned.

And in spite of all that, this may very well be the biggest news of the year.

Come January 1st of 2011, WEC will officially merge with the UFC, absorbing the lightweight class and finally giving a massive national platform for the featherweight and bantamweight divisions.

Mark my words, nothing but good can come of this. In fact, I suspect this will dramatically improve UFC and the Zuffa organization. I have long been a proponent of the WEC owning the title of most entertaining MMA promotion. I rarely find myself bored with any of their cards, and they have turned out consistently fun action in the form of ultra-competitive fights. Maybe it has something to do with the lighter weight classes being more aggressive at that size, but if you have seen the product, you cannot deny how enjoyable the majority of cards are.

Rather than continue to gush ad nauseum, it's probably best if I structure my thoughts a little. With that said, here are ten reasons why the UFC-WEC merger will be of genuine benefit to mixed martial arts.

1. Exposure for the lighter weight classes. Guys like Jose Aldo, Urijah Faber, and Miguel Torres deserve a spotlight to bask in. These guys have put on some damn impressive performances, and it's a shame that only a handful of the WEC luminaries have had the chance to shine on pay-per-view as of this year. And unfortunately, for marketing purposes, that wasn't even with the WEC brand name. Now to have those names finally compete in the UFC, the gold standard for the sport of mixed martial arts... it honestly sends chills down my spine. I can't help but grin when I hear the term, "Jose Aldo, UFC featherweight champion." It rolls off the tongue so easily, and it feels oh, so right. Especially considering his status as a top pound-for-pound fighter. A guy like that deserves the same platform as his teammate, Anderson Silva. And you'd better believe that once he debuts, he will shine for a whole new audience. This segues into...

2. Improved UFC fight cards. Despite having the five main weight classes, there have been a lot of UFC events that have suffered from a lack of a top tier main event. Mir vs. Cro Cop was widely reviled as a stinker of a main event even before it aired. And before that, when it was Mir-Nogueira II, it still received a lukewarm reception. Adding in some top tier names from the lower weight classes will give these cards a boost of star power, add some exciting fights to the mix, and incorporate additional title matches to be held. What's not to like about that?

3. A richer lightweight division. Now that Frankie Edgar has bested BJ Penn twice, Penn is already moving up in weight to fight Matt Hughes. If he begins to flirt with 170 lbs. again, this is detrimental for the division, as BJ is a draw. Edgar is an undeniable talent, but unproven as a selling point. However, with the right amount of exposure, there are lots of lightweights from the WEC to help bolster the division. This is nothing new. Carlos Condit and Chael Sonnen have both put on great performances in the Octagon in recent months. Let us not forget Condit is the final WEC welterweight champion, and Sonnen should rightfully be the WEC middleweight champion after his second fight with the bizarre Paulo Filho. Dissolving those weight classes was the beginning, perhaps. But it has added some fresh blood to already stacked divisions. The lightweight division will probably experience a similar surge.

4. One division, one champion, one momentous occasion. Going hand-in-hand with the third bullet on this list is the announcement that the winner of the WEC lightweight championship match between Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis will face the winner of the UFC lightweight championship match between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. This is great for so many reasons. For one thing, it simplifies the entire weight class by proclaiming one champion to defend against all. Additionally, the thought of a unification bout of any sort has tremendous implications. The last time this sport saw two titles merged was when Dan Henderson put the Pride middleweight title on the line against Anderson Silva. Cliche as it may sound, events like this are truly historic, and add an extra layer of prestige to the victor's spoils.

5. New life into TUF. The Ultimate Fighter has had its ups and downs over the last few seasons. With the UFC-WEC merger, opening up the show's platform for lighter weight classes makes for some interesting scenarios. I read one commentator who thought that a season of bantamweights featuring Urijah Faber and Miguel Torres would be a good idea. I love this concept, and it makes a potential title contender fight between the too much more appealing, and a lot easier to sell with a season's worth of hype behind it for newcomers.

6. This is better for the fighters. A fighters' life is a hard one. Your paychecks are determined by your fights, and with WEC only putting on seven or eight cards a year to the UFC's roughly twenty or so (between PPV's, fight nights and TUF finales), WEC's finest will now have more opportunities to earn steady pay. I like this, because it's such a motivator for hungry fighters. Especially guys who want the world to know who they are. It's a wonderful thing from both a financial and visibility perspective. Not only that, with the added benefit of PPV revenues, these same fighters are bound to receive bigger paydays, and that's a positive thing for them and the business.

7. New names for the casual fans to get excited about. MMA die hards are familiar with Jose Aldo and Urijah Faber. These are not new faces. However, to the casual fan who saunters over to Buffalo Wild Wings to watch a big-time fight like a Lesnar-Velasquez or Silva-Sonnen, odds are there's a healthy percentage of people who don't know those two names. Why? Because unless they happen to catch a random card or "WrekCage" on Versus, they've probably never seen or heard of WEC. There was a lot of fear over WEC's future this year when Versus was struggling to maintain its network distribution. With no shortage of talented fighters, there are now more opportunities to convert casual fans into devoted ones. This is good for the longevity of the business.

8. The competition officially needs to step it up. Strikeforce has done a fairly lackluster job of competing with the UFC, despite having some incredibly talented fighters on its roster. However, to be successful in the MMA game when there's a name that big really requires you to put your best foot forward every single time. While there have been some good showings by Strikeforce, there have been some monstrous duds, too. Now with more excitement buzzing around the Zuffa fighting family, the heat is on for Strikeforce, Bellator and other promotions to do more than just "get by." Additionally, this may also increase the allure for non-Zuffa contracted fighters to do what Jake Shields did: make the switch. Sure, Fedor will probably never convert. But Allstair Overeem, Jacare Souza, possibly even Dan Henderson may raise an eyebrow with this news and reconsider their options.

9. A bigger bargaining chip for the lighter weight classes. Now being the premier sports organization for the featherweight and bantamweight divisions, UFC and Zuffa have more stroke than ever to go after some of the hottest talent overseas in those weight classes. If you view Sherdog.com's divisional rankings, you'll notice a lot of unfamiliar names to American audiences in these classes. But now with more money being poured into each division, the probability for further international talent acquisitions--and thus, more exciting fights--just grew tenfold.

10. MMA is now even further from boxing's greatest pitfall. In boxing, the oft-referenced "alphabet soup" of titles has become less comical and more tragic as the years have gone on. There are simply too many names and too many weight classes to truly understand or appreciate the talent of the respective champions. Title mergers hardly mean anything at this point, as no one really cares much. And that is what the sport has done to itself by allowing multiple sanctioning bodies to have such control over the flow of the sport. Dana White has been dead set against co-promotion with anyone, M1 Global or otherwise. While it may be a little monopolistic of him, it also preserves the integrity of the sports titles and prevents the sweet science's downfall from ever happening to MMA. By assimilating all Zuffa promotions under one roof, this merger has pushed the sport one step away from going the route of boxing. There's a reason WAMMA never worked out, and why Fedor Emelianenko never trotted that belt out much after Affliction died an ugly, agonizing death. Dana White has long argued that until names like Fedor compete in the Octagon and make it there, they can never be considered the best. Well, guess what? That's no longer opinion, it's fact. UFC as a promotion now lays claim to the absolute best in every weight class except flyweight. And I wouldn't put it past them to expand even further into that division as well. The long and short of it is, there will never be any confusion from January 1st forward as to who the best names in MMA are. Because they'll be under one roof, far from the taints of co-promoters and sanctioned-yet-unauthorized bodies.

This is one of the most significant days the sport has seen since Griffin vs. Bonnar, and the ramifications will be felt far and wide. It's a great day for the sport, and as a fan, you can't help but be excited for what's to come next.

Brock and a Hard Place: Evaluating Lesnar After UFC 121

2010-10-26T21:33:00.001-04:00

At the end of the monumental UFC 116, following Brock Lesnar’s shocking second round comeback victory, a shot of Cain Velasquez sitting in the audience was shown. True to form, his stoic face revealed little emotion or reaction to the fight that had just occurred. He looked more to be taking it all in. After watching his performance this past Saturday night, I tend to think he was formulating his game plan.

A game plan that played off of the gaping holes in Brock Lesnar’s game.

Despite his near-mythic status courtesy of the UFC hype machine (as is Dana White’s job, so we can’t hold it against him), Lesnar’s last two title defenses have exposed some massive weaknesses. Cain Velasquez just happened to be the first guy to formulate a plan of attack that exploited them.

Let’s get Brock’s strengths out of the way.

1. He’s a monster. This guy is a physical specimen to be sure. His presence in the cage is doubtlessly imposing as there’s not a single heavyweight besides Shane Carwin whose mass matches his. Additionally, he has the power to match that physique, and having a wrestler’s work ethic works tremendously in his favor as far as his ability to maintain that strength. Between his fights at UFC 100 and UFC 116, he looked as if he lost no muscle mass despite his fight with diverticulitis and subsequent surgery.

2. He’s got a great shot. Lesnar has some of the most effective takedowns this side of GSP. And once he has you on the ground, it’s not exactly easy to move your hips beneath nearly 300 lbs. of Viking meat. Once he has you there, he can do whatever he wants. This normally consists of blunt force trauma to the skull in the form of straight shots and hammer fists.

We’ve all been aware of this since his first UFC bout against Frank Mir, however.

Much has been made of Lesnar’s progress in the sport. However, odds are much more will be made in the coming weeks and months of the areas he needs desperately to grow in if he wants to sit atop the heavyweight rankings once again.

1. He needs to work on his striking. Ever since his highlight reel punch that sent Heath Herring tumbling across the mat, Brock Lesnar has not had a single punch that has registered in the public consciousness. Sure, when he gets into the game of ground and pound, he’s a beast. But his stand-up is suspect at best. We’ve never seen him cleanly win a striking exchange.

2. His defense is lacking. Going hand in hand with good boxing is efficient head movement. Brock has been rocked hard in two consecutive fights now, and we’ve seen him crumble. Despite his mock punches to his own chin following his last successful defense, being able to take a punch doesn’t make him impervious. Nor does it mean he should allow himself to absorb punishment. Those tactics are only recommended if you have the scientifically proven concrete chin of a Diaz brother.

3. If he’s on his back, he’s lost. Brock recently boasted he should have his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu by now. If that were the case, Cain Velasquez would not have been able to so swiftly pass his guard. With a simple push of the knees, Cain was able to pass and transition into a knee-on-belly position that accentuated the damage already inflicted. Granted, being against the cage didn’t help his cause. But being able to do nothing more than cover your face won’t always get you out of a jam.

4. Does he really know submissions? OK. He got an arm triangle on Carwin. But if you look closely, it was really more of an “arm rhombus.” The hold was not applied correctly (with the hand of the arm around the neck clasped to the biceps of the opposing arm, as is typical in BJJ or Sambo). Brock was able to get the submission by virtue of his huge arms and efficient use of position. But this submission is tailor-made for wrestlers who work well from top. Randy Couture illustrated that just one month later against James Toney. I sincerely doubt Brock would be able to get an armbar from that same mount.

What am I getting at?

I'm getting at the fact that has become crystal clear: Lesnar is not infallible in the Octagon. He is a fierce competitor and no question, tough to beat. But Cain Velasquez perfectly executed a game plan founded on technique over size and strength, even managing to beat Lesnar at his five-star wrestling game within that plan.

Lesnar is still new to the MMA game. There is no taking away from his ability, and how much he has grown. You don't beat guys like Randy Couture, Frank Mir or Shane Carwin on sheer luck. However, that being said, if Lesnar truly wants to sit atop the mountain with his Viking beard and golden axe to accompany the gold beld he so recently held, he will need to evaluate those four points listed above and work damn hard to make sure he corrects them.

One thing Cain Velasquez proved is a point that Brock himself has been driving home consistently: the heavyweight landscape is changing. Gone are the days where it was Fedor Emelianenko reigning supreme with everybody else falling short. Heavyweights are evolving at a rapid fire pace, becoming more than just brutish bruisers, but truly incorporating technique and finesse into their games. Velasquez may indeed be the archetype of the modern heavyweight, as his combination of precision striking and wrestling acumen make him dangerous. In all hoensty, I am looking forward to his bout with Junior dos Santos more than a Lesnar-dos Santos fight, just because of the potential for more varied combat.

Fedor has already been toppled by the modern heavyweight. Brock can somewhat be excused for his relative inexperience to both the Last Emperor and the newly crowned champion. If he wants to proclaim himself as the "toughest S.O.B. around," his best bet is to vary his training and expand upon his wrestling base. Otherwise, this won't be the last time we see him flailing beneath a torrent of fists.

But it might be the last time we see him in the reverse position as alpha male aggressor.

Sonnen's Swan Song?

2010-09-20T00:12:00.000-04:00

The news of Chael Sonnen's drug test failure for UFC 117 has set the MMA community on fire with coverage and speculation. Every major news outlet has picked up the story, and questions have quickly arisen about Sonnen's punishment, the likelihood of his rematch with Anderson Silva, and his overall future.

The only two people who are completely mum on the topic right now are Sonnen himself and Dana White, whose Twitter feed has not been updated since 5:00 PM Saturday. No doubt White is working with the CSAC to determine the appropriate punishment. Odds are he's also been in touch with Ed Silva to solve the riddle of who will fight Anderson Silva next.

There's a lot to this story, but it is worth trying to melt down to a few key points:

1. Chael Sonnen should not be granted a rematch. The most likely scenario is that Sonnen will be suspended for a 6 months to a year, based on prior cases in which PED's were detected. He can try and appeal, but one way or another, he's going to be suspended. For one thing, there is currently a bevvy of worthy challengers for White and Ed Silva to consider. Vitor Belfort vs. Yushin Okami has already been pegged as the fight to determine the next #1 contender to the middleweight crown; the winner could just as easily move right into the next fight with Anderson Silva. If Zuffa wants to keep the winter deadline, Nate Marquardt could be moved into the top spot following his win over Rousimar Palhares. Keep in mind Marquardt's only loss in his last five fights was to Sonnen.

But even discounting the number of potential challengers, let's say Sonnen went the last couple minutes of UFC 117 without being submitted. He would have won the fight, and upon this revelation, he would have been stripped of the title with his suspension, and a new fight would have to be set up to determine the champion. This precedent was set with Sean Sherk in 2007.

I didn't agree with Sherk getting an automatic title shot once his suspension was over, and I don't agree with the notion that Sonnen might get a shot when he is again eligible to fight. Especially given the fact his spectacular performance at UFC 117 can now be called into question. Sonnen should have to get at least one more fight under his belt before he can get a shot for the title again. Speaking of that performance...

2. UFC 117 paints Anderson Silva in an even better light. From the outset of the first round, I could sense something was off about Silva, and his performance caught everyone's attention for how out of place it was. As it turned out, his rib was injured prior to the fight and cracked some time in the first round. He endured through another three and a half rounds of punishment before slapping on the triangle choke and winning in a shocking come-from-behind victory.

But now with the added factor of Sonnen's apparent PED use, Silva's ability to withstand those four and half rounds and still be able to come out on top is all the more impressive. His opponent had an unfair advantage going in, unbeknown to all but Sonnen himself, and Silva still pulled the rabbit out of his hat. While it does not necessarily his two-year on-and-off dance routine in the Octagon, he does deserve credit for being a true champion in this instance.

Unfortunately, this also possibly explains how Sonnen was the only man in UFC history to dominate Anderson Silva. But even so...

3. Sonnen will not be fired from the UFC. There has been an immediate call from fans to can Chael Sonnen for this offense. Many fans on Twitter and various message boards have rightfully expressed anger, especially after the "Summer of Sonnen" where no MMA fan could walk ten feet without being obliged to a trademark Chael Sonnen sound bite. However, look at the facts. Sean Sherk, Tim Sylvia and Chris Leben were all caught using PED's in high profile, main event fights. Not a one of them was fired for it. In fact, two of them remain gainfully employed. Does this situation bode differently because of how huge the fight was? Perhaps. But the likelihood of Chael Sonnen being fired for this is about as thin as M-1 Global's credibility. Especially considering this is his first offense. It is still a grievous offense, but it is not as though the man has a proven track record of trying to cheat the system.

But the fans have clearly spoken. And the message is clear...

4. Chael Sonnen's reputation is in the toilet. Maybe if he had been less vocal and boisterous, this wouldn't taste as sour. Even last week, he was quoted as making outlandish statements about Georges St-Pierre and Brock Lesnar for no apparent reason other than to get attention. He was even quoted as speculating that he would be a coach on the next season of The Ultimate Fighter. Sonnen made a name for himself this summer by creating controversy and not shying away from ridiculous statements. He boasted about how he would take the fight to Anderson Silva, and true to his word, he did just that.

That's about the only time you'll find me, or anyone using the word "true" in the same sentence with his name again.

Sonnen stated after losing to Anderson Silva that he was "heartbroken." He bemoaned his track record of always coming up second. He has waxed poetic about being at his father's deathbed and promising the man that someday, he would become an MMA champion.

All of that is shot to hell now. Keep in mind, this is the same man who claims he never tapped to Paulo Filho's armbar in WEC. The same man who, for a split second, tried to convince Josh Rosenthal that he didn't tap out to Anderson Silva's miraculous triangle choke at UFC 117. And now, the same man who has been caught red-handed. He has entered Josh Barnett territory, which is not where anybody wants to be.

More than anything else, his reputation is shot with MMA fans. Few will be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, myself included. It is difficult to cheer for the man to begin with given his ego, and this will do nothing to ingratiate himself with the public.

He has no one to blame but himself. And for the first time in almost a year, Chael Sonnen has no comment. Would you?

Lastly...

5. The legacy of UFC 117 remains uncertain. It is too soon to tell how the main event will be regarded in the future. It was still a great fight, but there is a taint to it now on one side of the cage. Perhaps this controversy will elevate the reigning champion in the eyes of the public even more. Perhaps the fight will take a seat next to the elephant in the living room as the pundits say, "we don't want to mention that one." No one knows for sure, and it will be a long time before anyone can be 100% certain about this fight's place in history. And honestly, right now, that should be the last thing on anyone's mind.

This is a messy situation. One in which the best outcome possible is simply the lesser of all evils. No one truly wins in this. Even Ed Soares has stated that no one in his camp, Silva included, is jubilant at this revelation. Their names are attached to that epic battle, too. You can understand why they would want the fight to remain pure, even if it makes Silva's win more impressive.

The biggest loser is not even Sonnen himself. As I mentioned, he is responsible for his actions and should be held accountable as such. The biggest losers are the MMA fans who bore witness to this great fight and labeled it an instant classic. These are the same fans who all called for an immediate rematch that will not be happening now. The same fans who saw such greatness in this fight, they wanted to see if these two men could do it one more time and still thrill to such heights.

Those fans are out of luck, tragically. And rest assured, they will not be shy in letting Chael Sonnen know their discontent the next time he walks out to a cage.

Does the Prodigal Son Return?

2010-09-03T07:18:00.000-04:00

Back in April, I had several friends over my place to watch UFC 112. During a long conversation that diverted us from the fight on air at the time, I returned my attention to the screen and something registered after several rounds of back and forth between myself and my guests.

I remember making the following announcement between the third and fourth rounds: "Guys, I don't know if you've noticed, but Frankie Edgar is winning..."

For someone who, at the time, was watching casually and not with my usual focused intent, that's what it looked like to me. It was close for sure. But Edgar looked faster, more aggressive, always moving... BJ Penn did not look as sharp.

He certainly didn't look like the BJ Penn of the prior eight months. Furthermore, it looked nothing like the BJ Penn of 155 lbs. Having seen every Penn fight since my interest in MMA began, I was stunned to see him look so off. Granted, he was decimated by Georges St-Pierre, but at that weight class, and with that size difference, I wasn't surprised. I didn't think anyone would be able to unseat him as champion.

I was clearly wrong.

In watching the April fight a second time, I saw it was very, very close. But I still gave it to Edgar as much as I gave the first encounter between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua to Shogun. I didn't think he blew BJ out of the water... not by a long shot. But he definitely won in my eyes.

After the fight, Penn's camp said he was fighting a sinus infection, competing on antibiotics. I did my best to give them the benefit of the doubt, but after "Greasegate," I was somewhat dubious of this claim. Though it would explain how a typically dominant Prodigy could look so lackluster. So going into Saturday night, I expected Penn to come out with a fire under his ass, ready to reclaim his crown.

What all of us saw was something much less than the Prodigy. I'm not sure what it was. But I'm beginning to think it's the real BJ Penn. The man that's left when the fanfare and tough talk is stripped away. I gotta believe this is what we're seeing.

Nothing can ever be taken away from BJ's raw talent. However, his conditioning has long been called into question. Along with his heart. Let's not forget this is the man who once left the UFC and MMA altogether when he felt he no longer wished to fight. This is the man who sought excuses for his last two losses to GSP and Edgar.

I suspect this is the guy who looked outright lost after the second round of this Saturday's rematch.

I believe Penn is tremendously gifted as a fighter. But I question his heart. I think back to just last month when Brock Lesnar was getting obliterated by Shane Carwin, then managed to come back by the skin of his teeth and won after a dismal 10-8 round. I think back to earlier this month when Anderson Silva had been dissected by Chael Sonnen for four straight rounds and pulled out a miracle submission with just minutes to spare. I think back even further to Minotauro Nogueira's third round magic guillotine against Tim Sylvia. Or Matt Hughes' unexpected escape from Frank Trigg's choke a couple years before that.

These are the things that, in my opinion, make for great fighters and memorable champions. Fedor Emelianenko was once notorious for these comebacks. No one can question the heart of these individuals.

I believe BJ Penn is more naturally talented than Frankie Edgar. But Edgar is a much harder worker, much more naturally hungry. Much more intense in his demeanor in the cage. And this makes me want to cheer for him more as a fan.

I believe Penn was vastly over-matched against his 155 lb. opponents from 2007 to April of this year. It explains why he blew past everyone not named Georges St-Pierre until he faced Edgar. And now, he has to be questioning his own viability in this sport.

I'm not sure where BJ goes from here. If he rematches with Kenny Florian, he will probably be victorious. Other possible fights remain against the likes of Takanori Gomi and maybe even George Sotiropoulos if the latter can notch another win on his record.

But that depends on if he wants it badly enough. He's lost twice in a row to Edgar now. One time, he lost convincingly. Should he climb up the ladder to face Edgar or Gray Maynard, he is likely to have massive doubts going in. If he moves up to 170, he has a stacked division to contend with, and another massive hurdle in GSP, who has also defeated him twice.

It is a difficult choice to make. I certainly don't see him dropping to 145, I don't think his body could take it. Welterweight seems like a probable move, one that he has considered for a time according to most reports. But I don't think he'd fair well in that weight class under the current conditions.

I think the best move for BJ is to heavily consider what is best for him next... and to make sure whatever he decides, he goes about it with the utmost seriousness and dedication.

BJ can be the best. He can make a comeback and reclaim his title of best lightweight in the world. The question is, does he want that? Already videos have emerged stating he's looking to return to the cage soon. That's great, but at this point, we have no idea which BJ is gonna show up... the guy who backs up his boasts, or the guy we saw last weekend.

Sweet Silence: Why the Debate was Over before UFC 118

2010-08-28T13:44:00.000-04:00

Although tonight's main event at UFC 118 will feature a rematch after the somewhat controversial Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn title fight from Abu Dhabi, it seems that most eyes are concentrated on the co-main event. A fight that brings years of comparison and debate to a head. A fight that embodies the spirit of the argument itself -- MMA vs. Boxing.

Many eyes will be on Randy Couture vs. James Toney, especially those belonging mainstream sports writers and pundits from both sides of the divide. James Toney has been extremely vocal about his desire to KO Couture and make a statement about the more dominant sport. His interviews have been brash and boastful enough to make even Chael Sonnen blush. Couture comes to the fight with his same soft-spoken demeanor and unwavering confidence. He has said little with regard to the sport vs. sport debate, and he doesn't need to. His stance is that he has a job to do, and that job is to win.

James Toney is a great talent in the boxing ring. His pugilistic career spans 20 years, and at a 72-6-3-2 record, he has walked away with a raised hand in nearly 87% of his fights. That doesn't come by accident. In a sport where anyone has a puncher's chance (See Serra vs. GSP), he has the opportunity to KO Couture. He has the chance to make the statement he things he will.

And none of that matters, because Toney's odds of winning are about as good as the chance of an Art Jimmerson comeback.

This is not a one-dimensional sport. By that, I mean there is so much more to it than striking. I understand there are variant boxing styles. There are power strikers, technical strikers, multiple stances, it is a complex and dignified sport. I can't take that away from the sport. However, while the fight itself hearkens back to the style vs. style days of the earliest UFC events, much has changed about the promotion, and the sport once simply known as NHB (No Holds Barred).

This is not like Royce Gracie's vs. Jimmerson, where it's the Jiu-Jitsu master versus the Golden Gloves champion. MMA has evolved by necessity. To be successful, one must master multiple crafts. Striking, grappling, submissions, clinch work, cage control... it is a more dynamic sport for these reasons.

Boxing has not drastically changed since the early part of the 20th century. While the caliber of athletes to put on the gloves may have escalated, the same principles remain.

That being the case, unless James Toney is a savant, he doesn't have a prayer. And the sport of MMA will forever be a more challenging sport for fighters.

It is perhaps serendipitous that just this week, Kimbo Slice announced his intent to make the jump from the cage to try his hand at boxing. While his street fighting knockouts are well documented, his MMA career is even more notorious for his shoddy ground game.

That is why UFC 118, while it promises to be entertaining, will not ultimately matter in this debate. The truth has been out there for years.

Additionally, from a business perspective, the UFC has had boxing's number for years. Since the rapid ascent of the UFC into the mainstream from the mid-2000's on, the sport of MMA has been eternally compared to the sweet science. It is a fact that UFC owns 8 out of the top 10 sports PPV's annually. One of the other spots belongs to WrestleMania, and the top spot typically belongs to a boxing event, featuring either Manny Paquiao or Floyd Mayweather, both of whom have wrested the box office crown from Oscar De La Hoya.

It is also a fact that boxing will never truly "die." That said, its popularity has faltered dramatically.

Lackluster PPV's. A title scene about as clear as mud. Few recognizable mainstream names. And a superfight that may never happen.

It doesn't matter where this decline began. You could argue it began with Mike Tyson's imprisonment. Or his fight with Evander Holyfield. Or perhaps back even further with Don King's influence. The fact is, boxing is no longer what it once was, and another sport has ascended as the top combat sport. And Zuffa are the kings of the cage between UFC and WEC.

While MMA may forever be linked to boxing because of the spectacle, the venues, the atmosphere, the verdict was delivered a long time ago. All hail the king.

The Fitch Paradox

2010-08-16T00:47:00.012-04:00

Joe Silva has a quandary before him, and it weighs 170 lbs.

The welterweight division is a big one for the UFC, but its champion just happens to be Georges St-Pierre. The man who has wrested the title of “world’s most dominant welterweight” from Matt Hughes, and put on dominant performances for the last three years. Oh, and depending in who you ask, he’s also the #1 or #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

GSP has just about cleaned out his weight class, and save maybe one or two realistic “fresh” challengers (Jake Shields comes to mind), we’re at the point where his contenders are “reruns.” Guys who already had their chance but came up short. Josh Koscheck is the first to ready “syndication” in this instance. After him, topping this list is AKA teammate Jon Fitch, perhaps the world’s most paradoxical fighter.

Going into UFC 117, the rematch between Fitch and Thiago Alves was initially promoted as a #1 contender’s fight, with the winner getting a second shot at GSP. Despite Fitch’s win, immediately following the fight, White was hesitant to confirm Fitch was the man to face the winner of GSP-Kos 2. It was reminiscent of White’s fuzzy stance on Dan Henderson this time last year. After Henderson KO’d Michael Bisping in convincing fashion, many were under the impression he would be the next to get a crack at Anderson Silva for the middleweight crown. Clearly, that never came to fruition.

But whereas Hendo’s potential shot went up in flames due in part to contractual negotiations, Fitch’s is in limbo because Dana White is painfully aware of one fact: Fitch is boring.

As good a wrestler as Jon Fitch is, he causes audiences more pain than his opponents. After watching him control Ben Saunders for 15 straight minutes in person at UFC 111, I cringe at the thought of seeing him do the same to contenders in an alternate Bizarro World where he’s welterweight champ.

Fitch’s last five fights have had him winning by unanimous decision time and again. In all fairness, 3 out of GSP’s last 4 title defenses have come by way of UD, too. Heck, if BJ Penn’s corner didn’t throw in the towel after the fourth round, odds are that fight would have gone the distance as well. But the fundamental difference between St-Pierre and Fitch is that the incumbent champion does make an effort to finish his opponents. While he predictably takes them down and controls them, he’s always working. Throwing shots, looking for submissions, being active on the ground. Fitch hardly does that. Last Saturday against Thiago Alves, he started looking for a choke late in the third round. But by that point, he hard already cemented his victory by taking Alves down and controlling him every single round.

He’s grueling to watch. And yet his record speaks for itself. Fitch subscribes to the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” school of thought, and is unwavering in his methodology. But the fans have long begun to turn on him. In pro wrestling, his fight would be known as the “Popcorn Match;” a match in which the fans are unengaged and use the restrooms or get concessions.

Fitch’s dilemma shows that while you can convincingly win fights, you can’t necessarily win fans. Until he displays more thorough killer instinct, he may be second to GSP, but he will remain lost in fans’ hearts. I don't believe there are many fans out there who would want to see him defending the welterweight title, holding opponents in one place for 25 straight minutes without barely throwing a blow or going for a submission.

In a world where fans want to see Anderson Silva dropping bombs instead of dancing to wins, Fitch will forever be lost in the shuffle. Fans have cooled on him, and it's possible Dana has as well. If Fitch wants that second title shot, I'm of the mind he's going to have to show it more with one more fight. My take is that Jake Shields should be next in line should he defeat Martin Kampmann. Fitch should take the loser of that fight and show some hunger in doing so. Being the #2 in your division isn't enough. Zuffa needs to tout it's champions, which is one of the reasons UFC 112 was borderline disastrous given Anderson Silva's performance. Were it not for Chael Sonnen, UFC 117 would not have broken a million buys, period.

Besides, if Fitch does get another crack at GSP, he should know his wrestling won't do any good. One way or the other, Fitch has his own paradox before him: fight or falter. The choice should be obvious.

The Perfect Storm

2010-08-09T18:41:00.000-04:00

Saturday night, the conditions were just right in and outside of the cage for the perfect storm.

You could not ask for a better combination. Hype. Trash talk. A clash of styles. An embattled champion. A brash challengers. A hint of controversy. And a miraculous comeback.

There’s something about this fight that vaguely reminded me of Rocky III, with Rocky Balboa having to redeem himself in the eyes of his critics against Clubber Lange after a string of wins against questionable contenders. Skip the loss to Lange and Mickey’s death, add in a bizarre performance in which Rocky moonwalks in his last title fight, and that is essentially the story of Silva vs. Sonnen.

I, like pretty much everybody else, thought the reign was over. Chael Sonnen not only talked a big game against Anderson Silva, he came in and enacted his game plan to near-perfection. To his credit, I knew he was a legitimate threat (or at least expected him to offer some semblance of a challenge) to Silva’s crown. I didn’t expect him to dominate the champ the way he did.

In the early rounds, I thought Silva was baiting him, trying to tire him out and go for an armbar from the guard. It quickly became apparent that it was actually Sonnen's plan in action. Continuously, he executed precise, stifling takedowns and managed to avert any submission attempts. Silva opened each round trying to gain an advantage as the aggressor, abandoning his standard counterstriking strategy. Sonnen ate a few hard shots, but nevertheless managed to stick to his plan and stuff the champ, inevitably outstriking him nearly 10 to 1.

The stats are incredible. Silva absorbed more strikes in one fight than his in his entire career inside the Octagon.

Between rounds, the look on his face told the story. “I am not only losing… I’m lost.” The look on Sonnen’s face was buttressed by the words of his corner. “It is within grasp.”

Going into the fifth, the outcome was clear: “Silva has lost. Within two days, Sherdog will revise their divisional rankings with Sonnen on top. A day after that, their pound-for-pound rankings will show GSP as the best in the world with Jose Aldo as runner-up. Silva may drop from the list altogether.”

Then at 3:10 in the final round, the outcome changed.

A triangle choke slapped on tight. An attempt at escape. More contortion from the champion. More struggling from the challenger. A brief, Fedor-esque tap on the thigh. Josh Rosenthal’s struggle to break the hold, and then chaos. Silva refused to relinquish, Sonnen denied the tap… and within less than a minute, the replay clearly showed what Rosenthal’s sharp eye caught. And like that, it was over.

But for more than 22 minutes, this hypothetical outcome was the farthest thing from anyone’s mind.

Silva’s victory solidifies him as a champion. No one is talking about his insulting performances against Patrick Cote, Thales Leites or Demian Maia today. He was pushed to the limit, defeated, and did the impossible.

Sonnen’s loss marks him as a marquee fighter. In defeat, he did what no one has been able to do to Silva in his entire career. Despite Silva’s early losses in Pride, he had never been decimated from bell-to-bell. He had never been made to squirm or forced to doubt his stature. Sonnen humbled him for 99% of the fight. He talked he talk and he damn sure walked the walk. He has nothing to be ashamed of in his endeavor. He did what no one else could do in the last four years: make Anderson Silva look human.

Let’s be clear… neither man fought the perfect fight. Holes in both men’s games were glaringly exposed. For Silva, it’s wrestling. He struggled with Dan Henderson for a full round before putting him away, and against a younger, hungrier Chael Sonnen, he was completely outmatched. For Sonnen, it’s submissions. 8 of his 11 losses are by way of submission. That’s approximately 73%. For both men, we already knew these facts. However, they were cracked wide open for the world to see this past Saturday in Oakland.

And despite all that, they have earned our respect.

Despite their initial disrespect (Silva’s to Maia, Sonnen’s to Silva), we are compelled to applaud the efforts of both men.

Despite the fact that Sonnen dominated for 22 minutes and couldn’t win, or the fact that Silva only “owned” ten seconds of the fight, they have captured our imagination. Forget the prolonged hold, the tapping protest, even Silva’s remarks about his ribs. These guys epitomized the beauty of MMA.

The question on many people’s minds is: should there be an instant rematch? I’m torn on this, only because Vitor Belfort was promised a shot in November of last year, and has been waiting patiently since April. On the other hand, Sonnen made a strong case for himself. If he were to be granted an immediate rematch, this would be the third “instant” divisional title rematch in one calendar year (the other two being May’s clash between Shogun and Machida and the upcoming tilt between Edgar and Penn). That has to be some kind of a record, and genuinely speaks to the quality of each division’s contenders.

Everyone was elevated in this match. Not just the fighters, but Joe Silva, who put together a spectacular card and a remarkable main event, and especially Josh Rosenthal. This is the second consecutive title fight he has refereed (the other being last month’s Lesnar-Carwin showdown), and the second in which he made an excellent call that required great observational skills. He deserves to be launched into the upper echelon of active MMA refs along with McCarthy and Dean.

Saturday night, the conditions were just right in and outside of the cage for the perfect storm.

For those of us who watched, we felt blessed just to be caught in the downpour.

The Spider's Tangled Web.

2010-07-29T06:47:00.000-04:00

Anderson Silva has me at a crossroads. Part of me wants him to return to the style that won him the UFC Middleweight Championship. Part of me wants nothing else to do with the guy.

See, this is sentimental for me. Silva's part of the reason I started watching MMA when I did. I caught on in 2007, lured by the buzz about Chuck Liddell being light heavyweight king, only to discover the striking acumen of the Spider. His win over Travis Lutter and second win over Rich Franklin are among the earliest fights I can remember seeing back then, and I was amazed by his talent. Needless to say I was amazed by his performances against Dan Henderson and James Irvin.

Then he fought Patrick Cote in a fight where he just didn't seem right. For one thing, he shed his killer instinct and was approaching a more technical victory. There was also a smattering of in-ring mockery going on. No one will know how this would ultimately end as Cote injured his knee early in the third.

Then there was the ultra-frustrating defense against countryman Thales Leites. With Leities consistently trying to pull guard and Silva laughing at him like a parent laughing at a child trying on shoes that were simply too big, this was a five-round snoozer that turned the masses against him. Recovering from this would be hard.

Last August, Silva made the jump back up to light heavyweight to fight Forrest Griffin in a chance to redeem himself. I shelled out money to see this in person, and he satisfied. He completely outclassed Griffin on an otherwise dull card and knocked him out with a walking-away-right-jab. From a southpaw. OK. Now we're on friendly terms again. Being there was probably the most electrifying moment as a fan I could offer. The rest of the Philadelphia Faithful seemed to echo my sentiments. Plus, after seeing Thales Leites put on another boring fight with Alessio Sakara on the preliminary card, I was convinced the awful fight he had with Silva was Leites' fault. He would be released from the UFC after that drab August affair.

I ordered UFC 112 for many reasons. On paper it looked like a hot card... it was ultimately anything but, due in large part to Silva's antics. I almost don't feel the need to go into detail, as anyone who follows MMA more or less knows just what I'm talking about. I half-expected it to happen after seeing the way the man worked with BJJ fighters like Cote and Leites over the past two years. Then I thought, "Nah, no way he'd pull that act again."

I want to believe that if it were Vitor Belfort, as was originally planned, it would have been different. I have no clue. If this were an isolated incident, I would have chalked it up to something like bad jet lag given BJ Penn's lackluster performance against Frankie Edgar. But no. This was a trend. Three times, now. Three strikes.

I don't blame Dana White for a single thing he has said since that ill-fated night. Criticize him all you want, but he's 100% correct and totally justified in his statements. I hope he does cut Silva if we get a reprise of his last three defenses. More than that, I hope Sonnen drags the fight out of him and we get the spectacular KO victory that we, as fans, are owed.

Yes, we are owed that much. Silva has cost us our hard-earned dollars and let us down. It would be one thing if these questionable battles were competitive and went to decision. Then we wouldn't mind. Instead they've been so lopsided, it's been painful to watch.

As a fan, I don't know where to go or how to feel. I'll probably catch a replay or go to the local Buffalo Wild Wings to watch. I have a hunch it won't be nearly as packed as it was during UFC 116. Then again, I'll feel uncomfortable being there. Because at the end of the day, I want to root for Silva. I want him to be the magical KO artist he once was. I want to see a return to old.

But I'm not confident it'll happen. I have absolutely zero idea what will happen. Given the conference call that went down yesterday, it's impossible to read the champion. Sonnen has gone above and beyond any challenger before in the way of trash talk against Silva. And it doesn't seem to be working. The man is too confident in his abilities to really be affected.

So who knows what will happen next weekend? I guess I only know what I hope will happen.

Ring Rust

2010-07-28T21:12:00.000-04:00

It's been a while since I dropped some thoughts here. Too long, in fact. A lot has happened in MMA since last fall and I've been content to take a backseat. But not forever.

Blogging is difficult for me sometimes in that I struggle with things to write about. Especially from a commentary perspective. Keeping a busy personal schedule allows little time to write, and when it becomes more of a chore than anything else, I find myself losing interest.

Part of the problem with this blog in particular is simply, I set the bar too damn high. Having to do PPV reviews is trying as hell. For one thing, I don't order every single one. For another, sometimes it's hard to make it to the local sports bar on any given weekend. So that leaves me relying on friends who order every fight and DVR them. So tough.

But, I still love the sport, and since last fall dragged with event after event and few ramifications, things finally began to kickstart this spring. We've had two new UFC champions crowned, WEC's debut on PPV, one legend stare retirement in the eye and another finally taste defeat. Not to mention possibly the best UFC show in years with 116.

So, I feel like it's time to dust this sucker off. Instead of reviews, I will continue with commentary, which is where I really feel I'm strongest. This will also afford me the opportunity to write at my own pace, as opposed to feeling consistently under the gun to review PPV's within two or three days.

Hope you're still kicking out there.

UFC 106 Predictions

2009-11-19T21:20:00.042-05:00

What should have been a high-grossing card for Zuffa has taken a definite hit in the number of marquee fights. Although nowhere near as bad as the strife plaguing UFC 108, 106 has most definitely been under duress. That said, there has been a strong last minute effort to salvage interest in the card. Dare I say at this point, it has my interest at a much higher level than the inaugural 2010 card for 108.

First, let's take a look at the fights that were supposed to go down this Saturday night. John Howard vs. Dennis Hallman and a lightweight tilt between Clay Guida and Kenny Florian were moved to the TUF Finale and UFC 107 respectively. Welterweight stalwart Jon Fitch was slated to take on Ricardo Almeida prior to Big Dog blowing out his knee. Then a match between former title challengers was set between Fitch and Thiago Alves before an undisclosed injury removed the latter from the picture. Now joining Guida and Florian on the 107 card, Fitch will face Mike Pierce. In what was supposed to be a co-main event, Tito Ortiz was slated to return against hall of famer Mark Coleman until injury forced the Hammer to be placed on the shelf. Enter Forrest Griffin in a highly marketable rematch. Of course, that moved into the main event when it was revealed Brock Lesnar was sick. The increasingly grim picture for Lesnar's return pushed off his date with Shane Carwin even further. Possibly into interim territory.

All this having been said, I give Zuffa credit for being able to more or less salvage this card with some fun fights. This could be one of the better UFC cards this year just on basis of competition alone. So let's get to it!

Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett: Parisyan hasn't seen combat since his win-turned-no-contest clash with Kim Dong-hyun at UFC 94. This, of course, led to him testing positive for banned substances and a 9-month suspension for his troubles. For Hazelett, it's been an even longer layoff since nearly remodeling Tamdan McCrory's arm at UFC 91. This is an interesting fight as it's a Judo vs. Jiu-Jitsu face-off. Karo is arguably the most successful Judoka in MMA, and Hazelett is a grappling prodigy under Jorge Gurgel. He presents a quandary for Parisyan... to grapple or not to grapple. If Karo tries to utilize his Judo, he runs the risk of losing an arm. Therefore, he'll have to keep it standing, something he's not great at. I foresee Hazelett going for more takedowns and submissions en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Luiz Cane has joined Cain Velazquez as one of the "must-watch" prospects of 2009 with his growing list of wins in the competitive light heavyweight division. However, he'll face his most difficult test in the one and only "Li'l Nog." The younger Nogueira twin is riding a five-fight win streak after falling to Sokoudjou at the penultimate Pride event. Like his older brother, he's only been stopped once in his career. Of course, Cane has the upper hand in striking here, so the question is whether or not Nogueira's expert Jiu-Jitsu will be enough to prevent heavy hands from prevailing. I'm going to say yes. Cane is good, but has yet to face a fighter as experienced as Nogueira. There's a lot left in Li'l Nog's tank, and I see him winning a unanimous decision in a very tough battle.

Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni: The New York Badass makes his UFC return against TUF Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah. Sadollah, who has a solid fan base due to his nice guy attitude and underdog spirit, is looking to improve his 1-1 record after falling to Johny Hendricks fists in August. Baroni is looking to reestablish himself in UFC's welterweight division where he currently holds a 3-5 record. This is a tough one to call since Baroni his likely past his prime, and has only shown dominance over more inexperienced opponents in recent years. However, Sadollah's inexperience is in question. Despite his streak on TUF and over C.B. Dalloway, his chin may be a determining factor after being stopped against Hendricks at UFC 101. Something tells me this is Baroni's last hurrah, though. Perhaps the final stretch for a fighter who's at the end of the line. I think Sadollah will have learned from his loss and do a better job of keeping his opponent at bay en route to a unanimous decision win.

Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson: Just last month, I compared Anthony Johnson to Josh Koscheck prior to his short fight with Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Sure enough, the end result of that fight was the same as Koscheck's efforts against the Judoka, only much faster. Now these two are going head to head, and I couldn't be more excited. This is pretty much a battle of mirror images. Both guys are experienced wrestlers with tremendous knockout ability, and it could realistically go either way. I find Johnson to be the more explosive of the two, however. For Koscheck to win, he has to rely on his wrestling. But given Johnson's size, I see that being very problematic for Kos. Even though he fought just a month ago, 41 seconds is barely a warm-up. I'll call Johnson in the second by vicious KO. I'll also predict this could be fight of the night. One thing's for sure... bet your bottom dollar it doesn't go all three rounds. Someone is getting knocked out.

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz: When these two met in 2006, it was seen as Forrest Griffin's initial "coming out" party despite the split decision loss. A loss that is still debated over three years later. He went the distance with an inarguable UFC legend and former light heavyweight champion. Now, three years later, there are countless questions going into this rematch. Does Tito still have it? How will he perform after the year-plus layoff? What about Forrest? Is his chin shot? Is Anderson Silva still in his head? There's a very palpable curiosity factor for this one in a great "good guy vs. bad guy" fight. There's a story here, which makes it very marketable for Zuffa. There's also the element of redemption for both fighters. Griffin is coming off back-to-back losses, Tito hasn't seen a win since Ken Shamrock. Does either of them realistically have an advantage going in? In my opinion, yes. The answer lay in UFC's "teflon man," Mr. Griffin. Now I'm well aware he lost by love tap to Anderson Silva. But let's be honest... it's Anderson fuckin' Silva. No shame in losing to the best in the world. As for Tito, he's coming off major surgery and hasn't fought in well over a year. Before that, he found himself struggling against game opponents. Wins over a past-his-prime Ken Shamrock shouldn't be much to brag about, even in 2006. Forrest doesn't have knockout power, but he has more endurance than ever. I see him winning by decision, only this time it'll be unanimous.

I'd be remiss if I didn't include my quick picks for the Spike live broadcast:

Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis: Saunders by choke in the second.
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt: Rosholt by unanimous decision.

This may be UFC's strongest card of the fourth quarter before they limp into December with it's final title defense of the year. This rounds out a topsy-turvy 2009 before kickstarting 2010 with a tumultuous UFC 108. The bad news is that injuries and illness have shattered what would have been high profile, top-grossing fights including three potential title fights. The good news is that the layoff gives these athletes time to recover, meaning the wealth will be spread out in 2010. I would rather have good reason to check out multiple cards than dive into a big one and then be floating through less stellar events for months on end.

Just think about it... in 2010 we're guaranteed Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort (probably at UFC 109, shaping up to be a huge card), the rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua, Georges St-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy, and if he recuperates from his intestinal troubles before we get back into interim title territory, Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (knocking on wood). The end of the year is tough for fans anyway given the holidays, so spreading out the big fights increases the viability of these pay per views. Nothing but good news for Zuffa and for fight fans.

WEC 44 Predictions

2009-11-17T19:02:00.001-05:00

Four big cards in just 15 days... good lord. Well, let's not waste time and get right to it... WEC... Mike Brown's third defense against a game Jose Aldo... An Armenian invasion... free on Versus. Big night, ironically enough competing with tomorrow's TUF broadcast.

Speaking of which, due to travel, the holidays and the extreme amount of predictions and event reviews on the horizon, I'm consolidating my TUF thoughts for last week's show with tomorrow night's episode and the final broadcast next week. Just an FYI.

Anyway, here we go.

Danny Castillo vs. Shane Roller: This should be a competitive bout between two wrestling standouts. Castillo has only one loss on his record, that being to perennial lightweight title contender Donald Cerrone. Shane Roller's current record is 6-2, with his only WEC loss coming to (surprise, surprise) current interim lightweight champ Benson Henderson. These two guys clearly are no slouches, so who goes over? I think Castillo has the edge in submissions, and if he gets Roller on the ground, I foresee victory by choke in the second.

Rob McCullough vs. Karen Darabedyan: I'm noticing an American vs. Armenian trend going on here. Darabedyan is following the path of his training partner and former TUF contender Manvel Gamburyan in making his WEC debut, but against a very formidable and dangerous opponent. Rob McCullough is no joke, having cut (no pun intended) through several solid lightweights in WEC, only falling to Jamie Varner and the aforementioned Cerrone. Is Darabedyan's Judo going to be enough to top McCullough's Muay Thai? I'm gonna say probably not. Razor by second round TKO.

Manvel Gamburyan vs. Leonard Garcia: Manvel the Anvil made a successful transition to featherweight against John Franchi this past summer. His opponent rebounded from a Mike Brown arm triangle defeat to eke out a split decision against Jameel Massouh in August. I think Garcia has much heavier hands than Gamburyan, but he needs to keep it standing which will be difficult. I see this being something of a standoff that leads to Garcia winning by unanimous decision. Now, my question is, since Karo Parysian is Gamburyan's cousin, but trains with Garcia at Greg Jackson's, who does Karo root for?

Mike Brown vs. Jose Aldo (WEC Featherweight Championship): Aldo is coming into this fight with only one loss on his record, and probably sits right behind the current champion and Urijah Faber in the top featherweight rankings. His opponent, however, is staking his claim at being the best featherweight in history. Mike Brown is on fire right now following his epic clash with Faber several months ago. This is going to be another test for him as Aldo comes in with a strong Muay Thai background and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Whether or not his ground game will be enough to counteract Brown's strength and wrestling is a big question. A bigger question is how his striking will stand up. My feeling is that Aldo probably has the edge in stand-up, but as Brown has shown us time and time again, if he gets you on the ground, you're going to pay. I see this one going longer than the average fight, and a fourth round TKO for Brown as he cements his legacy.

On paper, this looks like a very, very exciting card. I'm more jazzed about this particular event than next month's hopeful redemption fight for Donald Cerrone. In a year where rumblings of a WEC-UFC merger have been consistent, the little promotion that could (and frequently does) is making a very, very strong case for its independence. Personally, I couldn't agree any more.

UFC 105 Thoughts

2009-11-17T17:59:00.001-05:00

This turned out to be a better than expected card, ranking in slightly above average. This is largely due to the undercard and some career performances by the U.K.'s finest. It's great for the Manchester fans that they got to go home happy as their beloved blokes won most of their fights. It also helped the atmosphere feel more special than it may have been. Let's break it down, shall we?

Meet the New Ross, Better Than the Old Ross. Given that we were in England, I just had to break out that Who reference. Seriously, Ross Pearson looked dynamite against Aaron Riley. He exceeded my expectations and I think most everyone else's. He looked vastly improved when compared to his fight with Andre Winner. Hard to argue the stoppage, but even if Riley were able to continue, it would have taken a Herculean effort to turn the tables on Pearson. Great performance.

How did he not win his season? Matt Brown looked great against a very tough James Wilks. It was a lot more competitive than I expected as Wilks came ready to fight. I'm sure he wanted to go in there and upset Brown in front of his countryman, and he looked solid the first round in his efforts to grapple with Brown. However, Brown has a very aggressive streak that seems to take over in the last two rounds and it came down to strength and striking. How Brown didn't get farther in his TUF season is really beyond me. But he's sure making waves now. Good effort by both fighters, though.

Living up to his Name. Andre Winner looked excellent against Roli Delgado, and that was a very impressive knockout. I didn't expect much out of Rolando, as he was the red-headed stepchild of his TUF house by far. But like his TUF teammate, Winner looked to have greatly improved his game. The U.K. is 2-1 so far.

The Count Continues. A lot of people thought Michael Bisping would fall to Denis Kang's striking game. Admittedly, Kang is impressive. His highlight reel showed off some of his career-defining moments, and he clearly owned the first round. But Bisping's second round comeback was magnificent, and like Joe Rogan said, it was truly a career performance for the Count. He passed Kang's guard so easily, he may as well have been rolling his son over his shoulders while simulating a fight. It's clear the loss to Dan Henderson affected him drastically, and I think it motivated him. A first career loss can do that, and I think we have yet to see what Bisping can really accomplish.

Now that's a Debut. Alexander Gustafsson rocked Jared Hamman with that Rashad-inspired overhand right. Good debut, and a quick showcase on the main card will do him well. It's arguable how much the accidental eye poke had to do with the win. Time will tell if he really is legit.

Between a Rock and a Hard(y) Place. As I expected, this turned out to be a very good fight between these two. Many reviewers online scored the first round as a 10-10 draw, and it's kind of hard to argue that. Mike Swick, to his credit, really gutted it out and offered some great defense to Hardy's onslaught. Gotta applaud the efforts of both guys, but the duke rightfully goes to Hardy who put on a great performance. Despite not being able to finish Swick, he clearly dominated the fight as a whole and now finds himself the number one contender to GSP's crown.

A Natural Disaster? Maybe "disaster" is a strong word. But to be honest, next to the Anderson Silva/Thales Leites aberration, I think this was the most boring main event to date in 2009. Randy Couture's strategy could best be described as that cat dangling from the clothesline you see in that novelty poster: "Hang in there, baby." Some reviewers gave Vera the first round for his aggression. Hard to say. Clearly, Couture aimed to control rather than dominate, which I fear may be his career strategy in the light heavyweight division from here on in. Vera was clearly disappointed in the decision after definitively winning the second round and arguably the first. It's a tough call, but as someone noted, if you were to score the fight as a whole rather than round-by-round, he rightfully should have won. From here, it's limbo-land for both fighters... more on that in a bit.

So breaking down the main card, let's see how I did:

Main Card: 3-2 (0.600)
Career Total: 26-15 (0.634)

PTN, Minutiae...

Rule, Britannia! The U.K. had a stellar showing at this event. Discounting the Paul Taylor vs. John Hathaway fight, which featured a battle of countrymen, the Brits went 5-2 overall. This had to register well with the Manchester crowd, and probably gives Zuffa all the more reason to plan future cards there.

Stop stealing Dustin Hazelett's Gimmick. Aside from being a lackluster fighter, Roli Delgado lost more street cred when he came in sporting a massive Grizzly Adams beard. I didn't even recognize him. Scruff is out unless your name is Hazelett or Arlovski, man. Time to Nair that shit.

A Kinder, Gentler Count. The loss to Dan Henderson seemed to do more than just motivate Michael Bisping, it may have also humbled him. Hearing his post-fight thanks to his fans and noting that he's still working on improving was a very different statement than he would have uttered six months ago. Also, I have to admit it was really sweet seeing him play around with his son after the fight. When Li'l Bis applied the armbar on his dad, I turned to my cousin and said, "That'll be me and my kid some day."

A Marketable Match Made in Heaven. Seeing Dan Hardy and GSP in the cage together made me realize what an easy fight this is to sell to the fans. Here comes Hardy, the brash, cocky Brit with his shark-teeth mouthpiece, his tats and punk rock mohawk against the humble, determined Georges St-Pierre. You couldn't put together a better good guy vs. bad guy face-off if your name were Vince McMahon. Seriously, this showdown resembles Ryu vs. Birdie in the Street Fighter video game series. I personally doubt Hardy will last as long as Jon Fitch or Thiago Alves did against GSP, but that won't deter the fans from paying to watch him get his trap shut.

Senility already, Randy? I really, really question Randy Couture's state of mind if he thinks for a second his win over Brandon Vera qualifies him for a fight against Lyoto Machida. I don't think it even puts him in line to square off with top five light heavyweights. I think a fair fight would see him get the loser of this weekends Ortiz/Griffin rematch, but no way does it justify him taking on Machida, Rua, Evans or anyone between 185 and 205 with the last name "Silva." Case closed.

Yikes, we're already on tap for two more big cards? I gotta get to predicting! More to come!

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Thoughts

2009-11-09T08:26:00.001-05:00

Strikeforce's Saturday night card marked a success for the growing promotion. It offered exciting fights, names that die hard MMA fans will flock to, and a strong mix of everything we love about the sport. Knockouts, grappling, technique and brute force.

Oh, and it had Fedor, too.

In all seriousness, Fedor's mainstream debut (let's be honest) came off very, very well, and his fight with Brett Rogers had a major "big fight" feel to it, the likes of which we saw in the buildup for this year's GSP-Penn rematch. It looked great, and the Last Emperor made a compelling case for being regarded as the top heavyweight in the world. Even though the commentary team was insistent on him being the best fighter in the world/history... more on that slant later. First, thoughts on the fights themselves.

Bigfoot Myth Debunked. In the opening round, Antonio Silva looked like he was going to prove my upset prediction right as he really tested Fabricio Werdum's chin. Those were some heavy shots, and it looked for a minute like the former UFC heavyweight was in danger of suffering another knockout loss. However, credit Werdum with being able to turn the tables in the subsequent rounds and use his BJJ acumen to stave off the loss. Perhaps if Silva didn't try to match Werdum's grappling game with his own, he would've attained the win. In any event, it was a great night for Werdum as he continues to place himself in the upper echelon of Strikeforce's heavyweight ranks.

Strikeforce's Spider. I'm gonna come out and say it right now: Gegard Mousasi is Strikeforce's answer to Anderson Silva. Lethal counterstriker, consistently cool in the cage, competes and dominates in multiple weight classes, insane win streak, it all adds up. Gegard is becoming my favorite fighter to watch behind Silva, and for the most part, he looked good Saturday. I'll say this much, Sokoudjou surprised the hell out of me with his early aggression in Round 1. He kept the Armenian Assassin on his toes and put his ground game to the test. The first round was very close. I mean Machida-Rua Round 1 close. But by the time the bell rang for the next five, it became clear how this would turn out. Sokoudjou looks impressive, but his gas tank has an ongoing leak. If he could only improve his conditioning, he'd be dynamite. Despite his early assault, Mousasi never looked scared or surprised. That eerie calm is his apparent trademark... I'm loving this guy.

Somewhere, Carlos Newton is Planning to Sue. That's all I have to say about Jason Miller's pompous entrance. If he wasn't a Chicago boy, I doubt he'd have gotten as many cheers as he did during the lengthy "Booty Sweat" dance-off. I would normally save this observation for PTN Minutiae, but considering it was the most exciting part of the 25-minute affair, it deserves the title slot. This was hardly an exciting fight and Jake Shields did little to endear himself to critics. He simply did what he had to do in order to secure the title. Miller put up more of a fight than anyone expected, and like Sokoudjou, I give him credit. It just wasn't enough to make the win happen.

The Punch (Literally) Heard 'Round the World. This was honestly the most exciting heavyweight tilt in terms of the atmosphere I've seen since Couture vs. Lesnar. Even the crowd was split, with purists backing Fedor and the loyalists behind the hometown hero from Sam's Club. Brett Rogers put up a helluva fight, even exhibiting some elementary ground game in the process. Fedor hasn't been tested like this since his days in Pride. If Rogers could have kept his energy up, who knows how it would have gone? He landed a few clean shots and left Fedor's rosy red shnoz looking worse than before. I'm surprised it's not broken, it sure as hell looked it. But Fedor showed his dominance against the big man, along with surprising agility. His tribute to the Flying Hendo Hammer looked like it would've killed a normal man if it had landed, and showed off his Sambo game amidst a barrage of fists with a nice armbar attempt. Way to keep cool under pressure. And then there's the punch itself. We've been treated to some brutal knockouts this year. But I can't recall one you could actually hear. My cousin came over Sunday to watch the fight as I'd DVR'd it, and his jaw dropped just as Rogers' frame did when he heard the punch land. It was vicious. Fedor silenced a lot of critics with this fight. I may still not agree with his management team, but the man himself is the real deal. Period.

Overall, I really enjoyed this card in spite of the middleweight snoozer. Strikeforce really got to showcase some colorful personalities and could make a strong case for future stars in the game. The show popped a 2.3 rating and averaged 3.79 million viewers, which is phenomenal for a Saturday night. It may not have topped Kimbo's prime time debut with EliteXC, but it still made a strong case for the viability of the sport and the brand itself. Keeping up the momentum is crucial to Strikeforce at this point. Here's hoping they continue to impress.

Let's see how the predictions record stands...

Event Total: 3-1 (0.750)
Career Total: 23-13 (0.639)

Still got it. PTN, Minutiae...

I'll DJ for $50... Please. I understand it's a network broadcast, and that limits what can be done in the way of entrance music or background music for that matter. But please... Scott, can we do something about the choice in ambiance? The music was a massive buzzkill for me. Even WWE has edgier tunes. I may be nitpicking here, but production values count for something, too.

While we're griping... Can we get a better announce team? Aside from Frank Shamrock and Steven Quadros, I don't know who any of these people are. They should at least know the difference between the Nogueira brothers and how to pronounce certain names.

Only Loren Coleman and I got that reference. During the Silva-Werdum fight, one of the announcers referenced the "Patterson Film." He's talking about the Roger Patterson film from 1967 which supposedly captures an actual sighting of a Sasquatch in the Pacific Northwest. 1. Way to date yourself, man. 2. Really? 3. I'm a nerd, hence why I know this.

The Red Devil Approach. Both Gegard and Fedor looked the same throughout their fights... unfazed, unafraid, almost bored. Maybe it's a camp mentality?

And now, Strikeforce's BJ Penn... In a testament to how thin Strikeforce's roster still is, Jake Shields announced his desire to pursue the welterweight title, which currently doesn't have a waist to call home. The sad thing is, it's really tough to argue with him given the number of actual weltwerweights you can think of. Here's hoping Scott Coker can use Saturday's success to get some more blood in his ranks. Some of the regulars on "Challengers" may have to step up to the main spotlight.

Nothing to be Ashamed of, Brett... Rogers seemed very tough on himself after his first loss. I understand what it means to be competitive with yourself and blame yourself in the event of a loss. But seriously, he just fell to the top heavyweight in the world and one of the finest fighters in MMA history. There's even been a case made for an immediate rematch. I think Brett ought to be very proud of those facts, but I'm not him.

Who's Next? The question is begging to be asked... for both Fedor and his Red Devil teammate Mousasi... who's next in line? Funny thing is, for once there are more options for Fedor than his colleague. In my mind, Fedor deserves an immediate shot at Alistair Overeem for the Strikeforce heavyweight title. Anything less would be silly for him. I think a number one contender's match between Brett Rogers and Fabricio Werdum could easily set up a title match with the winner of Fedor/Overeem, but after that, who is there, really? Maybe Bobby Lashley. I can see Strikeforce trying to parlay his talents the same way UFC has done with Brock Lesnar. But beyond that, good luck finding names. I'm even more lost in the case of Gegard Mousasi. How many light heavyweights are even on the Strikeforce roster? This is a quandary I wouldn't want to face.

Unbiased Opinion (For a Change). I have no problem with Strikeforce marketing Fedor as a phenom. They should, because he is. No doubt, the top heavyweight in the world. However, to call him the best fighter in the world and in history is a loaded statement. Because Dana White would say the former title belongs to his current middleweight champion, and right behind him is the welterweight king. I'm not arguing Fedor's dominance, but it's only been since 2008 he's been facing big names in his division. And like I've stated, a strong case could be made that both former UFC champions he bested were out of their element to begin with. Brett Rogers has been the only truly capable opponent he's faced since Pride's dissolution. Call him one of the best of all time, call him one of the pound-for-pound best. But don't mince words like that... both Sherdog and MMA Weekly have the 1-2-3 as Anderson, GSP and then Fedor. Not to mention the fact that neither Anderson Silva nor GSP have even looked "in trouble" for the better part of their current reigns. Fedor has been pushed by both Arlovski and Rogers. And only one of those names is relevant. Not taking anything away from the man, just saying I don't agree with the labeling, here.

So far, Strikeforce has won the race for card of the month. Three more to go, let's see if Zuffa can top this.

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episodes 7 & 8

2009-11-05T18:42:00.001-05:00

As promised, a rundown of events for the last two episodes of TUF in my standard PTN Thought Bullets:

• The constant arguing over who's a better coach between Rashad and Rampage is pretty pointless, if you ask me. The in-fighting between these two is getting a bit tiresome, as they keep coming back to the same arguments over and over. Rashad maintains Rampage doesn't care about his fighters and is selfish, and Rampage keeps calling Rashad cocky and alluding to his loss to Machida. I can pretty much predict what will happen every week from here on in. And none of it will matter since this fight just won't happen.

• I wouldn't blame Mike if he were scared to face Marcus. Even though he's a big softie, the dude looks lethal on the ground, and at a 6" differential, that's tough to overcome.

• Matt officially gets the Diego Sanchez award for weirdest member this season. Considering you've got Darrill "The Serial Killer" Schoonover, Zak "DNA" Jensen and Wes "Camera Shy" Sims in the same house, that says a lot. The dude openly admits to hearing voices in his head. Cue the joke about having blocked one too many punches with his head.

• Scott Junk is made out to be Team Rampage's greatest chance at breaking the streak. He has a good amount of experience under his belt for sure and looks good training. Sounds like the majority of the house wants him to win, even Matt's teammates. Mr. Popularity.

• Jon and Matt don't like each other. Foreshadowing.

• Wes Sims sees an available camera and unleashes his alter ego, "The Gi." In perhaps the worst re-enactment of "American Ninja" I've ever seen, Sims "scales" the wall to a cozy Matt by the pool and does more or less nothing but try to startle him.

• Let me ask you... why did this man have ninja gear ready to go?

• Matt had a conversation with his wife in his head. If I were Rashad, I'd be scared for my safety.

• The fight is competitive, but it looks like the gas tanks here are starting at about a quarter full... the second round looks like bad pantomime as Matt takes a UD win. I hardly could focus enough to really form an opinion on whether a third round was deserved or not.

• At least it's not Machida/Shogun.

• Rampage unleashes an Yngwie Malmsteen-esque fury on door made out of balsa wood. My mind hearkens back to the days of WCW when guy would get put through tables that broke cleanly in half because they were pre-sawed. I don't think this was sawed beforehand, but it clearly wasn't built to last.

• Dana says there's not much future on this show if you're a door. So... does this mean we should call Team Rampage "the Knobs?"

• Episode 8 really endears you to both fighters nicely. Marcus comes off like a big kid, but in a very lovable way. It's kinda funny to see him freak at the arachnid crawling across the floor and then howl when it's corpse is hurled at him. At least he has a sense of humor about himself to laugh afterward.

• On the flipside, Mike is shown as being extremely concerned about his wife, who's battling cancer. I've known way too many people who've had to deal with this illness, and it's an arduous, painful process for the afflicted and their kin. I have no doubts he's genuine about it and completely sympathize.

• Mike has made some scathing comments about Kimbo being allowed to bring his wife and kids on the show, but no one else being allowed to make calls out to their family. If this is true, I call bullshit in the third degree. No need for such favoritism, as it certainly hasn't been granted to any castmembers throughout the previous nine seasons.

• The guys post a cartoon of Marcus with some disparaging remarks on his door. This doesn't put him in the best of moods, and he's not likely to laugh this one off. We saw how angry he can get about stuff like that when Rashad teased him a couple episodes back. I wouldn't want to wake that sleeping giant.

• Rampage says "titties." Darrill reacts. 'Nuff said.

• Marcus ripped through his gloves. Cripes, he needs the Lesnar/Carwin treatment with some custom made XXXXL mitts.

• The fight doesn't last long once it goes to the ground. Marcus takes the back but Mike spins into guard, or so he thinks. Marcus shoots his leg over for a textbook armbar that forces Mike to verbally tap as his free arm is still trapped against Marcus' frame. Wow. That was beautiful. If a guy his height can rock a ground game like that, he'll be dangerous, and probably will take some arms home with him.

• I just wanna say, when you have legs that friggin' long, armbars are your bread and butter in Jiu-Jitsu. Marcus knows enough about the game to know that much, as it seems to be his submission of choice in training. The Darkness breaks the streak and Rampage goes wild.

• Mike's clearly hurt, but thankfully there's no permanent damage. I predict Marcus Jones is gonna kill somebody by accident.

• Time to pick the quarterfinals, and courtesy of Marcus, Rampage actually gets to sit in on the process. Rashad is certain to remind him that he only has one fighter. These two seriously never stop.

• The matches lined up are Roy vs. Justin, Brendan vs. Jon, James vs. Matt and Darrill vs. Marcus. I'll pick Roy, Brendan, James and Marcus to advance to the semis.

• Rashad and Rampage argue. Rampage is a bad coach. Rashad ran from Machida. Roll credits.

So next week we're treated to Big Country and Justin. Dana clearly doesn't like Nelson much, so he'll be very biased in his remarks. I'm curious to see if he picks up the pace with Justin, who's clearly no Kimbo Slice (that's a compliment). We're also teased at Matt pulling out and Kimbo being put back in. I'd say this is a sure thing since they've shown it all season, but since it hasn't happened yet, I'm borderline skeptical.

I will say that Marcus has looked the most impressive of anyone so far this season. Most of the fights have been fairly lackluster or just too one-sided to say "that guy's a stud." Demico and Brendan put on a pretty good show, but Marcus absolutely blew me away. He's gotta be a favorite to win it all, and he very well could.

It's just a shame that if he does make it to the finals, his coach won't be in his corner. Rampage's retirement has taken the piss out of this season big time, and the bickering between him and Rashad on camera has lost its impact since they're not gonna fight anyway. It's a letdown, I'm not gonna lie.

Now that we're into the quarter finals, I'd say this season is a mixed bag at best. There's been lots of characters but few great fights so far. We've seen some pretty shitty gas tanks and way too many lopsided affairs. Kimbo has been a bust, but with a rumored bout against Houston Alexander, he'll get at least one more chance to prove himself. That rumor alone makes me doubt he'll actually step into the fray.

Well, we're halfway there. I'll have a bottle of Jack by my side for next week's episode. Toodles.

UFC 105 Predictions

2009-11-03T08:28:00.002-05:00

November is a busy, busy month for my favorite sport. UFC 105 rings in only the third of six events due to be broadcast between the 6th and 21st. Think about it... that's a mere three weeks chock full of big names and big cards. And in the grand pantheon of things, this card seems a might underwhelming to me. Perhaps that's why it got the duke to air on Spike for free instead of PPV.

I have to admit, even though UFC 106 recently suffered the loss of it's heavyweight title fight, that card still intrigues me more due to the returns of Griffin and Ortiz as well as the recently added co-main event of Koscheck vs. Johnson. I love Randy Couture and respect his career to no end. But I have doubts about his 6-fight deal, and question his opponent for this card. Brandon Vera isn't the most exciting fighter, and I personally believe UFC is feeding him to Couture in order to assist a rebound for Captain America. If this card were to be headlined by the BJ Penn/Diego Sanchez fight originally intended, I think I'd feel better about it.

Still, a job's a job, and a free card is never a bad thing. Onto the predictions...

Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley: Pearson is coming off his TUF win, and Riley just avenged his questionable loss to Shane Nelson at UFC 101 in August. Pearson's first challenge isn't an easy one. Riley, at the ripe "old" age of 28, has 40 professional fights under his belt, and has yet to reach a point where age will catch up to him. I foresee him winning by unanimous decision in a strategic if somewhat boring fight.

Matt Brown vs. James Wilks: Pearson's fellow Team U.K. member and TUF winner James Wilks makes his debut against another TUF alum in Matt Brown. This is a tough one to call... while Wilks didn't impress much during the season, he put on a submission clinic against heavily favored DaMarques Johnson at the finale, winning by rear naked choke. In coming up against Matt Brown, though, he has a substantially more difficult opponent, as Brown can match him style for style. I see this being highly competitive with Wilks going for technique and Brown going for explosion. Ultimately, I see a shutout for Team U.K. when Brown wins by TKO in the second.

Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang: The United Kingdom's most famous fighter since Lenox Lewis looks for redemption against Denis Kang. This is a far cry from the Bisping vs. Wanderlei fight that was rumored several months ago, but it still provides for an interesting fight. Bisping's coming off the worst loss of his career vs. Dan Henderson, and a knockout that's destined to be replayed in highlight reels and TV show opening montages for years to come. Denis Kang is looking to add another plus to his win-loss column, currently standing at 1-1 in the UFC. I'll be honest, if Kang couldn't top Alan Belcher, I don't know how he'll do against Michael Bisping. I'm calling a unanimous decision win for the Brit.

Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy: I'm predicting this'll be our fight of the night, and it's the only clash on the main card that genuinely excites me. Swick comes in as a replacement for Kim Dong-hyun, himself having been replaced by Paul Daley against Martin Kampmann just a month ago. Prestige is on the line here as the winner is reported to be next in line for GSP's welterweight crown. On paper, this is a pretty even match. Both guys are riding strong win streaks and have been showing off their knockout skills. It's a very tough call, but I give a slight edge to Swick as he has been showing increased aggression in his last few outings. Having never been knocked out, it's hard to say if Hardy will succumb to a barrage of punches, and he'll definitely put up a fight of his own. I say Swick wins by split decision. Either way, this one will be a gem for sure.

Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera: This main event doesn't have me scratching my head... I'm shaking it, instead. I feel like Brandon Vera is really in a no-win position. If he tops Couture, he may rise a little in the ranks, but with names like Rua, Evans and (Thiago) Silva at the head of the line for Machida's title, he hardly surges forward with a win over a 46-year-old man, legend or not. If he loses, he surely gets knocked down several pegs to "Sub-Jardine" status, solidifying many opinions about him as a main eventer. Similarly, Couture is in a tough spot. Should he win, it's doubtful he'd be able to stand long with many of the names I just mentioned who are younger, more tactical and have substantially greater punching power. If he loses, it more or less cements his decline in Iceman-like fashion. To say I'm not excited about this fight is a gross understatement. I do like Couture, but this fight doesn't do much for him other than keep him employed. I do think he'll have the upper hand, though, as Vera has been known to struggle against more experienced fighters. I don't think he'll finish, but the Natural will win by UD.

So there you have it. A free card with a few high profile names isn't a bad thing. But with the exception of the Swick/Hardy tilt, there's very little being determined in the outcomes of these fights. Not to say they don't have potential to be good. But when compared to 100-104 and 106-108, there seems to be much less at stake in the grand scheme of things. Hey, at least it's free.

Now let's hope the next free one has a couple guys on it named Lyoto and Mauricio.

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Predictions

2009-11-02T18:57:00.001-05:00

Note: Due to a heavy travel schedule last week, I wasn't able to view the most recent TUF episode right away. To compensate, I'll condense my thoughts for last week's episode with the final prelim fight airing Wednesday night.

This is the big one Saturday. Strikeforce has put a lot of eggs into this basket, and based on the card, they're clearly hoping for a strong showing. I have to admit, while I have strong misgivings about the co-promotion with M-1 Global and how it will affect the long term health of the promotion, I'm excited about this card. Top to bottom, it's a strong lineup and makes a good case for Strikeforce's position as #2. My one hope is they'll be able to capitalize off this broadcast and promote more heavily behind their upcoming cards.

Let's get to it!

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva: The emphasis on the heavyweight division on this show doesn't surprise me. I think Coker and company is hoping this will serve as a weight class showcase, especially given the exceptionally weak fights on this season of TUF. Two out of the four main card fights are heavyweight, starting with a former UFC title contender in Fabricio Werdum and up-and-comer Antonio Silva. Werdum won his last fight in Strikeforce, but against a lackluster opponent in Mike Pyle. Silva has been on a tear, riding a six fight win streak to a 13-1 record. Granted, he has no marquee opponents on his resume save Ricco Rodriguez. However, Werdum has notorious trouble with capable knockout artists. Silva is known for his KO power, so I say he gets a TKO mid-second round.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou: I'm so stoked Mousasi gets another big platform to showcase his stuff. To me, he should be the second biggest marketed fighter in the promotion after Fedor. Even though it's a non-title fight, I don't think Sokoudjou stands a chance. To me, he's the most overrated light heavyweight to make it stateside since Pride's demise. He came into UFC being heavily touted as a guy loaded with potential. But for all his presence and cosmetic attributes, he's consistently come up short against top-tier fighters like Lyoto Machida and Renato Sobral. It'll be no different with Mousasi. I foresee the Armenian Assassin unloading his trademark barrage for another first round TKO.

Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller (Strikeforce Middleweight Championship): After successfully topping Robbie Lawler at a catchweight of 182 lbs., Jake Shields looks to return to his Shooto middleweight days in taking on Jason Miller. Miller's a tough customer with a lot of experience and wonderfully varied backgrounds. However, Jake Shields is just way, way too tough for him. Shields has been on an absolute tear with wins against notable names like Paul Daley, Yushin Okami and Carlos Condit in the last five years. Nothing against Miller, but he'll come up short and fall to a second round submission in his championship plight.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers. Well, this has been months in the making, and is Strikeforce's biggest fight to date. No argument. Rogers comes into this fight undefeated with his most recent win against Andre Arlovski. Fedor comes in... well, being Fedor. The top-ranked heavyweight in the world, the biggest name to never fight in the UFC, one of the pound-for-pound best fighters ever. And also one of the most polarizing. Up until Affliction, the argument was that Pride's biggest heavyweight had no competition. At least now he does, and the hope has to be that more contenders will step up to challenge the man. Now, Rogers is a tough guy. He clearly has the punching power. However, I don't think he has the dimensionality of Fedor. I think this fight will stay standing for a while before Fedor takes it to the ground for a rear naked choke win in the first.

I'll also predict that after this match, popular demand for Fedor to fight Alistair Overeem for the heavyweight title will be answered with a fight some time in the spring. I see Fedor winning that easily and then going onto fight Bobby Lashley. How is it I can see this trek? Simple. The pool is still very, very shallow. Whereas UFC has made a push for increased depth in its heavyweight ranks, Strikeforce has relied heavily on the name of Fedor. The trick is to get him some challengers, and short of Rogers and the two name I mentioned above, right now there just aren't a lot of options. This is part of the reason I call for Scott Coker to market Gegard Mousasi more. He's going to need to unless they want to fly through main events like Affliction did.

This isn't a make-or-break card by any means, but it calls for Strikeforce to keep up whatever momentum they gain in the process. I, for one, hope they're able to do so. Competition is nothing but good. Provided it can sustain against the 800 lb. gorilla.

UFC 104 Thoughts

2009-10-27T20:53:00.000-04:00

I don't think anyone was expecting a fight (or outcome) like we got in the main event. There are a ton of ramifications coming out of this card, and the light heavyweight division just got that much more interesting. Let's not hesitate...

Barry Impressive. I'll admit to not giving Pat Barry the benefit of the doubt going into this fight. He proved me wrong. Convincingly. He used his quickness well to avoid Hardonk's reach and managed to dominate. Hardonk just looked off here. I wouldn't be surprised if he, like the rest of us, took his opponent a little too lightly. It could also be that Barry knew how badly he needed a check in the win column. He didn't disappoint.

Dutch Death Clutch. Stefan Struve looked awesome in his win over Chase Gormley. Unless you're seeing a fight with Nogueira or Mir, it's rare to see any kind of submission attempt let alone a victory in heavyweight contests. Struve has tilted the scales to a 2-1 Octagon record, so he has to be happy.

Spaced by Bader. How Eric Schafer survived the first round with Ryan Bader, I'll never know. The guy must have a Guida-esque chin to withstand that. Bader looked good the first round, but it was clear how much gas he blew during the second. Bader has shown great knockout power, and clearly falls on his wrestling acumen when faced with a guy who won't go down. This wasn't the most exciting fight, but it was an improvement over his semi-final fight on TUF, which I still remember fast forwarding through while yawning. Bader's undefeated thus far, making his immediate post-TUF career the most successful thus far.

Catch This! Anthony Johnson won pretty much how I thought he would: with very heavy hands. It was yet another domineering performance, and honestly, I don't think it'd have been much different if he came in at the proper weight. At least he had a good reason for his failure to make weight. This is, however, his second time he's failed to make weight (the first being his unsuccessful outing against Rich Clementi), and even though he's resolute this won't happen again, sooner or later he really needs to move to 185. Still, I see him being a possible championship contender in either class. As for Yoshida, I don't know what to say. He needs to hope Ed Silva gives him a match with a grappler next time.

Daddy's Home. This was the best I've ever seen Joe Stevenson. I thought Spencer Fisher would be able to control him, but Maestro Greg Jackson is clearly the Jesus Christ to Joe Daddy's Lazarus. If Stevenson keeps on winning like this, it won't be long before he receives his second lightweight title shot. I have a feeling this is in the cards, somehow.

He Finally Made the PPV Broadcast. Can we Shut Up, Now? UFC's resident redheaded stepchild, Yushin Okami, made his first televised appearance since defeating the late Evan Tanner last year. However, he was unsuccessful this go-round. The last guy to beat Anderson Silva looked totally outmatched against a very game Chael Sonnen, who joins Joe Stevenson in having his best career performance to date on the card. Sonnen completely smothered "Lightning," and perhaps quelled the calls of a rematch between Okami and Silva. I hope.

Time for a new Dental Plan. Yes, I know Gleison Tibau came in overweight. However, like the Johnson/Yoshida fight, I don't think it would have affected the result if he was within weight. Tibau's grappling clearly outworked Josh Neer, much like Kurt Pellegrino did back in August. I can't say I'm surprised. I was hoping he'd stick that armbar from the back mount, but no such luck.

Raising Cain. Cain Velasquez looked absolutely dominant in his fight with Ben Rothwell. Color me impressed. Rothwell is no pushover, and he fell prey to a 10-8 round before the stoppage. It's hard to say whether it was premature or not, but I think it was far more justified in the first round. That said, I don't think the outcome would have been any different had the fight went on much longer.

Clearly MMA Judges have Poor Vision Plans. As if to say, "what fight were they watching?" Seriously. I'm not going to say it was an absolute thrashing, because it wasn't. It was close, much closer than this month's spectacular Ben Hendeson/Donald Cerrone fight. But if I were scoring, I'd be calling for a new champion. Like much of the online MMA community, I'm totally baffled by this result. I felt Shogun fought a tactical, strategic fight that should have guaranteed him victory. He easily won rounds 4 and 5. 2 and 3 could go to Machida (though I feel 2 is questionable). That leaves the first round. I found Shogun to be the aggressor for sure. Now I like Machida, and I think he's one of the best out there. But he was outdone Saturday night, plain and simple. Shogun fought wonderfully and became the first fighter to take Machida to the limit. One way or another, Machida lost rounds in Los Angeles, which hasn't happened yet in the UFC. Machida almost looked stunned throughout the course of the fight, as his game had been tactically dissected. For the first time, he looked inferior to his opponent. Some people have said it's not a robbery, but let's be fair... the wrong man won. And he still has the belt that belongs to another. To me, that's robbery. As much as I enjoy Machida's fights, I'll be rooting for the challenger when they meet again. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

Well, let's take a look at my record for this event and how it affects my total standing:

Prelims: 1-1 (0.500)
PPV Total: 3-2 (0.600)
Event Total: 4-3 (0.571)
Career Total: 20-12 (0.625)

For what it's worth, I'd rather Machida have lost than have my average buoyed.

PTN, Minutiae...

Gaining Weight. This is the second consecutive PPV that has featured two catchweight fights. Of course, Franklin vs. Belfort was at least planned in advance.

Get the Stopwatch. If Yoshiyuki Yoshida ever is put into a fight with Thiago Alves, I'll begin wondering what he did to piss off Ed Silva.

Jackson is the Man. Now that Brock Lesnar is out of the UFC 106 event, and Jackson has shown what he can do with an on-the-skids contender like Stevenson, I officially predict an upset at UFC 108 when Shane Carwin takes on Lesnar. He's like MMA's answer to Rick Rubin; taking raw talent that seems past its prime and refining it like Rubin did with Johnny Cash and Metallica.

Seriously... Can we stop bellyaching about Yushin Okami? Please?

Another Mazzaggatti Classic. Steve Mazzaggatti continues to baffle beyond belief with his decisions. It seemed like Ben Rothwell was more worse for wear in the first round than when the fight was actually stopped. He must have the same vision plan as the judges...

Joe Rogan, You've Won Me Over Again. I am now more than ever a Joe Rogan fan after his jabs at the guys from "Entourage." I fell out of love with the show hard this season, and hearing him rag on a couple of one-trick pony actors brought a huge smile to my face.

No Gimmicks Needed. Cain Velazquez has some of the absolute best post-fight poses I've ever seen. I already loved the waggling finger and the folded arms as if to say, "And what!" But his shrug after beating Rothwell was priceless.

I'm no Lip Reader... But I think Ben Rothwell said, "What?"

Ha-do-ken! I love that Joe Rogan compared Machida to a character from Street Fighter. I have to say, I do think half his statements are ripped from the Ryu book of philosophy.

He Shouldn't have won, but... I can't fault Lyoto Machida for anything at all. He didn't say or do anything unbecoming of a champion. While I strongly disagree with his assertion that he was the superior fighter, he was also quick to agree to an immediate rematch. I give him a ton of credit for that. A lot of guys would be quick to push aside their most recent challenger. I even predict Anderson Silva would dance around a rematch. He may not have deserved the win, but Machida is still a class act.

OK. Let it be known. He's back. Shogun looked great. Granted, he didn't go out of his way to finish the fight, but given Machida's counterstrike style, he had the perfect gameplan going in. Not only that, but this was confirmation that the Shogun of old is truly back. He looked sharp as ever, had no trouble keeping his gas tank full, and really fought well. It wasn't a blowout, but it was enough to convince the masses. I'm looking forward to this rematch, and he's given me plenty of reason to root for him. Everyone loves a comeback.

So the biggest story coming out of this is the rematch promised by Dana White and agreed to by both Machida and Rua. Many pundits and fans have spoken out about having this be a free match on Spike. Permit me to throw my hat in the ring. I wouldn't be surprised if they listen. As much shit as people like to give Dana White, he has an excellent track record as far as appeasing disgruntled fans. Whether it was Shamrock/Ortiz III for free or nixing Henderson/Franklin II, he tends to do what's right. Given his personal feelings on the fight, I would put good money on him giving this one away and sparking a dynamite rating. Expect it to happen during a Strikeforce event.

I really, really hope Rua wins.

Oh, and please... enough about Yushin Okami.

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episode 6

2009-10-22T11:01:00.000-04:00

This show is getting less likable for me every week. Probably because the individuals featured are becoming less likable. Except for Rashad and Marcus.

Can't really write much due to a busy schedule this week, but let's just leave it at another win for Rashad, another poor performance by Team Rampage, more silly jokes by Rampage alluding to Schoonover's chest, and two fighters with tons of baggage.

At least it started off somewhat competitively between both guys, but when Zak got kneed and then used his face for a focus mitt, it signaled the beginning of the end. There is really no reason he couldn't have gotten outta that triangle if he knew the first thing about a good defense. Applying pressure downward is just going to help the guy pull you in, adjust his leg lock and snuff you out. Stupid.

Zak comes off as a pushover in this episode. Sure, he's Wes Sims' whipping boy (why is Sims still talking?), but it's not like he's doing anything to help himself. Schoonover comes off like a borderline headcase between his drinking, scary tattoo and going head-to-head against Rampage. Some people will say he's standing up for himself. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened as DeMarques Johnson got in Michael Bisping's face last season, but there's something scary about Schoonover and his demeanor. He doesn't seem like the nerdy guy in the first episode who got railed by Rampage for his chest.

The jokes are getting stupider and stupider. Jackson and company should spend more time coaching and less time flexing their artistic chops and graffiti skills.

But the ever-polarizing Kimbo is the one who loses the most face in this episode. He's shown jumping for joy when Zak gets cut open. Way to be a team player. Stay classy, Kimbo.

What the hell kinda nickname is "Linderman," anyway?

Well, we have four fighters left. Mike Wessel and Matt Mitrione for Team Rashad, and Marcus Jones and Scott Junk for Team Rampage. It looks like we'll have both first round fights next week... I predict it'll be Wessel vs. Junk and Mitrione vs. Jones, with Wessel and Junk pulling off the exciting fight they're promoting.

I hope next week is more fight-driven. I'm really beginning to dislike these people.

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episode 5

2009-10-15T18:23:00.001-04:00

Team Rampage is cursed. Either that or there's something to be said for a leader's ability to assemble a team and make it work. Yeah, it's probably the latter. This week's show was rife with crybabies, weirdos and 80's references. It was like an episode from Bizarroworld.

So, let's get right to it and get it outta the way. PTN, thought bullets:

• We start with Matt Mitrione griping about his shoulder and asking his coach if he can have a cortisone shot. I'm glad they aired this segment for practical reasons. It shows how vastly different this sport is from more conventional sports where such things are not only condoned but encouraged. Masking the pain will not eliminate it, and Rashad walks away with another reason to be wary of Matt.

• Hearing Rashad call Matt a meathead made me smile. How Archie Bunker of you, Sugar.

• Did I just call Rashad "Sugar?" I need a drink.

• Rashad and his coaches are filling in big Marcus that he may be the next fight. Marcus is all lit up like a third string quarterback getting put in the game at last. You know this can't end well.

• The focus this week seems to be put largely on Zak, the last pick who almost got ousted for the cameraman. Even his own coach says all he's got going for him are being a big guy and his wrestling. Yikes. Way to motivate your fighters, Lombardi...

• Zak shows a lot of frustration during Rampage's wall walking instruction. He keeps on saying "I can't" like that scared kid at the playground who's made it to the top of the slide but is too nervous to go down. The only things missing are the shakes and tears. If you really can't, you're pretty much shit out of luck in a fight.

• Next we get our first real dialogue from Wes Sims since the season premiere. It's not pretty as he accuses Zak of leaving his "Jensens" in the shower. Zak admits to blowing his nose but consistently denies using the hammerfist on his johnson. I can't believe I'm typing this.

• If he did, at least it wasn't all over a sushi platter. Painful memories from season 8...

• Remember, "Wes Sims never lets the truth get in the way of a good story." I'm just sayin'...

• Rampage says he wouldn't be embarrassed about spanking it in the shower. "Don't slip on it." I guess I'm kinda glad I don't live in the Jackson household...

• Matt continually reinforces his crybaby attitude, or as Rashad calls him, a "drama king." Watching him stand by himself in a ring throwing punches and kicks like a Muay Thai amputee was fairly amusing, especially given his cellophane cast.

• I like Rashad's coach's response to Matt's ongoing antics... ten push-ups--sore shoulder and all--each time he whines. Evans is clearly concerned about his team's sweep. Apparently, the only soft thing he wants on his team is Roy Nelson's gut.

• Scary moment during Team Rampage's session which leads to Zak blacking out in a Wes Sims triangle choke. It's not seen clearly through the camera lens what exactly happened, but the mic clearly picks up the snoring that occurs when trying to breathe through the nose is obstructed. I've heard that sound a couple of times while rolling, even made it myself. But never that loud. I've never seen someone black out from a choke... it's a common rule taught to all grapplers: when you're training, you tap before it gets too much. Same rule applies for a fight. Why endanger your health? It's even stupider during a training session. Zak doesn't look like Team Rampage's greatest hope for a rebound, that's for sure.

• An even scarier thought occurs to me at this moment... with all the focus being put on Zak and Matt this week, are these two duds destined to fight? Sweet Jesus Christ...

• Matt is shown grappling and moving around just fine. My first thought is, "shoulder injury my ass." Mike Van Arsdale speaks with disdain about Matt's "owie," and reinforces it my showing his permanently maligned right shoulder. Goddamn, that looks awful... If there was any hope of Matt receiving sympathy from his coaches or viewers, it went up in smoke with Mike's showing of skin.

• Rashad flat out tells Matt he can't ice his shoulder before drills. I'm liking him more and more as a coach.

• I'm sitting here in bewilderment while Matt literally references He-Man and the Masters of the Universe action figures. What did I just hear? So apparently he played toy surgeon as a child like that warped neighbor in Toy Story, putting Ram-Man's arm on someone else's frame.

• Dude just said he wanted Cringer's arm. Then reneged and said he'd prefer Battle Cat's. Wow. If he wasn't such a toolkit in training sessions, I might actually like the kid.

• Back at the house, Zak is still a target of verbal jabs. Of all people, Kimbo tells him to just laugh it off. Kimbo Slice, voice of reason. Then again, if anyone in the house is used to criticism, it'd be him.

• At the fight announcement, Rashad gleams with evil as he picks the fight. I could see him twirling a Snidely Whiplash mustache at this point. He goes and picks Justin Wren to take on Wes Sims. Marcus looks like he just got laid off. Rashad tries to console "big baby," but big man is pissed. The show seems to be angling that he'll defy some odds and really get aggressive in the cage.

• Back in the house, Kimbo continues to go on about getting another shot on the show. You know these type of conversations had to take place ad nauseum, but let's face it: if it doesn't happen down the line, why show Kimbo mentioning it every other episode?

• God hates us all when Justin and Sims weigh in. I refuse to comment further.

• Justin is an accomplished wrestler, but Wes does have a lot more experience. Thing is, he doesn't have the brains to complement that tenure as a fighter.

• The fight begins, and the folks at Hammerhouse have to be cringing as Wes gets taken town with ease. Team Rampage again shows its total lack of a ground game as Justin passes Wes's guard into full mount and an arm triangle. In a touch of irony, Wes refuses to tap, much like Zak did earlier to Wes's own triangle choke. Herb Dean begins raising Wes's hand to see where he's at... and Goddamn, that is one super-tight choke. Rampage yells for Wes to get out... OK, how, genius? The man's not breathing. Wes pulls a Zak and passes out. The streak continues...

• Rampage references the golden era of the WWF when Hulk Hogan would be caught in a sleeper hold and the ref would raise his arm to check on him. He was hoping for Wes's hand to shoot up on the third drop and result in a big time "Hulk Up." No such luck.

• Wes Sims isn't referring to himself in the third person anymore. This guy belongs on The Real World. Not TUF.

• Rampage again doesn't get in the cage afterward. Wow... Rashad tries to help up Sims who brushes off the advances. Another Rashad/Rampage confrontation leads to Evans calling out Rampage for his refusal to get in the cage after these losses. Rashad calls Rampage "selfish," and for once, Jackson has nothing to say in response.

Well, this is a lofty claim, but Wes Sims officially offered up the worst performance on Team Rampage thus far. There, I said it. Sure, Shivers was unable to keep his wind, but at least he never went down that bad. Even Kimbo lasted a full round before losing by LTKO. That was just sad. Even sadder is Rampage's continuing decline as a coach and likable human being.

Next week, it appears Kimbo gets his big break. And Darrill finally goes ballistic over the titty jokes. Oh boy...

UFC 104 Predictions

2009-10-14T08:46:00.001-04:00

UFC 104 kicks off a 3-month stretch of title fight cards for the sport's premiere promotion, two of which are held by current top 10 pound-for-pound fighters, all three of which are very, very intriguing to watch. I'll be perfectly honest, I like the challengers that have lined up for Machida, Penn and Lesnar. Whether or not they can be beaten is the big question.

This card also features the UFC debut of a potential force in the heavyweight division not not named Roy or Kimbo. Considering he's going up against the guy who was slated to fight the current #1 contender at UFC 106, you could see the makings of a future challenger, here.

From top to bottom, I really, really like this card. I think it just offers a good mix of action and technical battles. If it comes off as good as it looks on paper, we could be talking a potential event of the year contender. Factor in another two undercard fights broadcast free on Spike, and you have all the more reason to like this event. Color me excited! Let's get to the main card predictions!

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida: The last time Yoshiyuki Yoshida was seen on an TV screen, he was getting his bell rung by Josh Koscheck in one of the best knockouts of 2008. However, what we didn't see was his first round submission over Brandon Wolff at UFC 98, which took place on the non-televised preliminary card. However, he has his hands full with a guy who has been racking up impressive knockout victories and has only lost to an accomplished BJJ black belt and a series of eye pokes. Anthony Johnson is my pick for welterweight to watch. He has great wrestling, but his greatest strength is his explosive striking. In essence, he's very, very similar to Josh Koscheck. Being a Judoka, Yoshida is very methodical, which doesn't bode well considering Johnson's fire. Johnson by first round TKO.

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher: This has potential to be fight of the night, no question. It's a close, close fight to call... Fisher has been on a tear, currently riding a three-fight win streak. Joe Stevenson abandoned a one-dimensional stand-up game that lost him three fights against BJ Penn, his most recent and upcoming challengers. In doing so, he looked like a different human being against Nate Diaz. It's tough to give the edge to either guy in terms of striking, wrestling or submissions. Fisher may have a slight edge in his Muay Thai training. Even their camps are top of the heap, as Fisher fights out of Militech Fighting Systems while Stevenson recently made the leap to Jackson's Submission Fighting. Damn. Short of flipping a coin, I pick Fisher to win this one by split decision. He's been on a tear, and momentum can be huge.

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer: Both guys are coming off of losses. Tibau to Melvin Guillard, Neer to Kurt Pellegrino. On paper, this is a pretty good fight. But I see Neer coming up short. I was present for his fight against Pellegrino, and I saw how he struggled against a guy with advanced grappling. In fact, when it comes to BJJ black belts, he doesn't fare well at all. He's been defeated by both Diaz brothers, so I suspect his wrestling isn't enough to combat good escapes and ground control. Tibau by unanimous decision.

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell: This should be an intriguing heavyweight clash. These guys are similar in expertise yet different in approach. The question comes down to whether or not Velasquez's wrestling can smother Rothwell on the ground. Rothwell is the biggest heavyweight Velasquez has faced to date, so I question whether Cain will be able to toss him around or take him down as easily as he did with Cheick Kongo. The other factor you have to acknowledge is the vast discrepancy in experience. Kongo proved tougher to put away than Velasquez expected in his unanimous decision win. Rothwell is yet another guy out of the Militech camp with a well-rounded game in striking, wrestling and submissions. I think he'll be too much for Velasquez, pulling out a win by submission in the third.

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship): This is the one everyone's eyes should be locked on, no question. There are, however, plenty of questions going into the fight... will Machida's elusive style neutralize Shogun's aggression? Is this Shogun circa Pride 2006? Or was his last big win due to a legend's continual decline? Will Machida's punching power be enough to floor Shogun? Will Shogun's striking speed be enough to catch Machida? I'm a huge fan fo this fight for a variety of reasons. First off, the UFC is in a no-lose position no matter who wins. Both fighters come in with strong fan bases; Rua's longtime hangers-on from his Pride Grand Prix glory days and Machida's new love affair with UFC fans. Both fighters have extremely credible records on paper. Both have proven to be exciting when the time calls for it. It's the top light heavyweight of yesteryear versus the current king of 205. While Mauricio Rua might not have been the first choice to take on the Dragon (that distinction was to belong to one of our two current TUF coaches), he certainly presents just as interesting a chess match. Perhaps more so than either Rampage or Rashad. To me, the biggest question in all this is which Shogun is gonna show up? Pride's golden boy, or the cadaver that fought Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman. It's hard to say Rua's back based on his last fight. It was a first round TKO against Chuck Liddell, who is inarguably not the fighter he once was. Now, my thinking is as follows: If the lackluster Rua with bad knees and questionable gas tank shows up, Machida will make quick work of him. But if Pride Rua shows up, you have a fight. A fight that goes to decision in favor of the Dragon. Machida may not be unbeatable as he himself believes, but he clearly has refined his style to work in a cage. I think we'll probably find something in between... Rua has never been in a 5-round war. Neither has Machida, however, Machida has a style that conserves energy and effort until needed. I think Rua goes down in the 4th to a TKO victory, due to a lack of "intelligent defense."

Then there are the two undercard fights we have airing free on spike. Real quick my predictions:

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer: Bader by Unanimous Decision.
Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry: Hardonk by first round KO.

I'm very, very excited for this card like I mentioned. I think it will have some interesting ramifications all around, especially for the two highest weight classes. Most of all, I like the overall dynamic of fighters on board for this one. You have UFC veterans, up-and-comers in the sport, legends from Pride and the IFL, and even some TUF blood thrown in as well. It's a very diverse card from top to bottom, and I'm expecting it to be one for the ages.

WEC 43 Thoughts

2009-10-13T08:35:00.001-04:00

Goddamn, I love this promotion. I really hope whatever financial issues it is encountering are resolved. I can understand how a major MMA promotion not named "UFC" could struggle, and there are a lot of arguments out there for the dissolution of WEC into it's big brother.

If ever there was a statement made to keep this promotion alive and well, it came Saturday night. Even the lightweight division, which I feel doesn't hold the same merit as UFC's 155 lb. division, shone as bright as ever in the way of yet another fight of the year contender.

WEC is an excellent promotion. I'm conflicted about merging its weight divisions into the UFC. Sure, it will give the fighters more exposure, but how much when you have four additional divisions to promote? How do you balance those scales?

A topic for another time. Onto the fights!

Angel of Breath. Cheesy starter, but that's what Damacio Page was as he applied that choke on Will Campuzano. A hot start that ended just as quickly as it started just over a minute into the first round. Page continues to ascend the ranks and make a strong statement for himself as a future bantamweight title contender. He also just handed Campuzano his first career loss. Though coming to a fighter of Page's caliber, that's hardly a slam on the newcomer.

To the Wire. The Assuncao/Jabouin fight was nice and competitive between both guys. Jabouin clearly won the first round by knocking down Assuncao twice, but Assuncao's positional advantages and submission attempt in the subsequent rounds locked this victory for him. Both Rafael Assuncao and Yves Jabouin looked solid throughout. I don't agree with one of the judges giving Jabouin all three rounds, unless he/she really ranks defense above control. Bizarre.

I Could Barely Pronounce your Name Before. Now I'll Never Forget it. Wow, this has gotta be a contender for upset of the year. Mackens Semerzier just made a name for himself by submitting a guy with a 12-1 record (now 12-2), a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, the last IFL featherweight champion, a guy who has trained with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, taught Georges St-Pierre some BJJ trickery, and also just happens to be the third best featherweight in the world. Y'know, behind the guy with the title and kid from California. That was impressive. Was it a Serra-esque fluke or the arrival of something big in WEC? I can't wait to find out.

The Streak Stays Alive. Dave Jansen and Rich Crunkilton really gutted it out in a solid three-round tilt. Both guys were clearly breathing fumes at the dead end, but man did they stick it out with each other. Crunkilton looked tired at the end, but other than that showed no signs of cage rust after a lengthy lay-off. Good effort by both guys. Incidentally, what was up with the referee missing the obvious low blow/reaction and then standing Jansen up over and over again? Is he trying to top Steve Mazzagatti for bad calls?

Damn. Scott Jorgensen looked absolutely nasty in his TKO win over Noah Thomas. It was short, sweet and brutalicious. Nice escape from a triangle choke that hearkened to Anderson Silva's win over Travis Lutter... only not as effective, clearly.

And that was for the Interim Title! With their sixth title fight this year, WEC managed to produce their third fight of the year contender alongside Miguel Torres vs. Takeya Mizugaki and Mike Brown vs. Urijah Faber II. These guys put on a clinic, utilizing every possible element in MMA's various arts, and pushing each other to the limit. Honestly, this could have gone either way on the scorecards. The second and third rounds clearly went to Henderson, who controlled very well from in the guard and landed some solid shots. The latter rounds were owned by Cerrone, who stepped up his game and got more prolific with his ground game and submission attempts. Who won the first round? Such a tough question, as it could easily be considered a draw... I go with Henderson, though. Why? While Cerrone attempted several submissions, Henderson spent a greater amount of time vertical, trying to rain down blows from above. An argument could be made either way. But even Cerrone himself has admitted he felt Henderson won the fight. I'd be hard-pressed to argue a better fight for the calendar year, thus far. Aside from the aforementioned WEC title fights, the only other one that even comes close is Sanchez vs. Guida. Amazing performances. Amazing resilience. Both guys deserve all the accolades they receive for that gem. As for Jamie Varner... he may not have the Cowboy riding into town, but he still has a fight on his hands.

All in all, a night of very competitive, entertaining fights with some surprising finishes. This is a card that any promotion would be proud to put on, and it makes a massive case for WEC to continue living independent of UFC. I'll be watching that main event over and over for quite a few months to come.

As for the main card fights themselves, I whiffed on the main event but called the correct winners for each of the other fights. Here are the stats:

Event Total: 3-1 (0.750)
Career Total: 16-9 (0.640)

Now with the announcement of WEC's intentions to run monthly fight cards starting with November's card, which is headlined by Mike Brown's third title defense against Jose Aldo, I'm really excited. I plan on soaking up these free fights as often as possible, and stand by my claim that WEC has consistently put on the most entertaining fights this year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for UFC's little brother, and hope it stays strong.

Especially after a night like this!

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episode 4

2009-10-08T19:17:00.001-04:00

Finally, a competitive fight. Finding one this season has been like finding a needle in a haystack. The overall theme of the show so far has been one of intrigue and drama. (How will Kimbo do? How will Rashad and Rampage behave? What's the over under on Wes Sims lying again?) That has quickly shifted to the prospect of a Team Rashad shut-out, coinciding with Rampage's frustration. So, let's get to it with...

PTN, thought bullets:

• We pick up where last week ended with Kimbo dejected and Roy Nelson rubbing his "big ol' belly," as Rampage would put it. Nelson goes on the dickhead offensive, trying to hug an angry Jackson. Nelson gets a shove for his troubles and an under-the-breath fat comment. Nelson is well on his way to filling the void left by Tim Sylvia in terms of style and attitude.

• Nelson bumps bellies with his teammates. That just happened.

• Kimbo reflects on his loss and vows improvement. I'll give Kimbo this much, he keeps a positive attitude. This season has done a lot to paint his reputation as favorable. His skills as a fighter, as I've mentioned before, are the bigger question.

• This likable nature is reinforced further when Marcus Jones is found in the hallway drenched. Kimbo immediately tries to nurture the big man and fan him with a towel. This was the big tease of the week: will Marcus be able to compete or will Kimbo take his place? This was a massive letdown in all honesty. We never get an answer as to Marcus' condition, and for all intents and purposes, Kimbo remains in limbo.

• I should copyright that rhyme.

• This is the third time in four episodes we've seen Marcus in questionable condition. It could be the UFC is showing this footage to foreshadow a returning Slice, but after this week's teaser, I'm skeptical.

• Seeing Rashad motivated for a full sweep was cool, especially when it came to the strategic planning session. I don't know how many TUF coaches have planned this far out, but it shows the widening gap between coaching styles in Rashad and Rampage.

• It was interesting to see Justin Wren politely request he not fight Scott Junk as planned due to their friendship. Before Rashad even uttered the name "Jardine," my mind tracked back a few months to the build-up for the Jackson vs. Jardine fight, and Rashad's very public reluctance to fight his friend and teammate. Sure enough, he referenced the same incident himself to the camera. Rashad and his coaches promised Wren they'd reconsider the fight.

• This was also a nice bit of TUF history coming full circle, as Rashad and Jardine were opponents in the Season 2 semi-finals. To see how their bond has grown since that fate-changing fight has been a nice little footnote to the show's canon.

• We get a little insight into two fighters who could be game changers for Team Rashad, namely Scott Junk and Marcus Jones. Rampage sings Junk's praises as being a legit tough guy, and admittedly he does look solid. Rampage also takes time to talk up Marcus' strength. At his size, I don't think that's in question. The bigger variable is "how healthy can he stay?" Shit, if Wes Shivers found himself doubled over and gasping like a fish out of water, how Marcus will fare considering he's A) nearly passed out in training, B) apparently tweaked his knee (though this is questionable) and C) is getting cold sweats for no discernible reason.

• Somehow, Matt Mitrione thinks it's perfectly alright to tell a member of the opposing team about Rashad's planned fight lineup. Speculation runs abound that he's scared of fighting Marcus. OK... so, talk to one of your own teammates, guy! Seriously, the man can't have too much upstairs if he thought this was kosher.

• The loose-lipped Mitrione is quickly bestowed the title of "Snitch" and apologizes to Rashad. Here we see another difference in coaching... Rashad responds with confusion and bewilderment. I get the impression if this were Rampage, the response would be far more explosive.

• We have our fourth fight in Brandon Schaub vs. Demico Rogers. Now this oughta be good. Schaub seems to be a solid overall athlete and Demico is a very good wrestler. Rampage jests that he almost didn't pick Demico because he looks and fights like a bigger version of Rashad. Funny.

• Rampage admitting that he's having really shameful thoughts is kinda telling. There's a lot being shown that adds up to his personality as being fun and affable, yet easily frustrated when things don't go his way. Recall last year when he came unhinged after his loss to Forrest Griffin. Here we see him taking a severe ass-kicking in the competition. You have to wonder how much this played into his decision to focus on acting.

• I'm not justifying the above at all. Rather, I think it's justified in Rampage's mind. This is really jarring to watch because honestly, I love Rampage as a fighter and a character. I guess his negative side comes out just as easily as his comical side.

• Again, the differentiating coaching styles are further emphasized in the locker room. Rampage and crew show up minutes before the fight while Rashad and his coaches are with Schaub from the word go. I'm having flashbacks to Season 7 where Rampage showed up after the fight announcement because he overslept after a night of watching movies. He's a natural fighter, but he just doesn't seem to have the discipline commonly associated with modern MMA.

• Again, this is a precursor of things to come. I can just feel it.

• The above scenario isn't leaving Rogers with a warm feeling... I don't blame him. I have some inkling of what coach support can do. It's huge... I'll explain later.

• The fight is pretty aggressive and Demico looks really, really good in the takedown game. Even on the ground, he looks strong, passing the guard easily into side control and maintaining a good position until he goes for mount. Mount is tricky for big guys... you have to keep your opponent pinned down solid. I'm almost 6'2", and have pretty long legs. In cases like that, it's tough to keep your weight pressed down and still maintain a vertical posture, which looks like it happened hear. Schaub is able to scramble out of the mount and wind up in Demico's guard. From here, he passes and leaves Demico scrambling with a wide open neck. Cue the anaconda choke, and damn... it is tight. A tapout later leaves Team Rampage 0-4. Ouch.

• Rampage asks if he just tapped out to that choke. Yes. It was an anaconda, and I can pretty much verify that with the exception of the D'Arce choke, it's the tightest no gi choke in grappling. Not pleasant at all.

• The scene that follows is disheartening. Now, you could argue that if Rampage were in good grace with Zuffa right now, they'd edit around this somehow. But I honestly don't know how you could downplay it... Rampage doesn't even get off his chair to console his fallen fighter. He stays put and leaves that duty to Rashad. Wow. Just wow.

• In a twist of irony, we have li'l Rashad consoling big Rashad. Something fitting there in a metaphorical sense, but I'll leave that for you to decipher.

• Rampage finally communicates with his fighter outside the cage, gently criticizing him for not sticking with a ground n' pound gameplan. It's not overbearing, but in the first few moments after a loss, I can only imagine what kind of taste that must have left in Demico's mouth.

• Rampage calls a team meeting and vows no more losses, instructing his coaches to focus on the fighters strengths rather than their weaknesses. This seems so counter-intuitive to me, I think I need a scotch.

• I really thought Demico looked good and controlled most of the fight. He made a wrestler's mistake of leaving his neck too exposed and paid for it. But on the whole, he's got a lot of genuine potential. This was the best fight on the show thus far and offers hope for improved contests.

In the second half of this episode, you pretty much forget Kimbo's involved at all. The paradigm has shifted to the dynamic between coaches, and man, is it telling. Frank Hyden at MMA Torch had an excellent analogy in his review that I'll let speak for itself:

"Rampage not consoling Demico after his loss speaks a lot to Rampage's character as a coach. Some people can't coach, Rampage is one of them. Being a bad coach doesn't mean that you're a bad fighter, it just means that you can't teach. It doesn't make you more or less of a fighter. Michael Jordan might be the best basketball player of all time (a debatable topic, to be sure), but he's horrible as a GM. I really, really like Rampage, he's such an entertaining personality. However, the fact is, he can't coach worth a damn."

Couldn't have put it better myself.

Permit me to step on my soapbox and relate a moment to the importance of support. As I've mentioned, I train in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and have been at it for a year. My teacher is a black belt under Renzo Gracie, and is a phenomenal coach. I saw him corner my classmates in a tournament once, and marveled at his technical expertise, ability to communicate clearly and eagerness to support us in both victory and defeat. It makes a huge difference in team confidence for the competitors and spectators.

I cannot for one second imagine him abandoning any of us the way Rampage did with Demico. And yes, I'll use the word "abandon." The role of a teacher, even in disgust, is to be supportive. That's why teaching and coaching martial arts and fighting isn't for everyone.

I foresee more of Rampage coming unglued in the weeks to come. He has very few true studs on his team, and if he does manage to snare any victories, they will be few and far between.

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episode 3

2009-10-01T21:12:00.001-04:00

Wow.

I'm kinda speechless right now. I have to wonder if the Kimbo Curse has officially followed the UFC and made its way into TUF. The Kimbo Curse, for those of you who don't know, mandates that if Kimbo's name is attached to a fight, two things will inevitably happen:

1. A ton of hype will go into that fight.

2. That fight will never live up to said hype.

I think informed MMA fans would have expected Kimbo to underperform at some level. However, I don't think any of us expected to succumb to LTKO. "Love Tap Knock Out."

I can't credit either guy with a great performance, but let me get to that below... PTN, thought bullets.

• I'm having a tough time following Kimbo's line of thinking displayed at the beginning. His "Enemy/Inner Me" monologue was hardly Shakespearean. Also, it would be nice to know exactly what his inner me has done to wrong his heavily bearded outer me. 'Cause I have no friggin' clue.

• The longer this opening goes on, the more I want to ask Kimbo to leave the Zen speak for Diego Sanchez.

• Kimbo says he'll put Kimbo to rest when he shaves the beard. I'm wondering if anyone in the house is anxious to get an electric shaver and drug him upon hearing this.

• Kimbo's agent reportedly had a clause in his contract that nobody fuck with the man's beard. Wow. I guess he's MMA's equivalent to ZZ Top.

• Team Rashad's coaches still don't know what to make of Roy Nelson. Teaching him has proven tricky at best, and Rashad thinks he may be too independent for his own good. I guess when you don't fit the "traditional" mold of a professional fighter, you could over-compensate by trying to be a bit too individualistic.

• The housemates are probably spot-on in acknowledging that were the fight a PPV main event, Kimbo would get the lion's share of the payday. My thoughts drift to Brock Lesnar's debut as a then-unproven commodity, and more significantly, Gina Carano's oversized purse for her loss to Cris Cyborg.

• In all fairness to Kimbo, it's not as if he demands such ludicrous amounts. We have YouTube and EliteXC for building the pseudonym that used to be Kevin Ferguson into MMA's biggest hype machine.

• It was funny to see how Keith Jardine's presence in the gym set off a chain reaction that almost led to our first fist fight outside the Octagon this season. Jardine wasn't even involved directly, but was rather used by Rashad as a talking point to irk his rival coach. It was interesting to see Rashad seemingly prod then retreat when Rampage began the verbal assault.

• Marcus Jones is not gonna last. That was my first thought when I saw him limping along. I began having flashbacks of this enormous dude huffing and puffing for his life after a basic conditioning drill. More on this later.

• He also seems like the biggest kitten in the house as his sensitivity was quickly pointed out by his coach and his housemates. He must also be the first aspiring MMA fighter/gardener I have ever heard of.

• Kimbo is definitely being painted as very humble this episode. Which is good for him, because in spite of his stigma with MMA purists, at least people can turn around and appreciate his personality.

• Before he goes all thuggish talking about guns and the streets.

• Rampage remains this season's highlight with his one-liners. His trash talk on James McSweeney and Roy Nelson's feet not getting wet in the shower were cliche at best, but his delivery is so spectacular, I can't help but laugh.

• Then he broke out the shaved dome. I legit looked at the screen and said, "Oh, no he didn't..."

• The fight begins tentatively. Both guys feel each other out on the feet and Kimbo begins throwing some stiff jabs. Pressuring Roy against the fence, he's managing to do a much better job of avoiding the takedown than he did with James Thompson.

• And then comes the inside leg sweep. A prophecy is foretold of things to come when Roy Nelson unloads the baby version of Brock Lesnar's hammerfist on Kimbo's dome. I think stubbing one's toe would evoke more pain than this.

• Second round begins and Kimbo comes out with more fire, igniting a one-two combination that stuns Big Country. But one knee attempt later and I'm getting a sense of deja vu.

• It's very hard to get someone in the crucifix once, let alone twice. I attribute this more to the loser's defense than to the winner's offense.

• Thank you Herb. You just saved Kimbo from a fate worse than noogies.

• Roy could use some humility, lest he be lampooned by MMA fans everywhere. He is talented, but he didn't look stunning in this outing by any means.

• He's also doing himself no favors by saying he's ready to go home and have something to eat. I understand character development, but c'mon...

• Yep... sure enough, Marcus looks to be on the outs for next week and Kimbo is positioned to step in and redeem himself. I hope this happens for the UFC's sake. For one, Kimbo is needed on the show worse than ever now that the Rampage/Rashad fight is off. Second, if he goes the distance in a potential second fight, he can be touted as the internet sensation-gone legit, and a huge comeback kid. It's good marketing for the UFC.

Perhaps the most shimmering silver lining in this episode besides the door being cracked for Kimbo is the shift in perception he's likely to receive from the masses. You have to remember this is a guy who hasn't "paid his dues," and is oftentimes questioned if not outright lambasted for his performances. He has largely remained an enigma since the collapse of EliteXC. While in that promotion, he was painted as someone who solely fought for the money.

UFC took the opportunity to show the "softer" side of Kimbo and humanize him. The end result? Some people will view him fondly as a nice, misunderstood guy who really is trying in earnest to become a pro.

Then others will view him as an OK guy who just doesn't belong in a cage. The polarization simply won't stop just because he was painted warmly. There will always be critics who acknowledge a nice disposition in lieu of absent talent.

UFC had better hope they accomplished the former big time if they want this season to be a success.

WEC 43 Predictions

2009-09-29T20:27:00.002-04:00

OK, time for my first non-UFC related list of predictions. This card has not fared well in a sea of injuries and rescheduling... rumors of poor ticket sales have fueled the rumors that WEC is in financially dire straits. This has resulted in more and more talk about the promotion's future, and a possible merger with the UFC.

But that's a topic for another time. I do plan on touching on the possibility of a merger. But for now, let's focus on the card itself. PTN, I'll stick to the main card for my predictions. I do this because honestly, there are many times when the undercard features fighters of indeterminable quality. New and debuting fighters can't necessarily be judged by a record, whereas guys that have some history can.

Cop-out? You betcha. On with the predictions.

Rafael Assuncao vs. Yves Jabouin: Canadian Yves Jabouin is making his WEC debut with this event, and faces off against a fresh Rafael Assuncao. Assuncao recently defeated Jameel Massouh at WEC 40 back in April, whereas Jabouin hasn't fought since November of 2008. We're talking a full eleven months. The kid is definitely experienced, having fought a number of fights including a loss against UFC's own Sam Stout. However, the long layoff is so detrimental to fighters. I've gone into that before here, and while I wouldn't say it's solely responsible for their losses, I'd say it affected Randy Couture and Kenny Florian in their fights against Brock Lesnar and BJ Penn respectively. Assuncao has the lethal combination of Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu on his side (in my mind, the best fusion for the sport), and is a top ten featherweight. I say he takes the win by armbar in the second.

Damacio Page vs. Will Campuzano: Campuzano is another guy on the card making his WEC debut. A relative young buck in the game, Campuzano is currently undefeated at 135, having notched six consecutive wins. He comes into this fight replacing an injured Akitoshi Tamura, and faces the very dangerous Damacio Page. Page is currently 2-1 in WEC, having only lost to current bantamweight champ Brian Bowles. Hardly a blemish considering the man is the best bantamweight in the world. Page also has MMA's greatest secret weapon on his side: Greg Jackson. Jackson has amassed the greatest collective of studs in the sport, and is constantly drawing in new faces and fine-tuning their games. (recent additions include Joe Stevenson, Jon Jones and Clay Guida) He's a strategic master, and I feel he will be the deciding factor. Campuzano is a KO artist, but Page has more experience and a better corner. Page by unanimous decision.

Richard Crunkilton vs. Dave Jansen: They could've subtitled this card "New Horizons," as the main event is the only fight not featuring a WEC debut. Dave Jansen brings his perfect 13-0 record into the Octagon against Rich Crunkilton. Crunkilton is coming back for the first time after an 18-month layoff due to consecutive injuries. He was originally scheduled to face Donald Ceronne back in June, but that clearly didn't happen. He comes into the cage with a very long absence up against an undefeated Team Quest prospect. Despite a 10-year career, Crunkilton is only 29, and has only lost to Hermes Franca and Rob McCollough. Hardly unqualified names. But on paper, Jansen looks impressive, and has already fought four times this year. I'm going to apply the "Layoff Factor" and say Jansen keeps the streak alive by way of third round rear naked choke.

Donald Cerrone vs. Ben Henderson (WEC Interim Lightweight Championship): Ben Henderson has a lot going for him into this fight. One loss on his record, an eight fight win streak and a chance to fight for the undisputed welterweight title. He also has a lot going against him. Namely an opponent who also has one loss (a controversial one at that) under the tutelage of Greg Jackson. That guy's also a very angry cowboy. Donald Cerrone has made no bones about the notion that Jamie Varner is dodging him time and again, and he thinks he would have won their fight had it continued. However, one questionable illegal head kick kept that from becoming reality. Now he's pretty damn disgruntled, and would love a chance to put Varner away. I think between that hunger, the master strategist, and of course the skill, Cerrone wins by unanimous decision.

From here, WEC apparently has big plans, as they have announced their intentions to run a show a month until the summer of 2010. I have some concerns with this decision, as it threatens to saturate the market. I enjoy most of UFC's offerings, but not all. Sometimes I think the pressure to put on many shows jeopardizes the quality, and with fewer weight classes, it's not as though WEC's roster is as rich as UFC's. Of course, a lot of this becomes moot should WEC merge with UFC. It's going to be interesting to see if the little promotion that could will hold up. I certainly hope so.

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episode 2

2009-09-24T16:59:00.001-04:00

There's a term that WWE commentator Jim Ross is fond of. "Bowling shoe ugly." That more or less sums up the culmination of this week's episode of TUF. However, the payoff may very well be worth the letdown. One atrocious fight gives way to one worthy of the hype.

PTN, thought bullets.

• I’d never think to characterize Roy Nelson as “difficult to coach.” However, Rashad and his crew have basically deemed him “uncoachable.” However, you do have to understand Roy Nelson is truly an MMA vet. He has fought in various promotions for more than five years now, and probably has some very standard techniques and approaches he acquired while studying under Renzo Gracie. To be told to do something else when what you’ve been doing has worked for so long is kind of difficult to adjust to. So far, no real evidence of him being a jerk has been aired, though.

• Don’t believe Nelson has a long history? Fun fact: his first professional fight was on April 17, 2004. One week to the day after Rashad Evans’ first pro fight.

• The show’s portrayal of Kimbo is interesting thus far. He’s gotten a lot of attention, obviously, and he is apparently being promoted as a one-dimensional fighter who wants to learn and improve. Team Rampage seems intent on upping his ground game.

• Of course, all that gets pissed away when he proudly proclaims, “I’m a fighter, not a mixed martial artist.”

• Kinda neat to see Kimbo and Rampage bonding. It’s clear no one wants to give Kimbo credit of any sort, so to see a pro like Rampage embrace him so willingly is almost a nice change of pace.

• Onto the fight itself… this was one of the most difficult fights to watch in TUF history for me. Not because of a crazy knockout or big gash (like last week), but because it was painfully boring. Note to Wes Shivers: if you get a spot on the TUF Finale, please work your conditioning. The sight of you huffing and puffing with your hands on your hips has been burned into my brain, a stark reminder that my conditioning is apparently better than yours.

• Yes, that’s a dig.

• As for Rashad’s number one pick, to say his coming out party was underwhelming is like saying Rampage sometimes struggles picking fighters. I couldn’t understand for the life of me why this guy wasn’t going in for the kill when his much taller opponent is bending over (to eye level) gasping for air.

• Rashad’s reaction says it all. Damn, he screams like a little girl.

• If I were James McSweeney, I’d try to finish just to shut him up.

• Did Wes win that first round? I lean toward no. He started strong, but his gas tank emptied fast into the first. I would say a few sharp moments don’t make for a 10-9 round.

• Maybe I’m just biased, because I couldn’t stand a split decision that would take us to a sudden death round. This fight began in the second half-hour of the show, and to think the remaining ten minutes would be consumed by more of the same would drive me to my liquor cabinet.

• However, the payoff is nice. Very nice. It’s an interesting strategy by Rashad putting Nelson up against Kimbo. Now make no mistake, Nelson will be Kimbo’s biggest test to date. Recall how badly he struggled against James Thompson, a so-so fighter with a very solid ground game. Roy Nelson is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He’s also the most accomplished fighter on either team. Send in the most experienced to take out one of the least experienced. I’m going to stand by my pick of Nelson to win the season.

• That said, if Kimbo wins (especially if he finishes), he deserves credit for improving. Roy Nelson is no one to trifle with.

Well, God willing that fight will be better than this week’s. If nothing else, it’s worth the hype. This will probably pop the second biggest rating of the season, next to the premiere itself.

Until then…

UFC 103 Thoughts

2009-09-24T11:22:00.028-04:00

To begin, I thought this was a solid card from top to bottom, but the kind of card that would only appeal to the true MMA enthusiast. It's not the sort of think that would draw in casual fans, as the names on there were not of the "household" variety. (e.g., Brock Lesnar, Georges St-Pierre) But with that said, it was a truly enjoyable card that had a tough fight of its own against the Mayweather/Marquez PPV. Zuffa had a good strategy in play by offering the free fights on Spike (which did not disappoint)

Polish Power. Thomasz Drwal looked dominant throughout this fight, whereas Drew McFedries looked to have gassed early. He just couldn't seem to pull the trigger in the second round, I'm really not sure what happened. Drwal exhibited a good ground game once they went down, and ended the first broadcast fight on a decisive note. More than could be said for Floyd Mayweather's performance.

Success Story. I love the arm triangle. It's one of my favorite submissions, and this may be a contender for sub of the year. Rick Story and Brian Foster had some heavy exchanges, but this is really a spectacular finish. Give credit to story, that is not an easy tap out to pull off.

Iced Cole. Damn. Well, Effrain Escuduero had a successful post TUF finale-debut, and won in impressive fashion. Heavy hands were never something you'd expect from this guy based on his performance on the show. He did an excellent job of smoking Cole Miller, and proved he is more multi-dimensional than meets the eye.

Ow. Steve Lopez's shoulder injury looked nasty. I've never seen anyone dislocate a shoulder while throwing a punch, but it did not look pleasant at all. I was surprised he wasn't wincing after waving off Jim Miller. This was on its way to being competitive in the second round, so the injury finish is really very unfortunate. Hopefully Lopez can rebound soon.

He finally punches like that "other" Tyson. The knockout of Hermes Franca is pretty ironic considering how much flak Tyson Griffin has received for not finishing fights. Indeed, most of his wins are by decision. However, that was just a great KO. An impressive win that's going to put Griffin back on the contender's ladder for sure. Incidentally, Franca's failure to make weight is disappointing. As a former WEC lightweight champion, he has to know how to cut weight properly, so it's even more of a letdown that he couldn't.

You can't spell "Koscheck" without "KO." This one almost seemed academic to me... I don't see Trigg having much left in the tank against quality opponents. He did come out swinging to start, and it could be argued the stoppage was a bit early. However, Wade Keller at MMAtorch.com brings up a great point: referees are likely to step in sooner with veterans due to the excessive wear and tear they've suffered. I'm curious to see where Trigg goes from here in the welterweight division, but I doubt it'll be against anyone near Koscheck's caliber. Meanwhile, Kos rebounds from his own arguable loss against Paulo Thiago, and puts his name right back in the spotlight. From my perspective, Kos landed some big, big shots, and one or two more would've put a cap on the fight anyway.

Speaking of controversial finishes... The big question to the Kampmann-Daley fight is whether or not Kampmann was "out on his feet" or not. He certainly looked rocked to the core, but Joe Rogan commented that the ref could've allowed a few more punches before calling the fight. I'm not so sure. While Kampmann was indeed vertical, I don't think it'd be in his best interest to take many more shots than he did. Impressive showcase for Daley, though. A contenders' match between him and Mike Swick seems to be in the cards, and it makes sense. Although neither of them is anywhere near GSP's level.

(Cro) Cop Out. I'm not even sure where to begin. This fight all but cemented the fall of a legend in MMA. A legend who just barely managed to go 2-3 in the premiere MMA promotion in the world right now. I'll go on the record as saying I'd hoped and expected Cro Cop to come in hungry for this fight, perhaps enticed by the possibility of rebuilding his brand equity. At the very least, he wasn't a complete shell as we've seen with some vets. Dos Santos looked solid throughout in a somewhat underwhelming fight. He's probably a win or two away from a title shot now being 3-0. As for Cro Cop, I'll go on the record as saying he needs to call it a day. At least in the UFC. He may be able to do well overseas, but in a rapidly growing heavyweight division, he's failed to duplicate Minotauro Nogueira's Pride-to-UFC success. Being suspended indefinitely since the fight doesn't help matters much.

Phenomenal. Nothing more need be said about Vitor Belfort's performance. He rang Rich Franklin's bell with authority, and looked amazing in the process. It seemed like a walk in the park for Belfort, and now with the prospect of an Anderson Silva title shot on the horizon, it makes his victory all the more significant.

With that said, we were privy to a whopping eleven (DAMN!) fights Saturday night between the free prelims and the PPV itself. Here's the breakdown of my predictions...

Prelims: 1-1 (0.500)
PPV: 3-2: (0.600)
Event Total: 4-3 (0.571)
Career Total: 13-8 (0.619)

Not too shabby. PTN, Minutiae...

Revisionist History and Balls. Thanks to Joe Rogan for correcting Mike Goldberg's quick praise of Frank Trigg's fights with Matt Hughes. Lets not forget the phantom nutshot he unleashed on Hughes, and his outright neglect in pushing forward with his attack.

"Gonads" is a medical term. 'Nuff said. Moving on.

Please never play that song again. Hearing Beyonce's "Single Ladies" song between fights was agonizing. When I went to Philly for 101, we were treated to "Thunder Kiss '65" by White Zombie and "Killing in the Name" by Rage. Major downgrade.

Always Bet on Black (House). If you didn't already think Lyoto Machida would win next month against Mauricio Rua, chew on this: Junior Dos Santos' win against Cro Cop makes him the third consecutive member of Black House/Team Nogueira in the last two months. Anderson Silva topped Forrest Griffin at UFC 101 in August, Minotauro Nogueira defeated Randy Couture at UFC 102 in the same month, and now Dos Santos has bested Cro Cop. With Lyoto Machida defending next month, who else thinks a streak is in the works? It also bodes well for Antonio Rogerio's debut.

An Eye for an Eye. Am I the only one who thinks it's ironic that Cro Cop received an injury to his eye following his win over Mostapha Al-turk?

Middle(weight) Man. This division has been the cloudiest regarding contenders. As I mentioned last month, it was up for debate as to who gets the next shot, considering both Dan Henderson and Nate Marquardt's recent wins. Anderson Silva has been without a clear-cut challenger since April. However, Dana White seems prime on positioning Vitor Belfort as the top contender. I gotta say, I can't complain with his pick. I don't think Silva would, either. He's expressed disinterest at rematches with Hendo or Marquardt, so going against one of MMA's finest fighters ever would probably perk his ears up. Now that's a fight worth paying for. Meanwhile, a fight between Henderson and Marquardt to determine the next challenger for either Silva or Belfort makes sense.

Ace in the Hole? Rich Franklin's loss puts him in a unique situation. As I mentioned, he's been in back-to-back catchweight fights, which is really unusual. Dana White expressed interest in having Franklin vie for the light heavyweight title, but that seems unlikely now. The question is, where to next? Multiple message boards and rumblings have singled out Forrest Griffin as a potential next fight. I think that'd be great, and it's honestly hard for me to pick someone. I'm leaning closer toward Franklin now just because of his punching power. However, the thought of yet another loss for such a UFC stalwart is really disheartening.

Well put. In the post-fight press conference, Rich Franklin joked about how he tried to plan for Vitor, noting he tends to have problems with Brazilian southpaws. Too funny. But also too true. Vitor is the only other guy besides Anderson Silva to stop Rich Franklin. By knockout, no less.

Quality over Quantity. I'll let boxing pundits revel in their happy little buyrate with the Mayweather/Marquez event. Boxing always has the top grossing PPV every year, and typically one other card in the top ten. Aside from WrestleMania, the balance of the top ten PPV's are owned, lock stock and barrel, by UFC. Moreover, UFC delivered a quality show in which the majority of fights were finished, including the main event. This is in contrast to Mayweather's 12-round decision victory against a much lesser opponent. So fine, take one big pay day for the event and scream as loud as you want that boxing won this night. If there really is a contest between MMA and the sweet science, it's heavily lopsided in favor of MMA, with UFC driving the sport's exposure and growth. I'm not saying there aren't quality boxers out there, nor do I believe all boxing matches are boring. But when you look at the quality of the biggest shows compared to UFC's consistency, there really is no contest. And there's no standing 8-count to recover in this fight.

That wraps up another huge event for UFC, and clarifies some murkiness in the sea of contenders. You can very easily see one who is ready for a title shot, and several who are a fight away from that same honor. The big question as we push through the last quarter of 2009 is, who will be first to be dethroned?

Reacting to Rampage

2009-09-23T18:52:00.002-04:00

(A quick note: I have not yet been able to view UFC 103, although I do have it DVR'd. I had to travel for work Monday night, and just got back into town late last night... just in time to read up on Rampage's blog post. I hope to have my PPV and TUF thoughts lined up by the end of the week; lots to write about.)

Last night, word broke about one of this season's TUF coaches and former light heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage Jackson retiring. I wish this could be taken as a dirty rumor, but the insinuation is coming directly from the horse's mouth.

Below is the post, in its entirety, taken from Rampage's page:

The UFC has done a lot for me but I think I have done more for them. The UFC bought WFA to get my contract & they saved my life, so I felt loyal to them. They pushed me into a fight with Chuck Liddel even when I clearly stated I wasn't ready to fight for the belt because the American fans didn't know me but I took the fight and didn't complain & after I won the American fans booed me for the first time which changed the way I saw them & it hurt me deeply.

Then before I can even get out of the cage they announced that I was fighting Dan Henderson without even asking me. After I beat Dan Henderson, I made history in becoming the first undisputed champion in MMA but was never even given the pride belt in the cage & I was never promoted as the undisputed champ. Later Anderson Silva was.

Then they had me coach TUF season 7 and fight Forrest and the fight was very controversial & normally when a fight is that close & controversial there is normally an instant replay. I can name a couple of instances. Instead they offered me the Vanderlei Silva fight which I gladly accepted even though I know it was a very risky fight for me to take because of all the drama that was happening to me at the time. I fought that fight with a jaw injury and then a couple weeks later Dana called me and asked me to fight Rashad. For the first time I said no, I didn't want to fight because it was such short notice & I wouldn't have had a long break between camp. Dana talked me into fighting Rashad anyway but Rashad refused the fight and so I had to fight Jardine as a favor to the UFC instead of getting my belt back (which wasn't even worth it to me financially).

Then I reinjured my jaw in the fight with Vanderlei & Jardine. Frank Mir gets hurt so they wanted to switch my fight from UFC 100 to the fight Frank couldn't make it to but I couldn't fight cause I needed jaw surgury. So they give Machida the fight against Rashad & they told me they want me to coach TUF season 10 against Rashad. That's why I wanted Rashad to win so bad but when Rashad got knocked out I told them I wanted to fight Machida for the belt but Dana told me if I coach TUF against Rashad that I could fight Machida afterwards cause this was a different type of ultimate fighter show they were doing. After I signed the contract Dana then changes his mind & says I have to fight Rashad & even told me what to say in the press & so my fans think I was scared to fight Machida. After all that I still never complained & I did it all.

Then this movie role came about that I have been trying to get for over a year & as soon as I found out I was close to getting it, I called Dana right away & asked to push the Memphis fight back just a month or so. I told him what this movie role meant to me. I told him that I used to bond with my father watching the tv show as a kid when my parents where still married & it represents the memories I had with my father when we lived together. My dad became an alcohalic & addicted to drugs & we grew apart. But after my dad got his life back together, I was so proud of my dad & I told him I would always take care of him in the future & make him proud of me. My dad & I are still very big fans of the show & I am basically doing this for the childhood memories I had spending time in front of the tv with my dad. Dana went on the internet & mocked me because of that & I still did nothing. Dana & I finally talked & we made up & then after that he went back on the internet & said some bullshit & he was talking bad about the movie when information is not even supposed to be released & talking about payments which is not even true could really hurt my future acting career, which could very well last longer than my fighting career. I'm not like Randy Couture. My body has been getting so many different injuries that I wont be able to fight until my forties & neither do I want to fight that long. So I feel like my second career could be in jeopardy.. so I'm done fighting. I've been getting negative reviews from the dumb ass fans that don't pay my bills or put my kids though college. So I'm hanging it up. I'm gonna miss all my loyal fans but hopefully they'll follow me to my new career & I will gain more loyal fans along the way. & all you hater fans out there can kiss my big black hairy ass! & anybody that don't like what I just said can come try to kick my ass!

I still feel the UFC is a great organization and I felt like I was very loyal to them but they didn't respect my loyalty but I wish the UFC the best. I did a lot of things for them. I wish no bad blood between us but I have kids & a family back in Memphis to provide for & thats all that matters to me!

This is a tough piece to really comment on. Obviously I don't know the inner workings of the UFC's matchmaking structure, how fighters are offered fights, etc. That said, most fighters don't really come out in the open about such situations; this is a very, very rare instance.

It's no secret that Dana White, for all his savvy and bravado, can speak out of line. It's also no secret that he plays favorites. Some guys like Frank Shamrock seem to be on his permanent shitlist, and there are some who he'll always bend over backwards for. It's very possible that in the midst of Rampage's title reign, Dana wanted to push him as the man to beat, and in doing so made some hasty fights without consulting Jackson. It's also possible that while driving the marketing machine behind Anderson Silva as best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Jackson was forgotten as undisputed champion. (although to be fair, I've never seen Silva with his Pride belt, either)

If what Rampage said is true about being jerked around, then he does have reason to be upset with Dana White. But does that mean he has to retire? This is where I really feel conflicted. I have some issues with his statement, as well...

One is his characterization of the fans. This is kinda hard to take in stride and not comment on. Rampage states he was booed after beating Chuck Liddell. Well, Chuck was the UFC's sweetheart for many, many years at the time of their fight. Not to mention at that very moment, some people may have questioned his knockout. Chuck was completely conscious after the incident. A rowdy bunch of MMA fans griping about a knockout that was only clear to a well-trained eye? It happens in the heat of the moment. Especially against the face of the promotion.

Not only that, but Rampage was pretty much cheered clearly in each of following fights, with the exception of his third clash with Wanderlei Silva. The reason? The fans knew about his "personal issues."

Rampage conveniently leaves out the fact that Dana White and the UFC stood by him after his police chase last July. He neglects to mention that White went to bat for him at press conferences, communicating the rationale behind Rampage's actions to the masses. White could have very easily tried to sweep him under a rug and stay mum on the subject. Instead, he defended the man. The man who didn't have a lot going for him in the defense department. So while Dana White could have done more to accommodate Rampage in the fight department, he also stood by the man in his darkest hour.

Then there's The A-Team defense. I can respect the fact the man wants to do movies, but his lengthy analysis of what the old show means to him. I think it's great it brings back memories of his father, but it seems an awfully... extreme reaction to being offered the part. I'm not saying it's not true, but it hardly seems a fair reason to up and retire from the sport that made you when Dana goes off on it. The role does put a cramp in the plans for the Rashad fight, which would be a huge payday. Naturally, Dana runs an MMA promotion. The MMA promotion, in fact. At the end of the day, he should be concerned about putting on compelling fights, and it's logical he'd be upset when a big fight like Rampage/Rashad is jeopardized for any reason. Especially when it's not due to injury.

With all this said, I'm conflicted. The fight fan in me wants to see this blow over so a great competitor can go on fighting. The human side acknowledges that sometimes, you just want to do something different in life. There are equal amounts of valid points and holes in Rampage's blog, and it's polarizing when you really look at it.

Dana White appeared on Carmichael Dave's radio show yesterday to react to the story:

"Rampage is a grown man. He's acting like a baby right now, but he's a grown man. If he wants to be in the movie business, Rampage, good luck to you, man. I hope he makes it big, and I'm not being sarcastic. ... I hope the movie thing works out for him. If that's what he truly wants to do, and that's what he feels and that's what he thinks his career is, I wish him all the luck in the world... [He] has been a friend of ours. We really like Rampage. I'm not going to get into the battle of who's done what for who and all that stuff. We've done a lot for him and yes, he's been there and fought. The guys who come in here, they're fighters. That's what they do. We give them fights and they fight. And they make money and we make money. That's the way it works... I got so pissed off [about him delaying the Rashad fight for the A-Team movie]. I'm speaking my mind, he thinks I'm trying to ruin his movie career... He's a grown man. He can do whatever he wants to do."

While he may have perpetuated this entire situation, White is not necessarily in the wrong with his statement. Rampage has painted UFC into a corner, and as a fight promoter, you have to be upset when your big money fight for the end of the year evaporates.

The way I see it, both men have been impulsive in their reactions. Dana White didn't necessarily have to be so vocal about his disappointment with Rampage's decision, and conversely, Rampage could have filmed the movie and then made a decision on his future. Unless the Fertittas get involved, it looks like Rampage is done for the time being.

Then again, nothing is certain in MMA. A year ago, Jon Fitch was unemployed for a full 24 hours before being let back into the fold. Thales Leites was released, not released, and released again with in two days after UFC 101 last month. It's possible this could iron itself out.

For the sake of fight fans, I hope cooler heads prevail. I think I speak for a lot of fans when I say I would hate to see a great career cut short because of a disagreement.

UFC 103 Predictions

2009-09-18T19:36:00.001-04:00

Another big pay per view is on the horizon, featuring the return of some longtime UFC vets. UFC 103 is another PPV like 101 which, while it doesn't determine champions, it may determine potential contenders in some serious weight classes.

More interestingly perhaps is the fact that the show is going head-to-head with the Floyd Mayweather/Juan Manuel Marquez boxing PPV, marking the first time I can think of where MMA and boxing have literally squared off against one another on a big fight night. To compound matters, UFC will be airing two fights from the prelims for free on Spike TV.

Some people have commented that this is just another underhanded tactic by Dana White and company to undermine their competition. Truth is, it's smart business. This is nothing new in the arena of combat sports. As I've previously mentioned, WCW and WWF used to go head-to-head on a weekly basis every Monday night. What's so wrong about UFC trying to cut deeper into boxing? Honestly, a name like Mayweather could bring in big revenues for boxing and ultimately split fight fans. UFC is wise to air some of the prelims for free, as they come off as offering that much more to fans.

Taking a look at he main card, here are my thoughts...

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca. This oughta be a good lightweight scrap. Franca's coming off of ACL surgery and Griffin is looking to return to his winning ways after losing to Frankie Edgar a few months back. I don't see Franca winning for two reasons... 1. He's been out of action for nearly a year due to his injury. That's going to lead to some "cage rust" (since we're not in a ring) 2. Tyson Griffin has never been submitted before, and has great defense against Jiu-Jitsu. When you neutralize Franca's strongest asset, you've taken his legs out from under him. Griffin by UD.

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg. I'm surprised to even be mentioning Trigg's name, to be honest. The man hasn't fought in the UFC in four years, and is a lightning rod for controversy. I think his signing comes down to two things... 1. Everyone likes seeing a heel get his just desserts. 2. It's one less recognizable name for Strikeforce to claim. Koscheck is coming off a questionable loss to Paulo Thiago, but has been improving dramatically over the last year. Conversely, Trigg has not fought a big name fighter since he lost to Robbie Lawler two years ago. It could be argued that his last four wins are only padding his record, and he hasn't been legitimately challenged in a while. I don't know that Kos will knock the man out, but I do see him winning by split decision.

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley. What was supposed to be a #1 Contender's fight between Kampmann and Mike Swick was drastically altered when Swick pulled out due to injury. Swick was replaced by Paul Daley, and I'll admit, the fill-in spot is a disappointment. Swick has been on a tear and I thought he would be a shoe-in to defeat Kampmann then challenge GSP for the welterweight crown. While Daley has fought considerably for a guy who's only 26, I don't see him having the same level of talent as a Kampmann. Kampmann by TKO in the second.

Mirko Filipović vs. Junior dos Santos. Just when you thought you'd finally seen the last of Cro Cop following a controversial win over Mostapha Al-turk, he's back in the fold once again for a chance to make it to the top. The question is, will he be the dominant head-kicking Croat of old? Or will he run into a Brazilian brick wall as he did with Gabriel Gonzaga? Junior is talented, and has a bright future ahead of him. But if Mirko is healthy, I don't see how dos Santos can pull this one off. Mirko by TKO in the first.

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort. Catchweight king Rich Franklin is back in the limbo between titles to face the returning Vitor Belfort. I hate catchweight fights in the UFC because they're confusing for fans. Hell, Franklin's career since rebounding from the Silva losses is confusing to fans. First he fights at light heavyweight and defeats Matt Hamill, then he goes onto fight Dan Henderson at light heavyweight to determine who will coach against Michael Bisping on TUF and then fight at middleweight to determine a contender for Silva. Huh? Then he fights at a catchweight with Wanderlei in an attempt to make ends meet while one is moving up in weight and the other is moving down. Eh, I can kinda see it, and it was a good fight. Now he's at 195 again to welcome Belfort, who plans on going down to 185. Good God. I swear, as good as Franklin is, he's becoming UFC's middleweight litmus test: just a roadblock for veterans looking to drop down to 185. When he finally sees 205 again, it's likely a full year will have passed since he last fought at that weight. Well, onto the fight itself, I guess... this fight spares us the "opportunity" of a practically meaningless Franklin/Henderson rematch. So that's a plus. The question is, will Franklin be fodder for Belfort as the Phenom moves towards a match with the Spider? I tend to think yes. Belfort seems reinvigorated since moving down in weight, and while Franklin has been solid against legends like Hendo and Wandy, Belfort is still young enough with plenty of punching power to stave off Ace and make a solid transition to middleweight. I'll even be so bold to say Belfort hands Franklin his first TKO loss since Anderson Silva in the third.

Sine we have some extra fights that will definitely see airtime, here are my quick pics on the live Spike prelim fights:

Efrain Escuadero vs. Cole Miller: Miller by rear naked choke in the first.

Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal: Drwal by TKO in the second.

UFC seems to be in a habit of trying to build credible contenders with non-title match PPV's. They're caught in a tough position considering how dominant their champions happen to be. From top to bottom, you have an emerging monster with few weaknesses, an elusive tactician who's never been beating, the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world who's on a 10-fight win streak, the superhuman athlete who seems to be the perfect hybrid fighter, and the Jiu-Jitsu genius who owns his weight class.

Much like 102, which saw potential contenders emerge in Minotauro Nogueira and Nate Marquardt, 103 sees the hopes a few people hanging in the balance. The winner of Kampmann/Daley is probably likely to get that title shot, unless a rubber match with Swick is in the cards. Dana White has been vocal about his hopes for both Rich Franklin at 205 and Vitor Belfort at 185. And Cro Cop is no doubt hoping a solid performance will put him in line against the winner of Lesnar/Carwin.

The real question is, how good are the chances of any of these guys against the current guard?

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episode 1

2009-09-17T21:05:00.002-04:00

It seriously wasn't long before I found myself cracking up at this episode. I caught onto MMA after the first season of TUF, and didn't start actually watching the show until Season 6. That said, I stand by my notion that this show has the most promise for pure entertainment value.

I just really hope the fights stack up half as well... after last night's display, I'm a little wary. Time for my bulleted thoughts...

• Rampage and Rashad are going to be the forces that make this season enjoyable. Count on it. If the opening last night wasn’t evident of that enough, the preview of weeks to come at the end should have been. Sure, people will tune in to see how Kimbo does, but realistically, beyond that the man has no drawing power. If you’ve listened to his interviews, you’ll know he’s far, far from an engaging personality. Some people just gotta be thankful for YouTube, I guess.

• Speaking of Kimbo, his entrance was handled well. I’m not thrilled with the promotion of the show touting him as “the most talked about name in the sport.” I can think of at least Three or four other guys who are probably just as well known by casual fans if not more so. Anyway, the entrance established what we all expected early on: Kimbo has a bullseye on his back. I doubt he’ll be a major player in the house drama, but anything’s possible.

• Kimbo's ground case is more than just "lacking."

• Alright, we’ve found our Junie. Wes Sims may not throw glasses at anybody, but he’s clearly gonna be the guy to stir the pot. You know when a dude refers to himself in the third person, it’s going to be entertaining.

• Oh, for the uninitiated, that whole story about him beating Frank Mir twice is BS. Check his record here.

• OK, I gotta share this story about Sims because it perfectly crystallizes what a character he is. I had the opportunity to train with Daniel Gracie this summer. Between drills, he was shooting the shit with the class and somebody mentioned Sims on this season’s show. Daniel’s eyes got wide as saucers and he shook his head. Daniel fought Wes at a GFC event in 2006 which ended in a draw. They’d meet a few months later in the IFL where Daniel choked him out in the first round. Sims went on all the messages boards and claimed the night before the fight, Daniel sent up a bunch of girls to his hotel room, and explained his performance by saying he was too tired as a result of the “distraction.” Daniel told us this story and then said, “Motherfucker, if I got a bunch of women, I’m not sending them to your room!” We almost died. So yeah, that’s Wes Sims for ya.

• Maybe it’s the sophomore in me, but I was dying during Rampage’s off-camera interview about Darrill Schoonover. The look on his face when he said “titties” for about the fourth time was priceless. Also, picking the cameraman? Absolutely classic.

• Rampage is the funniest TUF coach, and possibly the worst. I had a gut feeling in he’d be the guy to pick Kimbo, but the rest of his team looks atrocious compared to Rashad’s crew. Cosmetically, they look awesome. But they sorely lack experience. Even if you remove Slice from the equation, you still have Marcus Jones, Demico Rogers and Zak Jensen. Big Country claimed he didn’t think Rampage knew talent when he saw it, and I unfortunately have to agree. I remember his last stint on TUF, and he doesn’t know how to pick fights, either. I love Rampage, but he’s just not a good coach. He’s nowhere near as articulate as Rashad or Forrest Griffin, and that hurts his team in the long run.

• Man, does Rashad’s team look stacked. Guys like Roy Nelson and Darrill Schoonover may not be as cut up as a Marcus Jones, but then again, Marcus Jones almost passed out during a basic training exercise. With two guys from Greg Jackson’s camp and the last IFL heavyweight champion, I think Team Rashad is going to win the lion’s share of fights this season.

• That said, I hope their wins aren’t like the first one. That fight was about as exciting as C-SPAN. I gotta say, Rampage picked one of the shorter straws, as even Abe said earlier in the show that he needed help on his wrestling. Going out there for the first fight against a skilled wrestler probably isn’t the best strategy. Jon Madsen looked good here, but it was a dirty move to feign touching gloves in the second to set up a takedown. I doubt Abe would’ve won regardless, but still, low class.

• I love the effect of the in-fight windows that feature the coaches. I’m surprised they hadn’t done this sooner. Seeing their facial reactions is a nice touch. You can really see the difference in coaching styles here, too. While Rashad is yelling instructions, Rampage is simply telling Abe to “do something” and “he keeps doing the same thing.” Yeesh. I don’t blame him for being upset at Abe’s performance, but he could’ve done more to help the guy.

• That gash was Marvin Eastman-esque. Damn.

• I stand by my pre-show pick of Roy Nelson. He’s one of the more experienced castmembers, has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Renzo Gracie, and will be training under the tutelage of Rashad Evans and more importantly, Greg Jackson. That guy is a serious game changer, and probably the best trainer in MMA today.

• However, when they actually fight, I’m going to go with Rampage. Save Machida, I don’t think Rashad has come close to his caliber yet.

All in all, a very entertaining show (except for the fight, of course), and I’m looking forward to where the season takes us.

UFC Fight Night 19 Thoughts

2009-09-17T18:07:00.002-04:00

Another season premiere of The Ultimate Fighter, another sound Ultimate Fight Night for free to entice the fans. I love these events because A) they're free and B) they allow the lower ranks of UFC's lower three weight divisions to really showcase their talents. You have a 50/50 shot of the fights being bland or competitive. Last night, we got a good dose of some solid action with some valiant efforts and a few come-from-behind victories. Onto my thoughts...

"Rock" Solid. I was really worried Nate Quarry was going to be ousted in the first round following some of those hard punches by Tim Credeur. Quarry's comeback in the second was almost out of a movie, and he proved himself to be tenacious even at age 37. With experience either comes two things if you're a stand-up fighter: a solid chin or a glass one. Quarry falls into the former category. I wouldn't have given it fight of the night as I thought it was a bit sloppy at points, but that said I give both guys credit for gutting it out the way they did. Good way to open the night.

Natural Born Thrillers. Now this was my pick for fight of the night. I love Carlos Condit for many reasons, and thought he was robbed when he fought Martin Kampmann. Not knowing much about Jake Ellenberger when he came in other than his record, I figured this would be a quick dust up for Condit. Man, was I wrong. Ellenberger won me over with his punching power, damned impressive. However, Condit was very smooth in defending himself, and his rebound was wonderfully tactical. Mark my words, this kid will be welterweight champ some day. Great, great fight. This came down to the gas tank and Condit being able to outlast his opponent. If Ellenberger can improve his conditioning to go past the first round, he'll go far. No shame in losing to a guy like Condit, though.

Shades of Gray. Another competitive fight, another split decision. Although to be honest, I wasn't hugely impressed with the fight as a hole. Both guys seemed very gun-shy at points, almost hesitant. Huerta looked good in the first round, but that quickly shifted midway through the second. Gray Maynard is just a resilient guy. He simply outclassed Huerta in the later rounds. But I give Huerta a ton of credit for not tapping to that head-trap kimura... I've been caught in that before and it is a nasty, nasty submission. He must have some serious flexibility in his shoulders to withstand that type of pressure. It's too bad he has to exit on a losing note, as he's a good fighter and a crowd-pleaser. Hopefully "El Matador" can swing his cape in the Octagon again sometime soon.

Melvin Guillard + Jiu-Jitsu = Loss. I don't mean to say I called it, but I called it. Yeah, the round and method weren't spot-on, but Melvin Guillard's track record proves he doesn't mesh well with Jiu-Jitsu. He won the first round and almost looked a full weight class above Diaz. His striking is tight, but Diaz has a good chin and sound defense. Kenny Florian called it early on when he noted this typically Diaz's style as a slow starter. When he started maneuvering to the mat a bit more, it was only a matter of time. That modified half guard guillotine is a favorite of mine, especially when there's a guy shooting for the legs. Rich Clementi called it two years ago when he choked Guillard in the first round: the man needs to learn some Jiu-Jitsu. He can't rely on his typical style, as multi-dimensional fighters will chew him up. That said, Nate Diaz probably needs to be a faster starter, because sooner or later, someone will catch him with a good shot and end the fight fast. However, he did what he had to for this fight and picked up a much-needed win.

I went a perfect 4-0 for my main event predictions for a 1.000 average. This brings my "career total" for picks to 9-5 for a 0.643 average. Hot.

No PTN Minutiae this time around, as I'm about to begin working on my Ultimate Fighter review for the season premiere. If the Fight Night was a good opener, the show itself was highly entertaining.

Well, up to the fight.

Stick around.

Evaluating the TUF Model

2009-09-14T21:17:00.000-04:00

After offering my initial thoughts on TUF 10, I realized something.

This will be entertaining, sure... but are any of the fighters really good enough to be champions some day? Could any of these guys top Brock Lesnar now? A year from now?

This season is more about building the feud between Rampage and Rashad (now on hold thanks to The A-Team movie and Rampage's part) and generating ratings courtesy of one Kimbo Slice.

It's hardly UFC's fault for wanting to inject some much-needed life into the show that elevated them to previously unthinkable heights. But does it really bring us the absolute best fighters in the world and give them the exposure they deserve?

Let's look at the chronological winners of each season (note I'm not counting Stephan Bonnar or Ed Hermann as they technically were not season champions):

Diego Sanchez: After defeating Kenny Florian, he immediately moved down to welterweight to truly bring us some memorable fights, including wars with Nick Diaz and Karo Parysian. His recent move to lightweight has been entertaining as well, giving us a fight of the year candidate against Diego Sanchez. His only two losses are by decision, and his next fight is his first title shot against BJ Penn. He's done well, but hardly ascended to the heights expected of him just yet. He's a great athlete, but I'm skeptical his explosiveness will outdo BJ's expertises.

Forrest Griffin: The poster child for TUF and perennial UFC golden boy. Forrest had a tough go of things at first but wound up topping some big names en route to becoming the light heavyweight champion. However, he is just another name in the trend of TUF titleholders to win a belt but not defend it. This is a trend that will become apparent as we move on down the list. Griffin's heart was undeniable until his loss to Anderson Silva last month and subsequent jog backstage. Even his biggest wins could be contested. Shogun was coming off a knee injury which clearly affected him for the long term, and his win over Rampage was somewhat controversial. Not to take anything away from Griffin's tenacity, but is he really one of the top fighters in the world at this point? Has he already peaked?

Joe Stevenson: Joe Daddy lost his first post-TUF fight and racked up a few wins before showing gaping holes in his game against BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. He's only recently seemed revitalized thanks to the tutelage of Greg Jackson. Hopefully it can last long enough to erase the taste of so many lackluster performances. He's talented to be sure, but has a long way to go before becoming a real contender.

Rashad Evans: The least likely heavyweight out of Season 2 to win, he made a successful transition to light heavyweight early on and rode a hot win streak. However, his win over Forrest Griffin led to him being clearly outclassed by Lyoto Machida, making him the third TUF titleholder in a row to not even successfully defend. Clearly he has great punching power as his knockout of Chuck Liddell shows. But was this more to Liddell's old game as opposed to Rashad's skill? Hard to say. His fight with Rampage may be the acid test for his future as a potential contender. If he can't hang with more technical talents, he'll be lost in the shuffle.

Kendall Grove: Considering his physical potential, his performance following his TUF win has been disappointing. A mere 4-3 in the Octagon, he's light years away from ever being seen as a serious contender to the middleweight crown. His last fight against Ricardo Almeida showed just how much work he still needs to put in. He's still young enough that his prime hasn't hit, but in a division where everyone is just another name to be fed to Anderson Silva, how likely is it he'll reach that potential?

Michael Bisping: The one shining point of Bisping's TUF win has been the resultant exposure of MMA in the UK. His move to middleweight has made a lot of sense, but he's shown that when put up against higher caliber opponents, he clearly struggles. He looked lost in his fight to Dan Henderson, and now finds himself up against Dennis Kang soon. This is a far cry from the proposed Wanderlei Silva fight, and it prevents Bisping from further testing himself against top tier talent. He needs that sort of challenge if he ever hopes to be truly dominant.

Matt Serra: Serra is a little different from the rest of the names considering he was already well-established in the UFC when he won TUF. However, as a winner, he still needs to be considered. He may lay claim to UFC's biggest upset ever, but Serra's MMA career since then has been far from the spectacular superstardom he may have hoped for. Serra's Jiu Jitsu is great against most fighters, but in a sport where styles are becoming more and more mashed with prolific fighters, he's a far cry from being a major name in the welterweight division. At 35, you have to wonder how many fights are left for him. It's doubtful any will be for another title, though.

Travis Lutter: If Matt Serra's comeback was ultimately unspectacular, Travis Lutter's was downright embarrassing. He wasn't even able to make weight against Anderson Silva, and became just another notch in the Spider's gun belt. After being dispatched by Rich Franklin, he found himself the first TUF winner to be released from the UFC. It's been more than 15 months since his last fight, and now will fight fellow UFC-castoff Jason MacDonald next month at an MFC show. Lutter may is one of the more notable failures in the TUF experiment thus far, but given the theme of his season, UFC can be forgiven.

Nate Diaz: His credits with his brother Nick and Cesar Gracie are well-documented. His Jiu-Jitsu game is impressive. However, like many other TUF alumni, Diaz has found himself severely challenged when going up against more experienced opponents. His last two defeats to Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson now leave him with a sub-par opponent (in my opinion) in Melvin Guillard to help him rebound. Diaz, like Grove, is still young enough that his prime is well ahead of him. So there is time to grow and improve. But the question is, given the historic volatility embodied in both him and his brother, will he make the effort?

Mac Danzig: Danzig came into TUF 6 as the touted favorite and breezed through his competition, submitting each of his fellow cast members en route to winning. After defeating Mark Bocek, the rear naked chokes immediately stopped. Danzig is currently on a dismal three fight losing streak, and again, the theme here is consistent: more experienced talent seem to dominate. Danzig has lost to Clay Guida, Josh Neer and Jim Miller in spite of his impressive ground game on the show. His next fight has yet to be determined, and he's in danger of following Travis Lutter's path. The only difference is Danzig would be the first "pure" TUF with no prior UFC experience to be cut, which may be a more severe blow to the show's model.

Amir Sadollah: Sadollah came into TUF 7 with no prior MMA record in spite of a spectacular Sambo game. However, several injuries prevented his Octagon debut until last month. Most were expecting a submission win against Johny Hendricks. Instead, they witnessed a dismantling by TKO. The jury is still out on Sadollah as he is only 1-1 in his entire career. However, at 29, how many years does he have to really grow before his peak is missed?

Honestly, it's way too early to even speak out on Ryan Bader and Efrain Escudero, let alone Ross Pearson or James Wilks. But something has become clear... the longer the show has gone on, the less dominant the winners have been in their post-show experience. Even those who went onto win championships (Serra, Griffin, Evans) have failed to be convincing champions in their subsequent defenses.

The other clear theme is that when put up against truly experienced talent, even the most impressive TUF winners have largely failed. Most people wrote off Matt Serra's win as flukeworthy a long time ago.

With that said, and Season 11 still in the future, Season 10 may be one of the last chances for the show to be reinvigorated. If not, the flagship show may wind up a thing of the past. But the real challenge is for the UFC to legitimize the show. When Forrest and Rashad won the light heavyweight championship, cries of vindication were offered by MMA pundits. And when they were lost in convincing fashion, new questions arose. At this point, I can't see any of the current winners growing to the point those two did.

Perhaps its time for UFC to reinvent the show. Maybe they could show the training regiment of new fighters to the company, a more documentary style. Or, if they insist on the reality format, the rumored merger between UFC and WEC could provide an interesting lightweight season where at least the fighters come in with prior experience.

Much remains to be seen regarding the show. It seems to be heavily saturated and perhaps out of tricks. As much as I'm curious about Season 10, I'm more interested to see if Season 11 will bring some more novel format updates. Lord knows they're needed.

UFC Fight Night 19 Predictions

2009-09-10T17:46:00.003-04:00

We're hot on the heels of one what may be the most hyped season of The Ultimate Fighter to date. The rivalry between Rampage and Rashad has been building, and the added x-factor of Kimbo Slice has to have whetted the tongues of even the most jaded MMA critic. Per the norm, UFC is having a fight night lead-in to the season premiere this coming Wednesday night, and with that I offer my main event predictions.

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur. Credeur has lingered longer than most of us may have expected following his TUF over a year ago. He's currently on a three-fight win streak in the UFC, and is coming up against his toughest challenge to date. Nate Quarry is an MMA veteran, and has been working to rebound from his loss to Demian Maia last year. While Credeur has a 3" height advantage that may lead some to believe he'd be tough to wrestle to the ground, Quarry's last win over Jason MacDonald proved he has no problem taking on someone with such a height advantage. I'm going to go with experience here, as Quarry has only lost to top tier talent in the form of Maia and Rich Franklin in recent years. Quarry by TKO early in the second.

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger. Ellenberger's UFC debut following an impressive KO at Bellator 11 pits him against the last WEC welterweight champion, Carlos Condit. Condit has an impressive track record, and at 25, his best years are probably still ahead of him. Ellenberger has potential, but hasn't proven himself against a recognizable talent. Condit shouldn't have the same trouble Chris Lytle would've provided before dropping out; he wins by TKO in the first round.

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta. There are many who feel Diego Sanchez is receiving the title shot Gray Maynard or Frankie Edgar deserve. Thus far, Maynard has not been stopped in his young career, with only a single NC to his name. Coming into this fight following a 13-month layoff and contract dispute is Roger Huerta, Sports Illustrated cover boy and one-time sweetheart of the lightweight division. Despite wins over the likes of Clay Guida, Leonard Garcia and Jason Dent, Huerta has gone from first to worst in the hearts of many for his outspoken comments about his contract, and has made it clear this is his last MMA fight for the foreseeable future as he is ready to pursue a career in acting. This is the last fight on his contract, and even though he has an impressive record, I don't see him winning. Aside from Maynard's hot streak, I have to question Huerta's heart. His head clearly is not in MMA right now, and such an extensive hiatus from the cage is never good for any fighter. Maynard's been chalking up wins consistently for a while now, including two against Jim Miller and Rich Clementi in the time Huerta's been absent. Huerta's conditioning is always good, which is why I don't see him being finished. But Maynard is simply too dominant right now, resulting in a win by unanimous decision.

Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard. This fight is intriguing as it sees two opponents riding juxtaposed streaks. Melvin Guillard has a three-fight win streak including two in the Octagon. Meanwhile, TUF Season 5 winner Nate Diaz is coming off two disappointing decision losses. He needs a win badly to keep his name in the lightweight fold, and this may be one of his last chances. While Guillard is on a hot streak, the caliber of opponents he's defeated pale in comparison to the names Diaz has lost to. No one expected him to be facing off against a revitalized Joe Stevenson in his last fight. In all honesty, Stevenson looked like a completely different fighter compared to his previous three outings. As for Clay Guida, what else did you expect besides the tenacity and roughhouse style he's come to employ? That loss didn't surprise me, nor anyone for that matter. Additionally, Guillard has shown a lot of trouble dealing with submission specialists. His 2007 loss to Rich Clementi is proof of that. In fact, six of the seven losses on his record are by submission. Unless he's really polished his ground game, this spells trouble for him against Diaz. I smell a rebound for the younger Diaz brother by way of triangle choke mid-way through the first.

TUF Heavyweights Thoughts. It wouldn't be a season of The Ultimate Fighter without some expectations and controversy. I'll say this much: I liked last season's lowered emphasis on pranks and household drama, counteracted by a heightened focus on the fights themselves. That said, I wasn't impressed with most of the contestants. This season, I expect a lot to change. Making this a heavyweights-only season offers the chance to see some interesting fights. I expect more knockouts than in the last few years, just because these are some heavy hitters. Not only that, but the mix of MMA veterans and former NFL players should make for some very, very interesting in-house confrontations.

Speaking of confrontations, the choices for coaches this year are the best since Serra and Hughes. While reality TV bullshit is best limited amongst the fighters, you can never go wrong with two coaches who have a genuine beef with one another. This was evident with Tito Ortiz and Ken Shamrock. While I liked the fact that Forrest Griffin and Rampage had a mutual respect for one another that led to few altercations, and I appreciate the quiet nature exhibited by Dan Henderson, the coaches' interaction with one another is one of the things that makes the show so much fun to watch. When I heard Rampage and Rashad were the coaches, I instantly knew this would be the best season in years.

Then I heard about Kimbo.

What can I say? I don't think much of the man as a fighter, and I don't expect him to win. He's a lightning rod for controversy and probably won't be welcomed very warmly by many of the fighters in the house. And you can bet he'll have some choice words for Dana either to his face or to the camera. I didn't expect him to take White up on his offer to compete for the contract, but I'll give him credit for showing up. I also think Zuffa has been very, very smart to use him in its marketing. Like it or not, the man was part of the highest rated televised MMA event in history. Including him will undoubtedly spike (no pun intended) the ratings.

That said, I pick Roy Nelson to win it all. The guy has proven himself, and I see him being a great addition to UFC's growing heavyweight roster. I'm looking forward to watching this season.

UFC 102 Thoughts

2009-09-03T21:09:00.002-04:00

Wow. Now that's how you round out a great month in the sport. Not a single title fight was on the card for UFC 102, but some definitely highlight reel action took place. More importantly, the dominoes were set up for future potential contenders in a couple of key weight classes. Of all the events this month, this PPV was by far the strongest, with an impressive collection of knockouts, submissions and all-out wars.

Onto my thoughts:

The Truth Hurts. Brandon Vera looked OK in his decision victory against Krzysztof "Spell Check Nightmare" Soszynski. But both guys just seemed very timid and gun-shy. Soszynski has recently stated that he's only just begun to get the mental aspect of MMA, and I think the pressure of A) being on a UFC live PPV card for the first time, and B) going up against a marquee name like Brandon Vera kept him from pulling the trigger. Then again, Vera didn't exactly blow any minds here. Still, he notches another win and looks to perhaps wrest the gatekeeper spot from Keith Jardine. (more on that later)

Great Expectations. My vote for KO of the year just changed from Dan Henderson's win over Michael Bisping at UFC 100 to Nate Marquardt making Demian Maia go airborne in 21 seconds. Damn. That was as beautifully timed a punch as I've ever seen, and major credit to Marquardt for holding back on some unnecessary ground n' pound after seeing Maia nearly in the fetal position. For Maia, he has little to be ashamed of in losing to a Top 5 middleweight, especially one who's already danced with the Spider. Marquardt lived up to his nickname, and Maia suffered an inevitable loss to a top contender. Both shall fight on.

What a Rosholt! Jake Rosholt looked great in his win against Chris Leben, showing vast improvement since his last outing. It was a helluva first win in the Octagon, and a very slick use of the arm triangle. Leben looked very rusty to me, in spite of the hometown crowd having his back. I'd guess the nine month layoff was too much time off for him, because he just didn't look as sharp as he's proven himself to be in past fights. It's a hard loss for "the Crippler," as it sends him further down the middleweight ladder with a second consecutive loss. As for Rosholt, he nabs a win against a name, and becomes slightly more visible in a sea of would-be contenders.

Broken Record, Shattered Jaw. God. Damn. Todd Duffee came off with a dominating win if ever I saw one... Tim Hague may not be in the upper echelon of heavyweights, but he's no slouch, either. That said, he was no match for Duffee's Shane Carwin impression. A new UFC record for fastest win is set, topping Don Frye's 1996 debut all the way back at UFC frickin' 8. It's still too early to say Duffee's a can't-miss prospect, but we'll sure be paying more attention to him moving forward.

Breaking the Cycle. This was probably the most even split in terms of who could win the entire card, but I had a feeling Thiago Silva would notch a KO. His style is much more aggressive than the very meticulous Keith Jardine, and I suspected he'd be looking to make a statement. It puts Silva back in contention talks, considering his only loss thus far has been to a top pound-for-pound fighter, who also happens to be the division champion. As for Jardine, I suspect he'll lose his title of "gatekeeper," but not his job. Dana White likes him for some reason, so he'll always be around. But now that he's had some time to face some top tier talent that hasn't been simmering in development (Forrest Griffin) or starting the downward slope of a career (Chuck Liddell), I think it's clear he won't be the stud some people claim he can be.

Tough break... I feel for Ed Herman, he was working hard in his fight against a very sharp Aaron Simpson, and was at least defending intelligently. But a long layoff is in his cards following his knee injury. as for Aaron Simpson, he finds himself slowly climbing up the ranks following a very impressive looking performance.

Worth the Wait. What more need be said? Calling that an entertaining battle would be a gross understatement. This may have been the only highly touted fight in the month of August to totally live up to the hype. Nogueira looked great. Two key quotes of the night were, "This looks like the Minotauro Nogueira of old," and "Most people feel the Frank Mir fight was an aberration." Both are pretty accurate. While Nogueira was dominant, it was far from an easy win. Couture looked good with his traditional dirty boxing technique, and his submission defense and escapes looked outstanding. He should have been submitted on at least two occasions (that D'Arce Choke looked nasty), but his tenacity against such a skilled Jiu-Jitsu fighter was truly impressive. Having been put in some of those holds, I know how hard they are to escape. Damn. That's years of training, that's all I can say. Nogueira looked very sharp, though. I was amazed how easily he swept Couture into the mount in the second, and I gave him all three rounds. Great, great fight.

Overall, this was a very strong card, and I went 3 for 5 in my main card predictions. This makes my average for the card 0.600, and 0.500 overall since UFC 101.

PTN, Minutiae (contender edition)...

Stormin' the gates. With Jardine's W-L-W-L pattern finally broken, he will probably no longer be the gatekeeper in the division. I could see a rematch with Forrest Griffin in the cards, but he's dreaming if he thinks he'll ever be a serious contender. As for Thiago, he's probably one more win away from title consideration. A win over the loser of Rashad/Rampage might make sense for him. It'd also make for a great slugfest.

Navigating the Web. Nate Marquardt's win has put him in the mix for a rematch with Anderson Silva, and deservedly so. He's grown tremendously as a fighter since his last title shot, and is easily the number two middleweight in UFC right now, if not in the world. Of course, Dan Henderson has also asserted himself as a potential fight for Silva, and has stated if he he's denied the shot, he's likely to move up to light heavyweight. He's also none too interested in the prospect of a fight with Marquardt to determine who gets the shot. As for Silva, he has expressed zero interest in both fighters as he's beaten both, and wants a solid challenge. I guess he doesn't realize that a rematch with either may not necessarily produce the same result as his second encounter with Rich Franklin, but it's hard to convince him otherwise. That said, both Henderson and Marquardt are deserving enough, and would produce solid challenges. Ultimately, the final decision will rest with Silva. Joe, not Anderson.

Moving on up. Minotauro Nogueira silenced whatever smattering of criticisms lingered after his fight with Frank Mir, and like Thiago Silva, is probably a fight away from a title shot. As for who that fight would be with, that's tricky. I could see him taking on the winner of the Dos Santos/Cro Cop fight. That's as sensible of a setup fight I could think of, short of a Mir rematch. Still, he's just a few rungs away from big Brock. If Brock can best Carwin, that is...

And moving back down. Following the news that Randy Couture signed a new six-fight deal with UFC, Couture announced his intention to move back down to light heavyweight. Short of retirement, this is the smartest thing he could do at this point, because he is probably at the point in his career where the heavyweight division is simply too big for him. At 220 lbs., he's a very small heavyweight compared to the Lesnars and Carwins of the world. But that said, he is about to re-enter the most competitive of all UFC's weight classes. I can't see him beating Lyoto Machida anymore than I could see him beating Anderson Silva, a "dream match" he's proposed. There's no point in a fourth fight with Chuck Liddell (should he return), but perhaps a potential fight with protege Forrest Griffin could generate some interest and excitement. I'd also love to see Randy take on Dan Henderson at 205. Hendo was, in a sense, Pride's version of Couture during its heyday, and I could see that being a phenomenal challenge for both men.

A lot of ramifications came out of this card, more so than any other this busy, busy month. Contenders have been born, and there seems to be an ongoing changing of the guard in some sense. The ramifications of this and other events over the last sixty days are leading us into what may be the most important year in the history of the sport.

MMA Weekend Update

2009-08-21T20:23:00.001-04:00

Another busy, busy week behind the scenes in the world of MMA. If I may be so bold as to borrow a little device from SNL, I'd like to take the time to review the week that was with my own take on "Weekend Update."

Another Great Light Heavyweight... who won't fight Machida. During the UFC 102 Conference Call, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira announced that his twin brother is UFC-bound. I guess it was only a matter of time before Antonio Rogerio Nogueira found a high-profile home following the Affliction fallout. Great addition to an already deep light heavyweight roster; can't say I'm too surprised considering his brother is a main eventer there, and his other Black House brethren are high profile title holders. It'll be interesting to see who he gets paired up against first. Loser of Rashad vs. Rampage, perhaps?

Boy, Ishida's Gonna Be Pissed he Missed the Boat on This One. The Nevada State Athletic Commission instituted the "BJ Penn Rule," which prohibits the use of foreign substances on a fighters body. Such substances have been added to a list of "fouls" in the Nevada Administrative Code. The timing is somewhat ironic given that Mitsuhiro Ishida's camp is claiming Gilbert Melendez greased in their fight last Saturday. Hopefully this rule prevents me from ever having to hear the term "Greasegate" again.

Leave the titles... take the money. The payouts for Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg were announced, and to no one's surprise, Gina Carano led the pack, followed by Renato Sobral. I guess this shows where Strikeforce's concentration is in terms of marketing and compensation... Cris Cyborg brought in a paltry $25,000. That includes a $5,000 win bonus. However, she and Gegard Mousasi can't complain too much given their wins. Cyborg even said Carano can keep the title of "The Face of Women's MMA," since the only title that matters is the one around her waist. Well-put.

Thank you for not giving the Barnett Spiel. Following WEC 42, Province Coletested positive for illegal substances. While he claims he didn't know what he was taking, a line we've been fed way too many times in baseball, at least he took responsibility for his actions and admitted he should have been more careful. I respect him for his words as opposed to a 3-time loser like Josh Barnett who has maintained his Affliction-killing test failure is erroneous despite the B-tests being positive. A little earnestness goes a long way.

Guess we'll have to wait for the GSP Dream Fight... Anderson Silva reinforced that he will not challenge Lyoto Machida for the light heavyweight title. This may be frustrating for some fans, but given how similar both guys are as counter fighters, I can't say this would be the most exciting fight. I think the hype would be deflated in the first round by a restless crowd. That said, I admire Silva for sticking to his guns and being loyal to his friends. He's long stated that he felt the light heavyweight crown was Lyoto's for the taking. I'm kinda interested to see what Machida has to say in all this... Meanwhile, Jake Rossen at Sherdog reports that Silva is considering making a jump up even higher to heavyweight. This is questionable, and I'll be surprised if it sticks. I agree with Rossen in that Silva could probably take on smaller heavyweights like Couture or Brandon Vera. But up against a monster like Brock Lesnar, that's a lofty goal for a guy who walks around at 215 only to cut to 185 and began his career at 167.

While we're on the topic of heavyweights... Major shifts are abound in the coming months for UFC's heavyweight division. The announced Cain Velasquez/Shane Carwin fight has fallen apart so Carwin can fight Lesnar at UFC 106, which leaves Velasquez taking on Ben Rothwell at UFC 104. I love this shift, because for Brock, it'll be the first time he's gone up against someone roughly his size with strong punching power. Even against the quality heavyweights he's faced, his chin hasn't been tested. Considering Carwin hasn't seen much more than two minutes of an entire fight, expect this one to draw a lot of attention. As for Velasquez, he needs some time to simmer before being elevated much higher. Ben Rothwell is an experienced heavyweight with experience in IFL, Affliction and the tutelage of Pat Militech in his favor. It should be a great, great challenge. The heavyweight roster is starting to show some real depth.

Red November. Strikeforce has pushed up Fedor Emelienenko's debut to November against an opponent to be named. Great. Now I have to hear an additional month's worth of hype about how many UFC guys he's beaten.

Would Mickey tell him to give it up? Former UFC welterweight champion and world's biggest Rocky IV fan Matt Serra stated he's not done and wants a rematch with that other Matt. Personally, I'm all for it. I thought Serra should have won that fight, and I don't think it's asking much for a second go-round. Hell, if they were ready for Franklin-Henderson II, why not?

In fact, I think both Matts would request this provision. In addition to the BJ Penn rule, the NSAC also approved non-title five round fights and instant replay. It'll be interesting to see how often UFC will apply these new options if at all. Personally, I'd love to see it for contender fights... Imagine Sanchez vs. Guida II for a full five. As for instant replay, I'm not sure how much it'll be used. There's an issue with refereeing in MMA, but that's mostly due to Steve Mazzagatti breathing.

Even Axe Murderers need a break. Wanderlei Silva will be out for the rest of 2009 due to facial reconstructive surgery. This leaves Michael Bisping to instead fight Dennis Kang at UFC 105. Meanwhile, I'm guessing there are medical reasons for this surgery since Wandy doesn't look much prettier than before.

Dude, you retired for this?! And, of course, the real news this week: Chuck Liddell will be on the next season of "Dancing with the Stars." I'll watch if he knocks out Tom DeLay.

UFC 102 Predictions

2009-08-19T18:37:00.000-04:00

UFC 102 rounds out the month in MMA, and an interesting card it is. While it is the only major card this month to feature no title defenses of any kind, it could potentially create some future top contenders. Overall, I think this card is the strongest August has offered fans yet, as it's a stacked line-up of marquee names and young up-and-coming competitors.

PTN, my predictions (main card only):

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski. Soszynski makes me happy for two things in life: TUF alumni and the copy and paste option in Microsoft Word. The last time I saw so few vowels, I was in typing class repeating the home row. Seriously, Soszynski is an animal, and was my original pick to win his season of TUF. He's been on a tear since the show wrapped, and I see him dominating again here by first round knockout. (I'd love to see him return to the kimura, though)

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia. This fight interests me more than all the rest on the card. Marquardt has improved dramatically since losing in his last title shot at Anderson Silva, and I consider Maia to be the best Jiu-Jitsu fighter in MMA today. You have to give the stand-up and experience to Marquardt, but the patience and ground savvy clearly go to Maia. With the winner of this fight likely going onto a future middleweight title shot, there's lots on the line, and I expect both guys to bring their best game. You could almost rely on a coin toss for this one, because it could really go either way. I side with Maia, though. He's proven to be elusive when necessary and gone up against some very strong wrestlers. Marquardt would have to hope for some puncher's luck to win, but I see Maia outclassing him on the ground for the win by rear naked choke midway through the second.

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt. With Leben coming off a 9-month suspension for steroids and a humbling loss to Michael Bisping, I foresee him really wanting to turn up the heat. Rosholt cut his teeth in WEC but has yet to win in the UFC against more seasoned opponents. I think Leben's mindset after the layoff could play into this. If he has a clear head, he's got a shot, but he's also struggled against wrestlers and Jiu-Jitsu practitioners. Also consider Rosholt hasn't been knocked out yet and that tilts the scales in his favor. I see Rosholt by unanimous decision.

Thiago Silva vs. Keith Jardine. Keith Jardine is the perennial gatekeeper to the light heavyweight crown in the UFC. He's proven both impressive and mediocre at particular points in time. He's fought and beaten some of the best and also lost to some of the best. Unraveling the enigma of Jardine is frustrating sometimes. Meanwhile, Thiago Silva is coming off his only loss to date against one of the best pound-for-pound fighters today. One thing that Jardine has proven is that he doesn't fare well against early aggression, which is something Silva has a lot of. Not to mention heavy hands. My prediction basically sees Jardine losing much like he did to another Silva: Wanderlei. First round knockout for Thiago, first back-to-back loss for Jardine.

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The heavyweight tournament Dana White set up goes round robin and comes full circle as two former champs meet for the first time. This is intriguing because of how different the fighting styles of both men are, yet how strategic and technical they can be in their respective lanes. Not that I think Frank Mir's decisive victory against Minotauro was a fluke, but it's been established Nogueira wasn't performing at his normal level due to recovery from a staph infection. I think if he were healthy, Brock Lesnar never would've gotten his rematch. That said, I don't think he'll be able to submit Randy easily. Couture's a cagey vet, he knows the ins and outs of the ground game very, very well. "The Natural" hasn't lost by submission in well over eight years. Then again, he hasn't gone up against someone with Nogueira's BJJ expertise, which is as good as it gets at the heavyweight level. I see Nogueira eking out a close split decision win due to multiple escapes and submission attempts.

What will be interesting to see is how the winners factor into future title shots. Like I said, the winner of Marquardt/Maia almost definitely gets the winner of Hendo-Silva II. I would say given the thin heavyweight division, the winner of Couture/Nogueira has to be at least considered for a future title shot, although another win may be necessary. Any way you cut it, I really think this will be an entertaining card full of talent and variety. Maybe even some fight of the year contenders. From here, we look ahead to September for WEC 43, a new season of The Ultimate Fighter and the return of Vitor Belfort to the Octagon.

Should be fun.

Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg/UFC 100 Re-Broadcast Thoughts

2009-08-17T18:02:00.002-04:00

Continuing the trend of a very interesting, eventful August with a lot of ramifications in MMA, Strikeforce's first event as the undisputed #2 promotion in MMA went off last night, and for my money, it bore mixed results. There was a lot of hype and promotion going into the vent regarding the main event, while behind the scenes there was constant turmoil and shifts going on.

What was supposed to be an all-title fight main card was reduced to two title fights and an interim championship match. First off, a lightweight unification title was changed to an interim title defense when Josh Thomson pulled out of his fight with Gilbert Melendez due to injury. Thomson was replaced with Mitsuhiro Ishida.

Then you had Joe Riggs pulling out of his fight with Nick Diaz due to an adverse reaction to a drug, only to be replaced by Jay Hieron for the welterweight title. However, Diaz fails to show up for a scheduled drug test due to questions about marijuana use and the penalties surrounding it. Hieron is then replaced with Jesse Taylor and bumped down to the prelims.

Given all the changes, there was no way I felt comfortable making predictions, even though the few fights which remained I had strong inclinations about. Onto my thoughts about the main card:

Werdumed to Obscurity. Fabricio Werdum trounced Mike Kyle in the first pretty easily, and this is an example of UFC's run-off serving Strikeforce's better interests. Werdum was good in UFC but not great... in a growing promotion like Strikeforce, he could either stand as a gatekeeper to the likes of Fedor and Brett Rogers, or he could completely reinvent himself similar to Vitor Belfort. However, Belfort's success came as a result of dropping to middleweight. My concern is Strikeforce using him as Fedor fodder (I need to trademark that term stat...) much in the same way Affliction used Tim Sylvia and Andre Arlovski. It gives them the chance to say, "Look at this former top tier UFC heavyweight who just fell to our stud... A stud Dana White doesn't have." Judging by the promos they're already airing for Fedor, I wouldn't be surprised.

One down, one to go. Gilbert Melendez looked absolutely dominant against Mitsuhiro Ishida. It had to feel good finishing him off in such convincing fashion after his decision loss at Yarennoka - New Year's Eve 2007. He simply outclassed Ishida in every category. Now it only remains to be seen if he can accomplish the "Iceman Goal" patented by Chuck Liddell: avenging every loss on his record. Considering the only other check in his "L column" is to the man he was supposed to face (Josh Thomson), it almost seems fortuitous the way things worked out this time.

Passing Gegard. I've seen some of Gegard Mousasi's work in DREAM, and all I can say is I thought he may be the one guy at middleweight to really give Anderson Silva a run for his money. I'm so impressed with this guy, I had no doubts he'd win. I just don't think I envisioned it being so quick and decisive. One minute in and the look on Bablu's face as he lay on the ground brought me back to seeing Miguel Torres get crushed by Brian Bowles just one week ago. Given all the hype around Fedor and Gina Carano, if I were Scott Coker, I'd put a hype machine behind Mousasi as the next big thing at 205. Because he could very well be. It's really too bad M-1 global lied to him about a UFC offer to get him in Strikeforce. Because I would love to see what this guy could do in the UFC. Save Lyoto Machida and Silva, I'd put money on him against just about anybody else in the division.

The (Bruised) Face of Women's MMA. I never made official picks on ILK, but if I did, I would've picked Cris Cyborg in a heartbeat over Gina Carano. To the casual or uneducated fan, Carano had to be viewed as the favorite coming in. Even Sherdog's poll of MMA professionals predicted Carano's inevitable victory. But let's be clear: this was not a Serra-GSP upset by any means. No matter how the card was promoted, Cyborg was a 2-1 favorite coming in (if you saw the pre-fight interviews, you'd have caught that). Don't forget, Gina Carano hadn't fought since October of 2008. Cris Cyborg was battering Hitomi Akano at Strikeforce's Showtime debut just four months ago. Those layoffs can be brutal for even the best of fightersThe thing that clinched it for me was her Chute Box background. When you come from the same school that's responsible for the likes of Wanderlei Silva, Mauricio and Murilo Rua, and of course Anderson Silva, you are pretty much validated as a legit MMA badass. Cyborg's ground and pound is absolutely vicious, and the major factor in this was her power. Although she wound up in mount a couple times, she was able to toss Carano around with great ease in spite of the choppy landings. Her ground n' pound is what sealed the deal, though. Carano looked like she couldn't keep up after the first three minutes, and despite a close opening, it was clear who would win this. As for Gina, I would put some time and energy into learning a bit more about the ground game. Her stand-up technique is solid, but leaves her a little too one-dimensional against more well-versed fighters.

Strikeforce is in an interesting position now... Scott Coker has mentioned he may host two women's tournaments at 135 and 145 lbs. This would be ideal as it would help them fill a niche UFC has not even approached. Aside from good promotion and production values courtesy of Zuffa, part of the reason WEC is successful is because it offers something UFC doesn't: lower weight classes. Strikeforce will need this in the early going to offer a differentiating factor. As I've detailed, other promotions have tried more gimmicky approaches such as IFL's team system and YAMMA's "innovative" pit, all to no avail. Women's MMA could be just the thing to give Strikeforce a little more appeal, as it offers something unique without the cheese factor.

However, after building up Gina Carano as "the Face of Women's MMA," Strikeforce is now left with a different, less attractive face as its first women's champion. Nothing against Cyborg, I consider her the better fighter than Carano. But there's no arguing Gina's cover girl looks and sex appeal, so marketing Cyborg could be far, far more challenging than Carano. They may have painted themselves into a corner by putting so many eggs into the Carano basket. They have to make other stars. Let's not forget, part of what failed Affliction and EliteXC was emphasis on too few names.

Put it this way... When Quinton Jackson defeated Chuck Liddell, who was arguably the most recognizable face in UFC and the sport at the time, UFC didn't have any trouble being able to market him or others as top stars. Strikeforce is still very much in it's infantile growth stages, so it's important for them to market multiple names. Not just Carano and Fedor. I would put a lot of emphasis on the women's division as a whole for starters. Because let's face it, who knows how many talented female fighters there are out there, really. It's still being exposed over here, lots could change. Cyborg could be a one-defense champion. Let the cream rise to the top, I say. I would also put a strong marketing vehicle behind Gegard Mousasi. He clearly has the goods, and I don't see anyone wresting that belt from him anytime soon.

Overall, this was a good event if a little short. It was hard to have expectations past the main event given all the last minute changes. Had Diaz and Thomson been on the card, I think we'd see more fights going the distance as opposed to three out of four televised bouts ending in the first round. Compared to their other Showtime events, this was Strikeforce's weakest outing yet, in my opinion. It'll be interesting to see how November's card plays out.

Per the norm (PTN), minutiae...

OK, we get it, he's good. Notice how every name they posted on Fedor's hit list during that promo is a former or present UFC heavyweight. Convenient there was no mention of Babalu or Hong-Man Choi on that list. The Fedor hype machine is officially in full effect. I guess they have to do it, but there's much more to the story than former UFC Heavyweight Champions.

Lock it up and throw away the "keys." I don't understand the whole "Keys to Victory" thing they do with Frank Shamrock. Obviously they're trying to educate the uninitiated on some moves and techniques, but he could do a lot better job of explaining why these factors are essential to winning for a fighter. The only decent explanation given was for the main event.

Mike Goldberg would call him "classy." I give Gegard Mousasi a lot of credit for stopping as soon as he saw the blank stare in Babalu's eyes. So many fighters are programmed to keep going until the ref calls it, it's nice to see someone who knows when to let the ref see for himself.

It looks like a second head... I know most fighters take pride in their cauliflower ears as red badges of courage. But man, Randy Couture's ear looked awful. I know he's training for Nogueira right now and getting it drained would mean a few weeks off from full-on sparring. I just hope he gets it taken care of immediately after the 29th, because that thing is giving me flashbacks to "Total Recall."

If this were WEC, I wouldn't be watching "Sports Soup" at its regularly scheduled time. I wound up programming my DVR to spill over into "Penn and Teller: Bullshit!" not expecting to actually pick up any of the show. I'm surprised they at least didn't offer a prelim fight to fill time. Four fights and five rounds made for a quick night lasting less than two hours. It may not be pay per view, but still, throw out something the home viewers can still check out. If it's quality, you'll just be getting behind your product more.

On the same night, we had a head-to-head free broadcast of UFC 100 on Spike. I've never had a problem with UFC doing this, it's just business as usual. They offered a free fight night with Anderson Silva's shift up to light heavyweight up against Affliction's first PPV outing. So what's so bad about this? This is just competitive tactics. Let's not forget WWF and WCW went head-to-head every Monday night for years. Prior to that, Vince McMahon and Ted Turner would challenge each other in head-to-head free televised cards up against PPV events. This is nothing new. Think of how many times you've seen a Walgreens a block away from a CVS. No different, honestly.

Just a couple thoughts on the slightly different broadcast...

Hammer Time (someone had to say it). Mark Coleman looked the best I'd seen him in years in his fight against Stephan Bonnar. I was predicting Bonnar would bounce back after losing to Johnny Jones in February, but Coleman impressed me the way he took the second and third rounds. It was like watching a completely different guy compared to his performance against Shogun. I'd pick him over Tito Ortiz since Tito is coming off a year-plus layoff and back surgery.

Jonesing for Bones. I'm keepin' an eye on Johnny "Bones" Jones. He floored me with his first two rounds against Stephan Bonnar at UFC 94. He actually went to high school with a guy I used to train with, and I've heard lots about his ability. He's got great wrestling, great strength and a crazy reach at 84.5". If he can keep his cardio up in third rounds moving forward, I predict he'll see gold someday.

Pressed for time? No "Rush." I can understand leaving GSP's dominant performance off the free broadcast considering it was a full 5 rounds. Also, compared to Henderson's highlight knockout, it wasn't as spectacular an outing, and they had to leave room for Brock Lesnar since he's such a lightning rod for attention. You'd think they'd leave room for their most popular fighter to be showcased, but you can sort of see why they didn't.

How dare you cut off Joe Rogan! Honestly, I don't have a problem with UFC editing Dan Henderson's post fight comments about knowing Michael Bisping was already out cold when he dropped the second big blow to him. I'm sure he wasn't serious, but it's still a loaded comment that garnered a lot of negative press. It was a smart move.

Well, three cards into August and we have three new champions, a massive upset, some controversy PTN and oh, by the way, there's still one more PPV to go. I'll be back this week with predictions for UFC 102.

Pound for Pound Ranking as of August 2009

2009-08-15T07:14:00.002-04:00

Been lots going on in the mythical P4P rankings. Everyone has there take, as do I. So following an interesting first half of the month in MMA, here's my personal view of the top ten pound-for-pound fighters as of this moment.

Keep in mind, this is based on my opinion. I do read other rankings such as Sherdog.com and MMAWeekly.com and take their rationale into consideration. But this is a list of who, for my money, the top guns really are.

10. Miguel Torres.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

Yes, he lost in devastating fashion to Brian Bowles, but considering his overall record and previous dominance in the bantamweight division, he still deserves a spot on this list. Had he won, I'd have placed him fifth overall. Despite the loss, there's a good chance he could come back and reclaim his title. (37-2-0; next fight: TBD)

9. Brian Bowles.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

A powerful puncher and a convincing victory over the former top ranked bantamweight launch Bowles into the P4P rankings. His current undefeated record speaks highly, and continued victories will propel him higher on the list. Bowles has impressed so far, and no doubt will continue to do so. (8-0; next opponent: TBD)

8. Rashad Evans.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

Rashad quietly plowed through the light heavyweight division for three years before a classic KO win over Chuck Liddell propped him up for title contention. With only one loss on his record to the current champ, Rashad is still one match away from a second title shot. (13-1-1; next opponent: Quinton Jackson at UFC 107)

7. Quinton Jackson.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

Rampage has returned to his winning ways following last year's split decision title loss to Forrest Griffin. With a vengeful victory over Wanderlei Silva and a decision win over Keith Jardine, he's now 4-1 in his last four fights against top level fighters. This leaves him primed for a second title shot should he make it past Rashad Evans. (30-7; next opponent: Rashad Evans at UFC 107)

6. BJ Penn.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

Penn strategically dominated Kenny Florian both standing up and on the ground. Looking the physical best he has in years, his win silenced a lot of critics about his training habits. It was a refreshing return to form after his humiliating loss to GSP. If he can continue to train like this, his spot in the Top 10 only stands to climb. (14-5-1; next opponent: TBD, possibly Diego Sanchez)

5. Mike Thomas Brown.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

Brown has quickly and assuredly claimed Urijah Faber's former spot as the featherweight king. His shocking title win was proven to be more than just a fluke following his last two defenses. Brown has a lot of power for a featherweight, and even Faber will have a tough time should they clash again. (22-4; next opponent: Jose Aldo at WEC 44)

4. Lyoto Machida.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

The UFC's Karate Kid has amassed an amazing record that includes wins over former UFC fighters prior to his dissection of Rashad Evans. Even before that, he basically had his way with former UFC champions in Rich Franklin, BJ Penn and Tito Ortiz. Now, after a tumultuous history of four champions over the last two years, it looks like the UFC Light Heavyweight Title may finally have found a waist that will keep it safe for some time to come. (15-0; next fight: Mauricio Rua at UFC 104)

3. Fedor Emelianenko.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

The heavyweight king of mixed martial arts found himself playing the part of prettiest girl at the prom that everyone wanted to dance with following the fall of Affliction. Despite reportedly high monetary appeals by UFC, he signed with Strikeforce, providing American audiences with the first viable medium to watch him in action. The only questions are, 1. Who will be the first to step into the cage with the king? And, 2. How much competition is there in Strikeforce for him? If he clears out the division and is left with no one, his top three spot could easily be jeopardized. (30-1-1; next opponent: TBD)

2. Georges St. Pierre.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

Welterweight king, Montreal's favorite son, arguably UFC's most popular fighter today. GSP has dominated his last six fights and all but erased the upset of the century against Matt Serra. There remains some credible fighters left for him to defend his title against, but that list is rapidly dwindling with each overpowering defense. Following his victory over Thiago Alves at UFC 100, a strong case was made for St. Pierre to be placed at the number one spot in the P4P top ten. A valid argument could still be made for such placement, too. GSP's training and dedication to getting better with each performance is probably second-to-none in the sport right now. His natural athletic prowess have propelled him to become the best wrestler in the welterweight division despite no prior wrestling background. Topping him is tough. But there's one guy that comes to mind... (19-2; next opponent: winner of the Martin Kampmann/Mike Swick fight at UFC 103)

1. Anderson Silva.

Get more pictures like this from SHERDOG.COM

Fans were absolutely livid when Georges St. Pierre was not placed above Silva following his win at UFC 100. Almost as angry as they were during Silva's five round first gear rout of Thales Leites. Coming off that and his non-finish against Patrick Cote, many questioned if the UFC Middleweight Champion had grown soft or simply bored with the current competition. Dana White and Joe Silva were quick to respond, and the Spider's second foray into the light heavyweight division was made. He not only passed the test of Forrest Griffin with flying colors, he silenced critics and magically transformed jeers to cheers as he decimated Griffin from the first exchange. This fight seemed proof positive that Silva, while explosive and able to strike with pinpoint accuracy, is also extremely strategic and knows how to win. Having competed and won in three major weight classes against top level talent, (including former UFC and WEC champions in Carlos Newton, Dan Henderson, James Irvin and now Forrest Griffin)there should be no doubt who the king is. (25-4; next fight: Dan Henderson at TBA)

What's going to be interesting in the coming months is to see how the top two on the list respond to the notion of competing in multiple weight classes. Silva has already competed in welterweight, dominated in middleweight and made a case for himself in light heavyweight. He's noted that he may vacate the middleweight title and make a full time jump up. As for St. Pierre, he's entertained the idea of moving up a weight class (presumably for a Spider-Rush superfight), but also noted it would take him some time to get comfortable fighting at a higher weight.

The top three don't look to be changing at any time in the near future. In the UFC, it's difficult to see any of the champions on the list being unseated soon. At this point, we may have to wait for Silva to retire to relinquish both his title and his pound-for-pound crown. Unless Dana White pulls the trigger on superfights and fast.

WEC 42 Thoughts

2009-08-11T22:05:00.012-04:00

Another WEC event, another DVR overrun. Thank God I decided to DVR both "Sports Soup" and "Fanarchy." It's more Versus Network than I ever expected to watch, but if it means seeing the frontrunner for upset of the year, it's worth the excess.

WEC is quickly becoming my favorite overall promotion in terms of sheer action. The advantage of having featherweight and bantamweight as the premiere weight classes is that WEC is guaranteed to have faster, more explosive fights. The only thing they lack in comparison to their big brother is the brand equity and recognizable names. You could probably rattle off six or seven big names from the UFC whereas WEC only has three well-known names. But that takes absolutely nothing away from the action.

I feel WEC has consistently put on excellent fights this year. Especially considering the big title defenses by Miguel Torres against Takeya Mizugaki and Mike Brown's rematch with Urijah Faber. Those two fights alone have made many people fans overnight.

My thoughts, match-by-match.

Leonard Garcia vs. Jameel Massouh: Very explosive, competitive first round. I give both guys credit for gutting it out, but by the third it was obvious both were feeling the effects. If Massouh put forth a little more effort, he could've won easily. Garcia still seemed off his game in the third despite some big shots thrown. Great effort by both guys, though. This is a good win for Garcia after losing to Mike Brown. One or two more may put him back in line.

Takeya Mizugaki vs. Jeff Curran: This was just wrong... It reminded me of Clay Guida losing to Tyson Griffin a few years back... I don't know what fight the judges were watching. Curran fought well the second round and beyond a shadow of a doubt won the third round. He fought really well from his back, and you don't see that much in modern MMA. I don't agree with the decision, Curran definitely should have won the split decision. But both guys are great competitors. Mizugaki is tough as nails for not tapping to that triangle. It won't be long before Mizugaki finds himself staring across the cage from Brian Bowles.

Ricardo Lamas vs. Danny Castillo: Let me just say I really wish they'd consider eliminating this division as they have with welterweight, middleweight and light heavyweight over the last few years. I really think a lot of these fighters could be used to spike the shallow-ish UFC lightweight division. But anyway... Nothing huge here short of the final moments. Lamas had some pretty looking strikes, if only he connected. Castillo's on a 3-fight win streak, and you have to believe that when the title picture is cleared up between Donald Cerrone, Ben Henderson and Jamie Varner, Castillo's name has to be a consideration for a challenger.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Dominick Cruz: Cruz absolutely smoked on the ground. Watching him transition between the mount and the back in the first round was reminiscent of BJ Penn the night before, and his stand-up made the difference in the second. Both guys are clearly very fast both offensively and defensively, which makes for some very hot scrambles and exchanges. I was surprised to see Benavidez on the end of so many takedowns, but much of this was due to Cruz's size I feel. Another very competitive bout with Cruz showing some good takedowns.

Miguel Torres vs. Brian Bowles: Let me say it again... Wow. I've read one online reviewer compare this to Matt Serra defeating Georges St. Pierre, and I'd have to agree. I knew Bowles presented a credible threat, but considering how tenacious Miguel Torres is, I never would've seen that coming. Brian Bowles probably packs more power in his punches than just about anyone else in the bantamweight division, which is something Miguel Torres probably isn't used to. His title defenses have typically been against guys of similar speed and prowess, but he hasn't faced such heavy hands before (at least in WEC). This is Torres' first loss in six years and 17 fights, not to mention the first time he's ever been finished. That says a lot about Bowles' ability. I was very impressed with those punches, and it made for an incredibly dramatic finish that was both shocking and memorable.

So with this one in the books, what's next for the former top bantamweight and his successor? Well, for Bowles, he gets a long layoff until February 2010 thanks to a broken hand he sustained. Can't say I'm shocked given how hard he was throwing those bombs. As for Torres, he'll probably rematch Mizugaki in a bout to determine who gets a second crack for the title. It may even be for an interim title given the layoff expected for Bowles. It remains to be seen whether or not he'll be able to make his first defense against Dominick Cruz or not.

But one thing was clear about Bowles' victory... it was no fluke. Miguel Torres didn't look "off," or "sloppy." Bowles just was the better man. Oftentimes when a top dog is unseated, much like the GSP-Serra match, we're hasty to label an upset as a fluke. Mike Brown proved that not every upset deserves comparison with Serra's shocking win, as he has now defended his belt twice against valid contenders. I'm shocked Miguel Torres lost, but everybody loses sometimes. I'm not shocked his first lost was to Brian Bowles. The next lot of top tier fighters has arrived in WEC in the form of Bowles and Brown. It's going to be interesting to see how they handle the pressure.

I maintain WEC is the most consistently entertaining U.S. promotion right now, but they need to do a better job of scheduling with Versus. I learned to DVR the next scheduled program after I recorded up to the first fifty seconds of Torres vs. Tapia. I don't know if others got wise to this yet, but WEC really needs to rectify this fast.

But it's a minor complaint for such a worthy promotion. I'm looking forward to seeing how the year winds up for this rapidly budding promotion.

UFC 101 Thoughts

2009-08-11T07:00:00.001-04:00

Wow.

For what was a largely "eh" pay per view broadcast (most of the prelims were very solid, though), it was amazing to be live and in person for some pretty historic moments.

Well, one with massive ramifications at the very least.

So here, in no particular order are my thoughts on the entire show:

Villefort pulls a Starnes. Danillo Villefort pulled a Kalib Starnes, running frequently from his opponent throughout the fight. The fight started pretty competitively against Jesse Lennox but he quickly earned the ire of Philadelphia's frenzied fans, and rightfully so.

Sotiropoulos! Prepare for glory! George Sotiropoulos was playfully labeled "George of Sparta" on TUF in an homage to 300. But those cries may be valid... he's as tenacious and strategic as Leonidas. He's going to be one to watch in the lightweight division. Roop deserves respect for taking the fight on relatively short notice.

Best. Entrance music. Ever. In addition to coming back from a losing first round to Dan Cramer, Matt Riddle got major props (and tons of fanfare) for entering to Michael Jackson's "Beat It." It was a competitive fight, and this should've gone on the main card instead of the Riley-Nelson snoozer.

Welcome to the Thales Leites Show. Here's your pillow. This was the first fight Philly's rabid fans booed furiously. And with good reason. Thales Leites gave a repeat performance of his "Silva Plan," which apparently consisted of the bullets "Stall," "Lay Down" and "Stall." Sakara doesn't earn much respect for being unable to pull the trigger, but this fight proves that UFC 97's main event was not Anderson Silva's fault. The ref actually stopped the fight in the third and instructed these guys to engage. Never seen that. The only thing keeping Thales employed is his record so far. He's not moving to the main card after this, and making this game plan a trilogy will almost surely get him canned.

Howard's Turn. John Howard has got a ton of power in that frame. He pulled off some good slams against McCrory and deserved the win. He needs some more refinement but showed good potential.

Slow Simmer Start. The first two televised matches were pretty blah. Not gonna lie. Pellegrino/Neer didn't live up to expectations and Almeida/Grove was a bit plodding. That said, credit to both Kurt and Ricardo for enacting very precise game plans. It doesn't make for thrilling fights, but it does win the battle.

The Johny Hendricks Experience. Hendricks spoiled me going over .500 on my predictions with a shocking TKO win. I'm a little skeptical of the stoppage being appropriate, but I feel as though he would have continued to unload had Sadollah recovered.

"Hey guys, this fight is more interesting! Throwing the unadvertised rematch between Aaron Riley and Shane Nelson was like throwing a hungry dog a milkbone when it wants a steak. The fight that broke out in the audience late in the third deserved more attention than what was going on. Poor planning by the UFC here.

Rebuilding the Web. The negative reaction Anderson Silva got during his entrance/announcement was topped only by the one given to Thales Leites. The reaction to his win and celebration couldn't have been more polar opposite if we were comparing Led Zeppelin to DMX. He immediately re-ingratiated himself to the fans, and his performance should speak for itself. A lot is being made of his pseudo-handshakes and keeping his hands down. Look, if you know you're that good and can get away with it, why not? Silva to me is MMA's version of Muhammad Ali, and he's a showman in the cage. This is part of his personality, which is pretty playful and quirky. It may not go over well with everyone, but let's be realistic... it's a far cry from Brock Lesnar's post-victory speech last month. Seeing him and Henderson lock horns again should be a phenomenal rematch. To date, Henderson is the only guy to really give Silva trouble, and after his last several fights I can see him still imposing his will. That should be a great clash.

(On a personal note, let me just say I got chills when I watched Silva straddle the cage after winning like he has in previous fights. There's something to be said for that moment of glory that comes with a win, and watching him celebrate to a rousing ovation was stirring. If only he broke out the air guitar...)

Run Forrest, Run! I honestly still don't know what to make of Griffin's hasty exit. It was surreal... the PPV broadcast didn't pick up how harshly he was jeered. It was like watching a "double turn" in pro wrestling where the babyface becomes a heel and the heel becomes a babyface in a single moment. I thought early reports of him running out for an injury would sufficiently explain it, but that has since been debunked. This poses the question as to whether or not he took a dive. He looked like he was waving off the ref following Silva's knockout jab, that much is clear. But I really think he was almost verbally tapping. He knew he was outclassed... it's not like Griffin to do something underhanded like a dive. He got rocked pretty early on and charged already hurt into a pawing jab. At that point, it probably was just enough to take him off his feet. Plus, there's no known history of this in MMA, especially in the UFC. It is in Griffin's nature to be emotional (see: Griffin vs. Jardine), and I think he probably didn't take well to the loss. This will be talked about for a while, and it's certainly the number two talking point coming out of the show behind Silva's return to form.

The Prodigal Son returns. I'm not a BJ Penn fan. I can't stand his attitude and arrogance. But he looked great. Physically, it was the best he's ever looked as far as I can recall, and he enacted a phenomenal gameplan. Good defense for the first three rounds leading to a strong takedown and masterful transitions between getting mount and the back. His flexibility is absolutely crazy! Florian looked confident going in, but that very quickly changed to obvious confusion. He just couldn't overcome Penn's game, but he did try hard. Penn's dominating performance really solidifies that this is the best weight class for him. Comparing Penn's physique in his fight against GSP and his physique Saturday night is like night and day. Not since Frank Mir has anyone made such a huge leap in conditioning from one fight to the next. If Diego Sanchez really is the current top contender, it'll be a different fight for BJ. Diego won't be quite as methodical as Ken-Flo... he'll explode fast, and that could be problematic for Penn. Either way, expect a more exciting fight when and if that happens.

Minutiae...

He didn't even compete! But who cares! The cheers GSP received were insane. My friend put it best: "All he has to do is show up."

Well look who's back... Seeing Tito Ortiz's face cageside was surreal. Can't say I'm surprised, but between him, Liddell and Couture all being in attendance, it was like an MMA legends convention. Very cool.

"Tough crowd" is an understatement. Philly has notoriously harsh fans, and UFC's debut was reminiscent of ECW's heyday at the corner of Swanson and Ritner. These fans were not shy about showing their dissatisfaction. That said, it made for a very interesting night. This is all the more reason Silva's win was impressive: he turned perhaps the most critical sports fans in his favor. Not easy to do.

It sounded like I had cauliflower ear... I don't know if it was where we were sitting or the acoustics, but we couldn't hear Buffer or Rogan well at all. A lot of the amplification was drowned out amongst the crowd noise, and it wasn't until viewing the pay per view broadcast last night I was able to hear just what was said.

Above average Joe. I want to thank Joe Rogan for alluding to the crowd fight that took place during the Riley-Nelson fight. I was worried it would come off like the crowd was into the fight on PPV, so at least they didn't try to disregard it as though we liked what we were seeing live.

Human highlight reels. Other than the time on the mic, the production values placed on the show are very high. It definitely helped the crowd get fired up, especially a video package that was shown just before going live set to the tune of "Baba O'Reilly" by the Who. Phenomenal job. This is a huge reason why UFC has risen so astronomically. If boxing pay per views could offer this type of production value, they'd be receiving a lot more attention, no question.

Overall, for my first UFC experience I was happy. There was a pretty equal mix of spectacle and blandness, and I'll concede this was probably the weakest UFC PPV of the year. That said, watching Silva, Penn and Sotiroupoulos really made the night for me. I'm hoping they come back to Philly, and rumors of a stadium show at Fenway Park have whetted my tongue severely.

I went 2-5 for my main card predictions, making the to-date ILK record 0.400. Granted, I did pick Florian for an upset, so I took a chance. I'll keep these coming for future PPV's and WEC and Strikeforce events as I become more familiar with the talents.

Speaking of which, I just caught the main event of WEC 42 last night before bed. Damn, that was a shocker. I DVR'd the event so I'll have thoughts posted later this week for sure, in addition to my pound-for-pound rankings, no doubt affected by the weekend's events.

UFC 101 Predictions

2009-08-05T08:57:00.000-04:00

UFC 101 is upon us this weekend. After the landmark 100th show and MMA's latest shake-up between Affliction, Strikeforce and UFC, this already stacked show seems that much more exciting. Take into account that WEC 42 is a mere 24 hours later and Strikeforce's Carano vs. Cyborg fight is a week thereafter, this kickstarts the biggest month for MMA in 2009, which will culminate with UFC 102 on the 29th.

Helluva way to end the summer.

I'm particularly stoked because as I mentioned, I'll be in attendance at this particular event. It's my first UFC show since they don't often come to the northeast, and it features some of my favorite fighters. Not to mention a sentimental favorite. That said, here are my predictions for the main card:

Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino: On a card where the co-main events could really go either way, this has potential to be the most competitive fight of the night. I like the match-up here of wrestling and BJJ. Pellegrino's no joke, but Neer seems to have him oversized here. I see Neer's wrestling stifling Pellegrino's Jiu-Jitsu should this become a ground war, ultimately making way for a first round KO win.

Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove: This one hits slightly close to home for me. I train at Renzo Gracie Connecticut, and Almeida is one of Renzo's many black belts. To say I'm biased would be an understatement. I'm not taking anything away from Grove, but his ground skills don't compare to Almeida's. I know this for fact. I predict Ricardo's last fight before moving down to welterweight will be a win by armbar in the second.

Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks: It's been a while since Amir Sadollah did anything other than host "Inside the Octagon." The TUF Season 7 Winner was set back twice due to injuries sustained during training, putting off his big stage debut by nearly nine months. Hendricks is a good wrestler, but I doubt he'll be able to cope with Sadollah's Muay Thai striking. Sadollah nabs his first non-submission win: TKO in the second.

Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin: This will be a very, very interesting fight to watch. Anderson Silva's last two outings against Patrick Cote and Thales Leites have been notably lackluster. The normally explosive Silva was anything but against both men. I'd contend we'll never know if he'd change that in the Cote fight due to Cote's blown knee. The Leites fight was a massive disappointment. Not to be an apologist, but I attribute that more to Leites than Silva for his apparent fearful approach. It doesn't jibe with Silva's counter-striking style. This fight, however, is almost tailor-made for the man. There may not be a guy with more heart than Forrest Griffin, and he'll provide the Spider with a great challenge. Both guys are great strikers and solid on the ground. However, the only way I can see Forrest winning is by decision, which isn't likely. He's shown a vulnerable chin to knockouts before, and I think this time will be no different. Silva's instincts kick in late in the second to counterattack and get the win by TKO.

BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian (UFC Lightweight Championship): I've been excited about this fight for a while, and I expect a very competitive match-up. Penn is back in the weight class best suited for him after a rout by GSP, and Florian has been polishing his game for a while now. Penn obviously lives up to his alias as a prodigy with insane flexibility perfect for a five-star BJJ ground game. However, Florian has grown tremendously as a fighter over the last four years, now on a six-fight win streak. To me, BJ, as good as he is, spent a great deal of time focusing on trying to make his case in the "Greasegate" debacle. His training has often been questionable, and quite honestly one well done YouTube clip of him jumping three feet out of a pool isn't enough to convince me he's approached this scenario any differently. Florian lives to train and has shown vast improvement all around. I'm going for the upset here with Florian pulling off a TKO victory in the third. He's got a four inch reach advantage which makes me believe he'll use that to keep BJ at bay, preventing an extensive ground war from ensuing. You heard it here first!

So with that said, I'll be sure to work on my post-show thoughts on this and WEC 42 next week. Enjoy the big weekend, all.

What Can Be Learned from the Wrestle-Boom

2009-08-03T21:06:00.000-04:00

With the massive upheaval in MMA at the end of July, Affliction has joined the ranks of EliteXC and IFL as potential number-two promotions. All three promotions made strong efforts to earn a name for themselves, signing well-known talent and promoting through the best vehicles possible. And yet, all three met the same fate.

Before going any further, I should note that being under the Zuffa umbrella, I consider WEC to be a branch of the Zuffa family and UFC as a whole. It's kinda like how Taco Bell and KFC are both owned by the same company. From a business standpoint, it's hard to consider them competition to one another.

Having said that, today's news that Strikeforce has signed Fedor Emelienenko seems to successfully establish them as the clear-cut second to UFC's dominance.

Of all the previous names mentioned, they seem to have the most potential for long term success. Strong, visible distribution (Showtime), a marketable mainstream star (Gina Carano), veteran names known to longtime MMA fans (Frank Shamrock and Andre Arlovski, who, even though both may be finished, have offered credibility with their presence), excellent competitors known to genuine MMA die-hards (Diaz, Lawler, Smith, Shields) and new stars just beginning to catch on and make their own name (Brett Rogers).

But that doesn't mean they're bulletproof by any means. You can throw all the money in the world you want at a promotion, but that doesn't mean it'll float. Just ask Mark Cuban and Donald Trump.

You could also ask Ted Turner. 20 years ago, he made a play that would ultimately distinguish him as owner of the top professional wrestling promotion in the world: World Championship Wrestling (WCW). Yet a mere 8 years ago, all of WCW's assets were acquired by Vince McMahon, chairman of the World Wrestling Federation (now the WWE: World Wrestling Entertainment).

Let me make something clear: I acknowledge and agree with the fact that MMA and pro wrestling are technically worlds apart. I grew up a wrestling fan who evolved into an MMA fan, and just because there have been some competitors who crossed over and back (Brock Lesnar, Ken Shamrock), I am well aware of how different both worlds are in terms of the training, schedule and overall atmosphere.

However, you have to admit on a business level, they're pretty similar. Whether the fights are real or staged, both Dana White and Vince McMahon are in the business of selling competition. Plain and simple. Both have viable presences on pay per view and television. And both appeal to a similar demographic. I would also argue that they are what's known as "indirect competition." Red Bull is not a soda, it's an energy drink. But because it's a beverage that could be bought in a cooler at your local Mobil on the Run, it still competes with Coke. Same mindset for the MMA/wrestling connection.

You could also compare the rise in popularity of MMA to the second "wrestle-boom" from the late 90's. WWE was on the ropes at the time, struggling to survive. Through the stars seemingly aligning in just the right configuration, they quickly went from deathbed to overnight sensation. In my hometown back then, you'd be hard-pressed to stroll through a mall without seeing someone wearing a shirt bearing the likeness of "Stone Cold" Steve Austin or the Rock.

Huge ratings, huge PPV buyrates, massive mainstream media success. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

Also at this time, while WWE was clearly the dominant brand, the other big dog also experienced a surge in business, even though their numbers were frequently topped. Also, other promotions began to receive exposure and make their way onto pay per view and network TV. I'm speaking, of course, about the violent upstart fed out of Philadelphia, Extreme Championship Wrestling (ECW).

From 1997 through 1999, all three promotions battled, cat-called one another, even co-promoted. Talent was swapped like so many mid-season baseball trades, production values increased and on-screen storylines got edgier.

But from 2000 into early 2001, WWE almost seemed like a standalone entity. WCW had fallen from grace, dragging its heels to keep up while ECW couldn't even make ends meet in a quickly over-saturated market. WCW left Turner's hands and went up for sale in January of 2001. By March, it was bought by Vince McMahon. ECW filed for bankruptcy one month later, shutting its doors and also finding itself assimilated into McMahon's monopoly.

Then there was but one.

These acquisitions sound hauntingly reminiscent of Zuffa's purchases of both WEC and Pride. The difference is, there are even more contenders chomping at the bit for a piece of the pie. Given some of the historic similarities, a few things could be learned from the wrestle-boom...

1. No matter how much money a backer has, you need a competent booker/matchmaker. WCW had the Ted Turner name attached and still went under. This was in large part due to who controlled the product. Multiple "chefs" anted up to ultimately spoil the soup, delivering programming that was stale and unimaginative. Despite their early success, rehashes of past winning ideas left fans jaded.

Evidence in MMA: Donald Trump's involvement in Adrenaline/Affliction. If his bucks can't elevate/save a promotion... well, you figure it out.

2. Don't focus on the stars of yesteryear. WCW initially rose to the top with a wave of former WWE superstars such as Hulk Hogan, Randy Savage and Kevin Nash. This worked for the short-term, generating interest from long time fans who identified with those names. But without consistent development of new stars, this didn't last. There were a handful of previous unknowns who ultimately became very popular, but were underused. Unsurprisingly, they went onto become huge stars in WWE later on. (Eddie Guerrero, Rey Misterio, etc.) Fans grew to want a fresh product, and old names only hold up for so long. WCW's sole success in this category was Bill Goldberg (yeah, the dude who used to commentate for EliteXC), but even they botched that up. Pushing him aside for the aforementioned names, they continued to bring in a steady stream of big names past their prime. (Most notably the Ultimate Warrior in a universally decried booking flub) Had more emphasis been kept on Goldberg, things could have been different.

Evidence in MMA: Royce Gracie vs. Matt Hughes. I initially entertainted using Sapp vs. Lashley and/or Abbott vs. Kimbo for this example, but Royce Gracie's regrettable return to the Octagon serves us best. In a world where you can't control the outcome of a fight, there's no way to make old stars look good. Gracie helped kickstart the UFC in the early days, but the sport has evolved beyond just Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hell, just take any of Ken Shamrock's fights between 2004 and 2008 for further evidence of this rule.

3. No one name is bigger than your promotion. Despite multiple world champions over the years, WCW always seemed to focus on one individual at the top... normally Hulk Hogan or Kevin Nash. This short-sighted approach didn't fare well as it left the remainder of the roster caught in perpetual limbo. It was very hard to make new stars after they had been down in the lower ranks for so long. It also devalued the championship due to an ongoing lack of credible competition. The lowered quality of champions led to a stigma that followed many of WCW's wrestlers well into their WWE careers. Some guys never were able to shake the stink of mediocrity.

Evidence in MMA: Fedor Emelienenko. Take your pick. I detailed the promotions that folded in my last post. This is a message that should be sent loud and clear to Scott Coker and company right now... don't put all your eggs in one basket. Despite a huge step forward in signing Fedor, they still need to maintain emphasis on the likes of Gina Carano and Brett Rogers. In doing so, they stand to enhance their own name as a unique brand. Kimbo Slice also comes to mind for the high profile fall of EliteXC. But Fedor has an actual track record, so he gets the unfortunate honor.

4. Don't try to copy the big dog. It never works. Ever. Being unique is extremely important, even if it doesn't necessarily equate to innovation. You need to develop your own identity. Even though they emerged after the beginning and end of the wrestle-boom, Total Nonstop Action Wrestling (TNA) has found itself mired in a world of stagnation. In their infancy, TNA made its name by way of young, exciting stars and great action. There was still an emphasis on storytelling, but the stories themselves revolved more around competition than hokiness. Over the last two years, that's changed dramtically. TNA is now not only a prime example of Rule #2, but they are also guilty of recycling once-successful storylines. Their ratings aren't moving up, and have slowly begun to drop. Without fresh takes, this trend will likely continue. An addendum to this rule is Don't tout yourself against the competition. The second you mention the top dog, you've lost in your bid to be unique. Just be yourself.

Evidence in MMA: Affliction. The first ever pay per view featured four former UFC champions. Had things gone differently for them, Andre Arlovski and Tim Sylvia could have met for a mind-numbing fourth encounter. Affliction also drummed up press by negotiating with Tito Ortiz. The only stars in the promotion outside of Fedor seemed like UFC runoff. Not a formula for success. EliteXC also deserves recognition for their placement on major network television. It seemed like an attempt to overshadow UFC's distribution, as if to say, "Look at us and what we got that UFC didn't get." While the Kimbo vs. James Thompson match may have been the most watched MMA event in TV history, that's a mere drop in the water when you're talking about longevity.

5. Network TV deals help, but can't be leaned upon. While trying to get noticed more by the mainstream in the late 90's, ECW wound up landing a one-hour slot on The Nashville Network (TNN). After years of scant syndication in selected markets, this seemed like the big break the company needed to get adequate exposure. However, TNN demanded high production values and a toned-down product to satiate network executives. ECW wound up spending themselves in a hole to meet this needs, and ultimately filed for Chapter 11. In spite of being a highly influential promotion that undoubtedly shaped the course of WWE's boom period, ECW fell victim to the uncontrollable. Though their loss ironically became MMA's gain... TNN evolved into Spike TV, and after dabbling with the WWE, came across the UFC. The rest is TV history.

Evidence in MMA: EliteXC. Kimbo Slice's fight against James Thompson was the most watched fight in televised MMA history. More so than Griffin vs. Bonnar. But that doesn't mean much considering the final fate of the promotion. ECW was unable to live up to its known standards under TNN due to restrictions. EliteXC couldn't muster nearly enough stars or quality fights to keep people interested. The results speak for themselves.

6. Don't rely on gimmickry to grow. WCW was notorious for a rash of bad, bad gimmick matches toward the end of its run. This includes the often-mocked "Viagra on a Pole" match and putting the world championship on G-list actor David Arquette. None of the above (nor the countless other offenses) leant themselves to increasing ratings, revenues or acclaim. Each bad idea was another shovelful of soil onto a deepening grave. The focus was hardly kept on the actual wrestling, as "Shock TV" was the tactic of preference. In a business where steel cages and ladder matches are commonplace, such silliness wound up looking bush league.

Evidence in MMA: YAMMA Pitfighting. Hands down. In a business where ideas such as IFL's team approach and Adrenaline MMA's attempt at a hybrid boxing/MMA match, you gotta have a pretty shoddy gimmick to win this category. YAMMA, founded by original UFC co-creator Bob Meyrowitz, takes the cake. I'll use the description from Wikipedia since it best sums up the pit's design: "The YAMMA Pit arena was a large circular cage with a surrounding fence on the edges of a bowl-like floor with slanted edges. The stated purpose of the new structure was to prevent fighters from trapping their opponents into a corner: the rising edge of the YAMMA Pit was to prevent stalling and facilitate more action. This idea failed in practice, as the slanted edges would cause any fighter defending a takedown to lose their footing as soon as they were pushed towards it, which rendered any attempt to escape to their feet pointless as they'd just be taken down again. This led to a great deal of stalling with all but 1 of the tournament fights ending via decision (the other 3 finishes were non-tournament matches)." I think that says it all. Clearly the concept was never tested before being put into effect. Goes that outside of the Unified Rules of Mixed Martial Arts, there's not much more innovation worth pursuing in the sport at this time.

With this list (let's call it the Sacred Six), I must say Strikeforce has done a solid job so far of positioning itself, and Scott Coker deserves a lot of credit. Heck, even Dana White has given the guy credit. They haven't over-relied on old stars, have kept building new ones, make an effort to put together solid cards and haven't relied on gimmickry or imitation to make them unique. They seem to be nicely carving out their own identity and will hopefully keep moving forward. I think it's good for business because it permits fighters a second home to grow and gain exposure if UFC doesn't make an offer.

Also, as simple as it sounds, competition breeds good business. Dana White has already shown how aggressive he's willing to get by offering a live event on cable opposite Affliction's inaugural pay-per-view. Running head-to-head was also a defining mark of the Monday Night Wars (the name for the years during which WWE's "Raw is War" flagship show went up against WCW's "Monday Nitro" every Monday night for six years), and led to some strong power plays by both companies.

However, Strikeforce needs to heed the above points of warning, as they have proven true with all of the fallen to come before. It's a growing sport, and there's room for another big promotion. But Scott Coker needs to tread carefully and not get ahead of himself. Or else there's a slowly growing MMA graveyard waiting hungrily for its next victim.

What to Make of Fedor

2009-07-30T07:50:00.000-04:00

The MMA Underground is a funny scene. The pound-for-pound debate rages on pretty much an hourly basis as to who the king is. For many fans, the king is actually the emperor. The Last Emperor, that is.

Fedor Emelienenko remains the sole megastar in MMA to elude the Octagon. His talent is unquestionable, and it's easy to make an argument for someone as dominant as him being the absolute best in the world. With that said, there are two massive questions regarding the Russian Sambo master...

1. Where does Fedor really rank?

2. Will he ever compete in the UFC?

Taking a look at the first big question, to me, Fedor is in the top three for sure. However, he remains behind Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva. (I should note that to me, Silva and GSP are tied for first right now... next weekend's fight with Forrest Griffin should determine if Anderson deserves to remain the sole top dog or if he slides behind St. Pierre. I reserve judgment until then)

The biggest argument against Fedor since the collapse of Pride for years was that he wasn't in the mix with top level talent. After years of fighting the best heavyweights (Nogueira, Filipović, Coleman, etc.), the heavyweight talent pool thinned terribly, and Fedor was left to "prove" himself against Matt Lindland, who normally competes at middleweight, and Hong-Man Choi. The problems with the latter fight almost don't warrant comment. Putting a 7'2" kickboxer with a 1-0 MMA record against the sport's undisputed top heavyweight is almost criminal. This isn't pro wrestling where you can take any guy with acromegaly and make him look like a stud.

In spite of this string of farcical fights, there were still countless Fedor apologists out there (Josh Gross at SI comes to mind) who placed Fedor atop the P4P rankings.

To be fair, a lot changed when Affliction tried their hand at promoting. At least they brought in a top ten challenger in Tim Sylvia. Not that Sylvia faired any better than the Korean Monster. He was dispatched in just over 30 seconds. Fedor's next test would come in a supposedly rejuvenated Andre Arlovski. Going into the fight, pretty much everyone felt Arlovski had the best chance of beating Fedor to date. He was looking good for the first few minutes, but a well-placed right hook ended such speculation.

In the time that elapsed between those contests and the demise of Affliction, Sylvia was obliterated by the well-past-his-prime Ray Mercer in a match that shouldn't have happened, and Arlovski was bested in 22 seconds by Brett Rogers.

To me, this yields some very serious questions about the quality of these guys as fighters in spite of their top ten ranking. Keep in mind that when Sylvia and Arlovski excelled in UFC, the heavyweight division was the thinnest weight class in the promotion. Frank Mir was recovering from his injury, Randy Couture was in the light heavyweight division or retired, Noguera and Filipović were still in Pride. You could argue that with so little genuine competition, these guys were mediocre top dogs.

Think of a used car lot filled to the brim with junkers, and then two reasonable late 90's model Corollas. They'd seem like BMW's in the mix of things. That's Sylvia and Arlovski at the time.

So, given that fact, it's hard to justify placing the Last Emperor's throne ahead of Rush and the Spider. Admittedly, Josh Gross makes me mental with his unabashed Fedor man-crush. As much as I love Anderson Silva, you could argue he doesn't deserve the top spot based on his last two outings. But to take anything away from GSP after his last five fights is outright criminal.

You have to put your personal preferences aside when considering these things. Anderson Silva remains my favorite fighter, yet I'm perfectly comfortable admitting GSP may have his number. Fedor is not ahead of either, though. Plain and simple. He's undoubtedly the top heavyweight, and I don't foresee anyone giving him trouble in the near future. I think he would've handled Josh Barnett easily, and he may still. Save maybe Brock Lesnar, I don't see anyone challenging his crown.

This brings me to the second, more intensely burning question. Is Fedor ever going to be in the UFC? If the waters weren't muddy enough already, this topic is at the epicenter of the MMA Underground right now. Arguably Zuffa has the top fighter for every major weight class on the UFC and WEC rosters right now. Except Fedor. With Barnett's career in question, Lesnar may soon ascend to the #2 spot. But until he bests Fedor, that's as high as he'll get.

Negotiations between Zuffa and Fedor's management have been rocky at best. They've tried to come to a consensus before, but it just doesn't seem to be in the cards. After last week's announcement about Affliction, this seemed like the most opportune window for UFC to acquire the man... however, the sole sticking point seems to be M-1 Global. Time and again, when these talks have come up, Fedor's management is adamant that the Last Emperor get treated like royalty. The unwillingness to keep Fedor exclusive to UFC and the demand his fights be a co-promotion between UFC and M-1 are both asinine and dangerous.

Dana White knows the sport. He also knows boxing. One of the reasons the sweet science has faltered dramatically in fandom these last several years (outside of probable corruption in the heavyweight division) is because of the proverbial alphabet soup. While Manny Pacquiao is clearly the best boxer in the world, the rest of the landscape is more questionable than Tyson's facial tattoo. It's impossible to know who the best fighters in their weight class are, because there ar four sanctioning bodies involved. That's four recognized titles per weight class. And at 17 weight classes, it's pretty much impossible to reach a consensus.

If UFC were to co-promote Fedor with M-1 and permit him to fight elsewhere, it would threaten the credibility of the sport. As much as I would love to see a Fedor-Brock showdown, I have to side with Zuffa on this. Yeah, Dana White is brash and can be abrasive. His methods can be questionable at times, but he is 100 percent right in this instance.

The following quote comes from the silent majority of UFC, Lorenzo Fertitta:

"We made him the best offer out there, more money than anybody offered him –- so you can't say it's about the money. Then they come back and they say, 'Well, it's a one-sided contract.' Let's break this down from a logical standpoint. We offered the exact same contract that three hundred other guys have signed, including Brock Lesnar, Chuck Liddell, Anderson Silva, GSP, all the top stars. Why is that contract not good enough for Fedor? What Fedor wants is this. He doesn't want to be exclusive. So, it's like saying, okay, Tom Brady: 'I'm going to play for New England Patriots one Sunday, but you know what? After that game's over, I want to be a free agent and go see where I can play for the rest of the season.' Every weekend he's going to skip around and play for whoever he wants. How does that make sense for us as a business or for the fans?"

When you put it in that perspective, how can all the Fedor apologists out there still badmouth Zuffa, Dana White, the Fertittas and UFC as a whole for being unable to procure the guy? They've established themselves as the dominant brand in the business, and to permit one fighter to have that much mobility is just silly. There's something to be said for protecting your investment.

Of course, with M-1's already stellar track record of whoring Fedor out, would you really want to deal with them? Affliction... dead. Yarennoka!... dead. BodogFight... dead. Try as they might, there's no way to rationally justify their demands.

It's a pity, because there are two big losers in this equation. First off, the fans lose because they never get to see all the dream matches they've lusted for. Brock-haters will never see him shut up at the hands of Fedor. The long-awaited Couture-Fedor battle will never happen. They will have to go above and beyond their means to even see him perform.

The other loser is Fedor himself. If he genuinely wishes to cement his legacy in the sport, he needs to abandon M-1 Global. They are doing absolutely nothing for him, and the trail of dead promotions in his wake is beginning to resemble his fight record. Eventually, I can see his ranking in the pound-for-pound rankings slipping behind the likes of Miguel Torres and Lyoto Machida. After Barnett, there's no one else outside the UFC to present a credible challenge. I'm sure he'll find plenty of fights overseas, but none will come close to presenting him with viable competition.

The likely scenario to unfold at this point is Fedor signing with Strikeforce. This is better than nothing for American fans, as his performances will no longer be limited to obscure venues. Fedor will get what he wants (or maybe it's M-1 who will get what they want) as he'll be able to fight wherever he pleases. Strikeforce has shown overlap with other promotions such as Affliction and EliteXC already, and it will be a win for them as they continue to build their name as the #2 promotion behind UFC. So at least it's not a total loss.

But in spite of those positives, it's still not what anybody wants. Until he gets rid of his management, the Last Emperor will continue to show off his new clothes while his unclaimed throne in Las Vegas gathers even more dust.

Before I close, I just wanted to note that next weekend I'll be attending my first UFC pay-per-view. I'm incredible excited and will likely return with some thoughts on the experience, the show and the fighters. Expect a lengthy examination of Anderson Silva. Until then, folks...

Fighting out of the blue corner...

2009-07-29T07:53:00.000-04:00

So, I figure since everybody else has an opinion, I may as well throw mine out there. I don't anticipate this to become a massive news site to compete with the likes of Sherdog or MMA Weekly. Merely this is just my forum.

I got into MMA about three years ago, and my interest has grown incredibly fast. Now having taken 11 months of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu training to date, I have a better understanding about certain aspects of the sport than I previously did. In addition, I also have some business perspectives. Considering I never really plan on competing in the UFC or any other promotion, I don't think I have to worry much about burning bridges, professionally speaking.

So anyway, this is my new blog. Away from my other two (Landshark Sandwich and Rolling With Culture) which are more targeted in their focus. But don't let that stop you from checking them out.

First real post coming soon. Stay tuned.