Sweet Silence: Why the Debate was Over before UFC 118

Although tonight's main event at UFC 118 will feature a rematch after the somewhat controversial Frankie Edgar vs. BJ Penn title fight from Abu Dhabi, it seems that most eyes are concentrated on the co-main event. A fight that brings years of comparison and debate to a head. A fight that embodies the spirit of the argument itself -- MMA vs. Boxing.

Many eyes will be on Randy Couture vs. James Toney, especially those belonging mainstream sports writers and pundits from both sides of the divide. James Toney has been extremely vocal about his desire to KO Couture and make a statement about the more dominant sport. His interviews have been brash and boastful enough to make even Chael Sonnen blush. Couture comes to the fight with his same soft-spoken demeanor and unwavering confidence. He has said little with regard to the sport vs. sport debate, and he doesn't need to. His stance is that he has a job to do, and that job is to win.

James Toney is a great talent in the boxing ring. His pugilistic career spans 20 years, and at a 72-6-3-2 record, he has walked away with a raised hand in nearly 87% of his fights. That doesn't come by accident. In a sport where anyone has a puncher's chance (See Serra vs. GSP), he has the opportunity to KO Couture. He has the chance to make the statement he things he will.

And none of that matters, because Toney's odds of winning are about as good as the chance of an Art Jimmerson comeback.

This is not a one-dimensional sport. By that, I mean there is so much more to it than striking. I understand there are variant boxing styles. There are power strikers, technical strikers, multiple stances, it is a complex and dignified sport. I can't take that away from the sport. However, while the fight itself hearkens back to the style vs. style days of the earliest UFC events, much has changed about the promotion, and the sport once simply known as NHB (No Holds Barred).

This is not like Royce Gracie's vs. Jimmerson, where it's the Jiu-Jitsu master versus the Golden Gloves champion. MMA has evolved by necessity. To be successful, one must master multiple crafts. Striking, grappling, submissions, clinch work, cage control... it is a more dynamic sport for these reasons.

Boxing has not drastically changed since the early part of the 20th century. While the caliber of athletes to put on the gloves may have escalated, the same principles remain.

That being the case, unless James Toney is a savant, he doesn't have a prayer. And the sport of MMA will forever be a more challenging sport for fighters.

It is perhaps serendipitous that just this week, Kimbo Slice announced his intent to make the jump from the cage to try his hand at boxing. While his street fighting knockouts are well documented, his MMA career is even more notorious for his shoddy ground game.

That is why UFC 118, while it promises to be entertaining, will not ultimately matter in this debate. The truth has been out there for years.

Additionally, from a business perspective, the UFC has had boxing's number for years. Since the rapid ascent of the UFC into the mainstream from the mid-2000's on, the sport of MMA has been eternally compared to the sweet science. It is a fact that UFC owns 8 out of the top 10 sports PPV's annually. One of the other spots belongs to WrestleMania, and the top spot typically belongs to a boxing event, featuring either Manny Paquiao or Floyd Mayweather, both of whom have wrested the box office crown from Oscar De La Hoya.

It is also a fact that boxing will never truly "die." That said, its popularity has faltered dramatically.

Lackluster PPV's. A title scene about as clear as mud. Few recognizable mainstream names. And a superfight that may never happen.

It doesn't matter where this decline began. You could argue it began with Mike Tyson's imprisonment. Or his fight with Evander Holyfield. Or perhaps back even further with Don King's influence. The fact is, boxing is no longer what it once was, and another sport has ascended as the top combat sport. And Zuffa are the kings of the cage between UFC and WEC.

While MMA may forever be linked to boxing because of the spectacle, the venues, the atmosphere, the verdict was delivered a long time ago. All hail the king.

The Fitch Paradox

Joe Silva has a quandary before him, and it weighs 170 lbs.

The welterweight division is a big one for the UFC, but its champion just happens to be Georges St-Pierre. The man who has wrested the title of “world’s most dominant welterweight” from Matt Hughes, and put on dominant performances for the last three years. Oh, and depending in who you ask, he’s also the #1 or #2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.

GSP has just about cleaned out his weight class, and save maybe one or two realistic “fresh” challengers (Jake Shields comes to mind), we’re at the point where his contenders are “reruns.” Guys who already had their chance but came up short. Josh Koscheck is the first to ready “syndication” in this instance. After him, topping this list is AKA teammate Jon Fitch, perhaps the world’s most paradoxical fighter.

Going into UFC 117, the rematch between Fitch and Thiago Alves was initially promoted as a #1 contender’s fight, with the winner getting a second shot at GSP. Despite Fitch’s win, immediately following the fight, White was hesitant to confirm Fitch was the man to face the winner of GSP-Kos 2. It was reminiscent of White’s fuzzy stance on Dan Henderson this time last year. After Henderson KO’d Michael Bisping in convincing fashion, many were under the impression he would be the next to get a crack at Anderson Silva for the middleweight crown. Clearly, that never came to fruition.

But whereas Hendo’s potential shot went up in flames due in part to contractual negotiations, Fitch’s is in limbo because Dana White is painfully aware of one fact: Fitch is boring.

As good a wrestler as Jon Fitch is, he causes audiences more pain than his opponents. After watching him control Ben Saunders for 15 straight minutes in person at UFC 111, I cringe at the thought of seeing him do the same to contenders in an alternate Bizarro World where he’s welterweight champ.

Fitch’s last five fights have had him winning by unanimous decision time and again. In all fairness, 3 out of GSP’s last 4 title defenses have come by way of UD, too. Heck, if BJ Penn’s corner didn’t throw in the towel after the fourth round, odds are that fight would have gone the distance as well. But the fundamental difference between St-Pierre and Fitch is that the incumbent champion does make an effort to finish his opponents. While he predictably takes them down and controls them, he’s always working. Throwing shots, looking for submissions, being active on the ground. Fitch hardly does that. Last Saturday against Thiago Alves, he started looking for a choke late in the third round. But by that point, he hard already cemented his victory by taking Alves down and controlling him every single round.

He’s grueling to watch. And yet his record speaks for itself. Fitch subscribes to the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” school of thought, and is unwavering in his methodology. But the fans have long begun to turn on him. In pro wrestling, his fight would be known as the “Popcorn Match;” a match in which the fans are unengaged and use the restrooms or get concessions.

Fitch’s dilemma shows that while you can convincingly win fights, you can’t necessarily win fans. Until he displays more thorough killer instinct, he may be second to GSP, but he will remain lost in fans’ hearts. I don't believe there are many fans out there who would want to see him defending the welterweight title, holding opponents in one place for 25 straight minutes without barely throwing a blow or going for a submission.

In a world where fans want to see Anderson Silva dropping bombs instead of dancing to wins, Fitch will forever be lost in the shuffle. Fans have cooled on him, and it's possible Dana has as well. If Fitch wants that second title shot, I'm of the mind he's going to have to show it more with one more fight. My take is that Jake Shields should be next in line should he defeat Martin Kampmann. Fitch should take the loser of that fight and show some hunger in doing so. Being the #2 in your division isn't enough. Zuffa needs to tout it's champions, which is one of the reasons UFC 112 was borderline disastrous given Anderson Silva's performance. Were it not for Chael Sonnen, UFC 117 would not have broken a million buys, period.

Besides, if Fitch does get another crack at GSP, he should know his wrestling won't do any good. One way or the other, Fitch has his own paradox before him: fight or falter. The choice should be obvious.

The Perfect Storm

Saturday night, the conditions were just right in and outside of the cage for the perfect storm.

You could not ask for a better combination. Hype. Trash talk. A clash of styles. An embattled champion. A brash challengers. A hint of controversy. And a miraculous comeback.

There’s something about this fight that vaguely reminded me of Rocky III, with Rocky Balboa having to redeem himself in the eyes of his critics against Clubber Lange after a string of wins against questionable contenders. Skip the loss to Lange and Mickey’s death, add in a bizarre performance in which Rocky moonwalks in his last title fight, and that is essentially the story of Silva vs. Sonnen.

I, like pretty much everybody else, thought the reign was over. Chael Sonnen not only talked a big game against Anderson Silva, he came in and enacted his game plan to near-perfection. To his credit, I knew he was a legitimate threat (or at least expected him to offer some semblance of a challenge) to Silva’s crown. I didn’t expect him to dominate the champ the way he did.

In the early rounds, I thought Silva was baiting him, trying to tire him out and go for an armbar from the guard. It quickly became apparent that it was actually Sonnen's plan in action. Continuously, he executed precise, stifling takedowns and managed to avert any submission attempts. Silva opened each round trying to gain an advantage as the aggressor, abandoning his standard counterstriking strategy. Sonnen ate a few hard shots, but nevertheless managed to stick to his plan and stuff the champ, inevitably outstriking him nearly 10 to 1.

The stats are incredible. Silva absorbed more strikes in one fight than his in his entire career inside the Octagon.

Between rounds, the look on his face told the story. “I am not only losing… I’m lost.” The look on Sonnen’s face was buttressed by the words of his corner. “It is within grasp.”

Going into the fifth, the outcome was clear: “Silva has lost. Within two days, Sherdog will revise their divisional rankings with Sonnen on top. A day after that, their pound-for-pound rankings will show GSP as the best in the world with Jose Aldo as runner-up. Silva may drop from the list altogether.”

Then at 3:10 in the final round, the outcome changed.

A triangle choke slapped on tight. An attempt at escape. More contortion from the champion. More struggling from the challenger. A brief, Fedor-esque tap on the thigh. Josh Rosenthal’s struggle to break the hold, and then chaos. Silva refused to relinquish, Sonnen denied the tap… and within less than a minute, the replay clearly showed what Rosenthal’s sharp eye caught. And like that, it was over.

But for more than 22 minutes, this hypothetical outcome was the farthest thing from anyone’s mind.

Silva’s victory solidifies him as a champion. No one is talking about his insulting performances against Patrick Cote, Thales Leites or Demian Maia today. He was pushed to the limit, defeated, and did the impossible.

Sonnen’s loss marks him as a marquee fighter. In defeat, he did what no one has been able to do to Silva in his entire career. Despite Silva’s early losses in Pride, he had never been decimated from bell-to-bell. He had never been made to squirm or forced to doubt his stature. Sonnen humbled him for 99% of the fight. He talked he talk and he damn sure walked the walk. He has nothing to be ashamed of in his endeavor. He did what no one else could do in the last four years: make Anderson Silva look human.

Let’s be clear… neither man fought the perfect fight. Holes in both men’s games were glaringly exposed. For Silva, it’s wrestling. He struggled with Dan Henderson for a full round before putting him away, and against a younger, hungrier Chael Sonnen, he was completely outmatched. For Sonnen, it’s submissions. 8 of his 11 losses are by way of submission. That’s approximately 73%. For both men, we already knew these facts. However, they were cracked wide open for the world to see this past Saturday in Oakland.

And despite all that, they have earned our respect.

Despite their initial disrespect (Silva’s to Maia, Sonnen’s to Silva), we are compelled to applaud the efforts of both men.

Despite the fact that Sonnen dominated for 22 minutes and couldn’t win, or the fact that Silva only “owned” ten seconds of the fight, they have captured our imagination. Forget the prolonged hold, the tapping protest, even Silva’s remarks about his ribs. These guys epitomized the beauty of MMA.

The question on many people’s minds is: should there be an instant rematch? I’m torn on this, only because Vitor Belfort was promised a shot in November of last year, and has been waiting patiently since April. On the other hand, Sonnen made a strong case for himself. If he were to be granted an immediate rematch, this would be the third “instant” divisional title rematch in one calendar year (the other two being May’s clash between Shogun and Machida and the upcoming tilt between Edgar and Penn). That has to be some kind of a record, and genuinely speaks to the quality of each division’s contenders.

Everyone was elevated in this match. Not just the fighters, but Joe Silva, who put together a spectacular card and a remarkable main event, and especially Josh Rosenthal. This is the second consecutive title fight he has refereed (the other being last month’s Lesnar-Carwin showdown), and the second in which he made an excellent call that required great observational skills. He deserves to be launched into the upper echelon of active MMA refs along with McCarthy and Dean.

Saturday night, the conditions were just right in and outside of the cage for the perfect storm.

For those of us who watched, we felt blessed just to be caught in the downpour.