Sonnen's Swan Song?

The news of Chael Sonnen's drug test failure for UFC 117 has set the MMA community on fire with coverage and speculation. Every major news outlet has picked up the story, and questions have quickly arisen about Sonnen's punishment, the likelihood of his rematch with Anderson Silva, and his overall future.

The only two people who are completely mum on the topic right now are Sonnen himself and Dana White, whose Twitter feed has not been updated since 5:00 PM Saturday. No doubt White is working with the CSAC to determine the appropriate punishment. Odds are he's also been in touch with Ed Silva to solve the riddle of who will fight Anderson Silva next.

There's a lot to this story, but it is worth trying to melt down to a few key points:

1. Chael Sonnen should not be granted a rematch. The most likely scenario is that Sonnen will be suspended for a 6 months to a year, based on prior cases in which PED's were detected. He can try and appeal, but one way or another, he's going to be suspended. For one thing, there is currently a bevvy of worthy challengers for White and Ed Silva to consider. Vitor Belfort vs. Yushin Okami has already been pegged as the fight to determine the next #1 contender to the middleweight crown; the winner could just as easily move right into the next fight with Anderson Silva. If Zuffa wants to keep the winter deadline, Nate Marquardt could be moved into the top spot following his win over Rousimar Palhares. Keep in mind Marquardt's only loss in his last five fights was to Sonnen.

But even discounting the number of potential challengers, let's say Sonnen went the last couple minutes of UFC 117 without being submitted. He would have won the fight, and upon this revelation, he would have been stripped of the title with his suspension, and a new fight would have to be set up to determine the champion. This precedent was set with Sean Sherk in 2007.

I didn't agree with Sherk getting an automatic title shot once his suspension was over, and I don't agree with the notion that Sonnen might get a shot when he is again eligible to fight. Especially given the fact his spectacular performance at UFC 117 can now be called into question. Sonnen should have to get at least one more fight under his belt before he can get a shot for the title again. Speaking of that performance...

2. UFC 117 paints Anderson Silva in an even better light. From the outset of the first round, I could sense something was off about Silva, and his performance caught everyone's attention for how out of place it was. As it turned out, his rib was injured prior to the fight and cracked some time in the first round. He endured through another three and a half rounds of punishment before slapping on the triangle choke and winning in a shocking come-from-behind victory.

But now with the added factor of Sonnen's apparent PED use, Silva's ability to withstand those four and half rounds and still be able to come out on top is all the more impressive. His opponent had an unfair advantage going in, unbeknown to all but Sonnen himself, and Silva still pulled the rabbit out of his hat. While it does not necessarily his two-year on-and-off dance routine in the Octagon, he does deserve credit for being a true champion in this instance.

Unfortunately, this also possibly explains how Sonnen was the only man in UFC history to dominate Anderson Silva. But even so...

3. Sonnen will not be fired from the UFC. There has been an immediate call from fans to can Chael Sonnen for this offense. Many fans on Twitter and various message boards have rightfully expressed anger, especially after the "Summer of Sonnen" where no MMA fan could walk ten feet without being obliged to a trademark Chael Sonnen sound bite. However, look at the facts. Sean Sherk, Tim Sylvia and Chris Leben were all caught using PED's in high profile, main event fights. Not a one of them was fired for it. In fact, two of them remain gainfully employed. Does this situation bode differently because of how huge the fight was? Perhaps. But the likelihood of Chael Sonnen being fired for this is about as thin as M-1 Global's credibility. Especially considering this is his first offense. It is still a grievous offense, but it is not as though the man has a proven track record of trying to cheat the system.

But the fans have clearly spoken. And the message is clear...

4. Chael Sonnen's reputation is in the toilet. Maybe if he had been less vocal and boisterous, this wouldn't taste as sour. Even last week, he was quoted as making outlandish statements about Georges St-Pierre and Brock Lesnar for no apparent reason other than to get attention. He was even quoted as speculating that he would be a coach on the next season of The Ultimate Fighter. Sonnen made a name for himself this summer by creating controversy and not shying away from ridiculous statements. He boasted about how he would take the fight to Anderson Silva, and true to his word, he did just that.

That's about the only time you'll find me, or anyone using the word "true" in the same sentence with his name again.

Sonnen stated after losing to Anderson Silva that he was "heartbroken." He bemoaned his track record of always coming up second. He has waxed poetic about being at his father's deathbed and promising the man that someday, he would become an MMA champion.

All of that is shot to hell now. Keep in mind, this is the same man who claims he never tapped to Paulo Filho's armbar in WEC. The same man who, for a split second, tried to convince Josh Rosenthal that he didn't tap out to Anderson Silva's miraculous triangle choke at UFC 117. And now, the same man who has been caught red-handed. He has entered Josh Barnett territory, which is not where anybody wants to be.

More than anything else, his reputation is shot with MMA fans. Few will be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, myself included. It is difficult to cheer for the man to begin with given his ego, and this will do nothing to ingratiate himself with the public.

He has no one to blame but himself. And for the first time in almost a year, Chael Sonnen has no comment. Would you?

Lastly...

5. The legacy of UFC 117 remains uncertain. It is too soon to tell how the main event will be regarded in the future. It was still a great fight, but there is a taint to it now on one side of the cage. Perhaps this controversy will elevate the reigning champion in the eyes of the public even more. Perhaps the fight will take a seat next to the elephant in the living room as the pundits say, "we don't want to mention that one." No one knows for sure, and it will be a long time before anyone can be 100% certain about this fight's place in history. And honestly, right now, that should be the last thing on anyone's mind.

This is a messy situation. One in which the best outcome possible is simply the lesser of all evils. No one truly wins in this. Even Ed Soares has stated that no one in his camp, Silva included, is jubilant at this revelation. Their names are attached to that epic battle, too. You can understand why they would want the fight to remain pure, even if it makes Silva's win more impressive.

The biggest loser is not even Sonnen himself. As I mentioned, he is responsible for his actions and should be held accountable as such. The biggest losers are the MMA fans who bore witness to this great fight and labeled it an instant classic. These are the same fans who all called for an immediate rematch that will not be happening now. The same fans who saw such greatness in this fight, they wanted to see if these two men could do it one more time and still thrill to such heights.

Those fans are out of luck, tragically. And rest assured, they will not be shy in letting Chael Sonnen know their discontent the next time he walks out to a cage.

Does the Prodigal Son Return?

Back in April, I had several friends over my place to watch UFC 112. During a long conversation that diverted us from the fight on air at the time, I returned my attention to the screen and something registered after several rounds of back and forth between myself and my guests.

I remember making the following announcement between the third and fourth rounds: "Guys, I don't know if you've noticed, but Frankie Edgar is winning..."

For someone who, at the time, was watching casually and not with my usual focused intent, that's what it looked like to me. It was close for sure. But Edgar looked faster, more aggressive, always moving... BJ Penn did not look as sharp.

He certainly didn't look like the BJ Penn of the prior eight months. Furthermore, it looked nothing like the BJ Penn of 155 lbs. Having seen every Penn fight since my interest in MMA began, I was stunned to see him look so off. Granted, he was decimated by Georges St-Pierre, but at that weight class, and with that size difference, I wasn't surprised. I didn't think anyone would be able to unseat him as champion.

I was clearly wrong.

In watching the April fight a second time, I saw it was very, very close. But I still gave it to Edgar as much as I gave the first encounter between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua to Shogun. I didn't think he blew BJ out of the water... not by a long shot. But he definitely won in my eyes.

After the fight, Penn's camp said he was fighting a sinus infection, competing on antibiotics. I did my best to give them the benefit of the doubt, but after "Greasegate," I was somewhat dubious of this claim. Though it would explain how a typically dominant Prodigy could look so lackluster. So going into Saturday night, I expected Penn to come out with a fire under his ass, ready to reclaim his crown.

What all of us saw was something much less than the Prodigy. I'm not sure what it was. But I'm beginning to think it's the real BJ Penn. The man that's left when the fanfare and tough talk is stripped away. I gotta believe this is what we're seeing.

Nothing can ever be taken away from BJ's raw talent. However, his conditioning has long been called into question. Along with his heart. Let's not forget this is the man who once left the UFC and MMA altogether when he felt he no longer wished to fight. This is the man who sought excuses for his last two losses to GSP and Edgar.

I suspect this is the guy who looked outright lost after the second round of this Saturday's rematch.

I believe Penn is tremendously gifted as a fighter. But I question his heart. I think back to just last month when Brock Lesnar was getting obliterated by Shane Carwin, then managed to come back by the skin of his teeth and won after a dismal 10-8 round. I think back to earlier this month when Anderson Silva had been dissected by Chael Sonnen for four straight rounds and pulled out a miracle submission with just minutes to spare. I think back even further to Minotauro Nogueira's third round magic guillotine against Tim Sylvia. Or Matt Hughes' unexpected escape from Frank Trigg's choke a couple years before that.

These are the things that, in my opinion, make for great fighters and memorable champions. Fedor Emelianenko was once notorious for these comebacks. No one can question the heart of these individuals.

I believe BJ Penn is more naturally talented than Frankie Edgar. But Edgar is a much harder worker, much more naturally hungry. Much more intense in his demeanor in the cage. And this makes me want to cheer for him more as a fan.

I believe Penn was vastly over-matched against his 155 lb. opponents from 2007 to April of this year. It explains why he blew past everyone not named Georges St-Pierre until he faced Edgar. And now, he has to be questioning his own viability in this sport.

I'm not sure where BJ goes from here. If he rematches with Kenny Florian, he will probably be victorious. Other possible fights remain against the likes of Takanori Gomi and maybe even George Sotiropoulos if the latter can notch another win on his record.

But that depends on if he wants it badly enough. He's lost twice in a row to Edgar now. One time, he lost convincingly. Should he climb up the ladder to face Edgar or Gray Maynard, he is likely to have massive doubts going in. If he moves up to 170, he has a stacked division to contend with, and another massive hurdle in GSP, who has also defeated him twice.

It is a difficult choice to make. I certainly don't see him dropping to 145, I don't think his body could take it. Welterweight seems like a probable move, one that he has considered for a time according to most reports. But I don't think he'd fair well in that weight class under the current conditions.

I think the best move for BJ is to heavily consider what is best for him next... and to make sure whatever he decides, he goes about it with the utmost seriousness and dedication.

BJ can be the best. He can make a comeback and reclaim his title of best lightweight in the world. The question is, does he want that? Already videos have emerged stating he's looking to return to the cage soon. That's great, but at this point, we have no idea which BJ is gonna show up... the guy who backs up his boasts, or the guy we saw last weekend.