WEC 44 Predictions

Four big cards in just 15 days... good lord. Well, let's not waste time and get right to it... WEC... Mike Brown's third defense against a game Jose Aldo... An Armenian invasion... free on Versus. Big night, ironically enough competing with tomorrow's TUF broadcast.

Speaking of which, due to travel, the holidays and the extreme amount of predictions and event reviews on the horizon, I'm consolidating my TUF thoughts for last week's show with tomorrow night's episode and the final broadcast next week. Just an FYI.

Anyway, here we go.

Danny Castillo vs. Shane Roller: This should be a competitive bout between two wrestling standouts. Castillo has only one loss on his record, that being to perennial lightweight title contender Donald Cerrone. Shane Roller's current record is 6-2, with his only WEC loss coming to (surprise, surprise) current interim lightweight champ Benson Henderson. These two guys clearly are no slouches, so who goes over? I think Castillo has the edge in submissions, and if he gets Roller on the ground, I foresee victory by choke in the second.

Rob McCullough vs. Karen Darabedyan: I'm noticing an American vs. Armenian trend going on here. Darabedyan is following the path of his training partner and former TUF contender Manvel Gamburyan in making his WEC debut, but against a very formidable and dangerous opponent. Rob McCullough is no joke, having cut (no pun intended) through several solid lightweights in WEC, only falling to Jamie Varner and the aforementioned Cerrone. Is Darabedyan's Judo going to be enough to top McCullough's Muay Thai? I'm gonna say probably not. Razor by second round TKO.

Manvel Gamburyan vs. Leonard Garcia: Manvel the Anvil made a successful transition to featherweight against John Franchi this past summer. His opponent rebounded from a Mike Brown arm triangle defeat to eke out a split decision against Jameel Massouh in August. I think Garcia has much heavier hands than Gamburyan, but he needs to keep it standing which will be difficult. I see this being something of a standoff that leads to Garcia winning by unanimous decision. Now, my question is, since Karo Parysian is Gamburyan's cousin, but trains with Garcia at Greg Jackson's, who does Karo root for?

Mike Brown vs. Jose Aldo (WEC Featherweight Championship): Aldo is coming into this fight with only one loss on his record, and probably sits right behind the current champion and Urijah Faber in the top featherweight rankings. His opponent, however, is staking his claim at being the best featherweight in history. Mike Brown is on fire right now following his epic clash with Faber several months ago. This is going to be another test for him as Aldo comes in with a strong Muay Thai background and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Whether or not his ground game will be enough to counteract Brown's strength and wrestling is a big question. A bigger question is how his striking will stand up. My feeling is that Aldo probably has the edge in stand-up, but as Brown has shown us time and time again, if he gets you on the ground, you're going to pay. I see this one going longer than the average fight, and a fourth round TKO for Brown as he cements his legacy.

On paper, this looks like a very, very exciting card. I'm more jazzed about this particular event than next month's hopeful redemption fight for Donald Cerrone. In a year where rumblings of a WEC-UFC merger have been consistent, the little promotion that could (and frequently does) is making a very, very strong case for its independence. Personally, I couldn't agree any more.