UFC 106 Predictions

What should have been a high-grossing card for Zuffa has taken a definite hit in the number of marquee fights. Although nowhere near as bad as the strife plaguing UFC 108, 106 has most definitely been under duress. That said, there has been a strong last minute effort to salvage interest in the card. Dare I say at this point, it has my interest at a much higher level than the inaugural 2010 card for 108.

First, let's take a look at the fights that were supposed to go down this Saturday night. John Howard vs. Dennis Hallman and a lightweight tilt between Clay Guida and Kenny Florian were moved to the TUF Finale and UFC 107 respectively. Welterweight stalwart Jon Fitch was slated to take on Ricardo Almeida prior to Big Dog blowing out his knee. Then a match between former title challengers was set between Fitch and Thiago Alves before an undisclosed injury removed the latter from the picture. Now joining Guida and Florian on the 107 card, Fitch will face Mike Pierce. In what was supposed to be a co-main event, Tito Ortiz was slated to return against hall of famer Mark Coleman until injury forced the Hammer to be placed on the shelf. Enter Forrest Griffin in a highly marketable rematch. Of course, that moved into the main event when it was revealed Brock Lesnar was sick. The increasingly grim picture for Lesnar's return pushed off his date with Shane Carwin even further. Possibly into interim territory.

All this having been said, I give Zuffa credit for being able to more or less salvage this card with some fun fights. This could be one of the better UFC cards this year just on basis of competition alone. So let's get to it!

Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett: Parisyan hasn't seen combat since his win-turned-no-contest clash with Kim Dong-hyun at UFC 94. This, of course, led to him testing positive for banned substances and a 9-month suspension for his troubles. For Hazelett, it's been an even longer layoff since nearly remodeling Tamdan McCrory's arm at UFC 91. This is an interesting fight as it's a Judo vs. Jiu-Jitsu face-off. Karo is arguably the most successful Judoka in MMA, and Hazelett is a grappling prodigy under Jorge Gurgel. He presents a quandary for Parisyan... to grapple or not to grapple. If Karo tries to utilize his Judo, he runs the risk of losing an arm. Therefore, he'll have to keep it standing, something he's not great at. I foresee Hazelett going for more takedowns and submissions en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Luiz Cane has joined Cain Velazquez as one of the "must-watch" prospects of 2009 with his growing list of wins in the competitive light heavyweight division. However, he'll face his most difficult test in the one and only "Li'l Nog." The younger Nogueira twin is riding a five-fight win streak after falling to Sokoudjou at the penultimate Pride event. Like his older brother, he's only been stopped once in his career. Of course, Cane has the upper hand in striking here, so the question is whether or not Nogueira's expert Jiu-Jitsu will be enough to prevent heavy hands from prevailing. I'm going to say yes. Cane is good, but has yet to face a fighter as experienced as Nogueira. There's a lot left in Li'l Nog's tank, and I see him winning a unanimous decision in a very tough battle.

Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni: The New York Badass makes his UFC return against TUF Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah. Sadollah, who has a solid fan base due to his nice guy attitude and underdog spirit, is looking to improve his 1-1 record after falling to Johny Hendricks fists in August. Baroni is looking to reestablish himself in UFC's welterweight division where he currently holds a 3-5 record. This is a tough one to call since Baroni his likely past his prime, and has only shown dominance over more inexperienced opponents in recent years. However, Sadollah's inexperience is in question. Despite his streak on TUF and over C.B. Dalloway, his chin may be a determining factor after being stopped against Hendricks at UFC 101. Something tells me this is Baroni's last hurrah, though. Perhaps the final stretch for a fighter who's at the end of the line. I think Sadollah will have learned from his loss and do a better job of keeping his opponent at bay en route to a unanimous decision win.

Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson: Just last month, I compared Anthony Johnson to Josh Koscheck prior to his short fight with Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Sure enough, the end result of that fight was the same as Koscheck's efforts against the Judoka, only much faster. Now these two are going head to head, and I couldn't be more excited. This is pretty much a battle of mirror images. Both guys are experienced wrestlers with tremendous knockout ability, and it could realistically go either way. I find Johnson to be the more explosive of the two, however. For Koscheck to win, he has to rely on his wrestling. But given Johnson's size, I see that being very problematic for Kos. Even though he fought just a month ago, 41 seconds is barely a warm-up. I'll call Johnson in the second by vicious KO. I'll also predict this could be fight of the night. One thing's for sure... bet your bottom dollar it doesn't go all three rounds. Someone is getting knocked out.

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz: When these two met in 2006, it was seen as Forrest Griffin's initial "coming out" party despite the split decision loss. A loss that is still debated over three years later. He went the distance with an inarguable UFC legend and former light heavyweight champion. Now, three years later, there are countless questions going into this rematch. Does Tito still have it? How will he perform after the year-plus layoff? What about Forrest? Is his chin shot? Is Anderson Silva still in his head? There's a very palpable curiosity factor for this one in a great "good guy vs. bad guy" fight. There's a story here, which makes it very marketable for Zuffa. There's also the element of redemption for both fighters. Griffin is coming off back-to-back losses, Tito hasn't seen a win since Ken Shamrock. Does either of them realistically have an advantage going in? In my opinion, yes. The answer lay in UFC's "teflon man," Mr. Griffin. Now I'm well aware he lost by love tap to Anderson Silva. But let's be honest... it's Anderson fuckin' Silva. No shame in losing to the best in the world. As for Tito, he's coming off major surgery and hasn't fought in well over a year. Before that, he found himself struggling against game opponents. Wins over a past-his-prime Ken Shamrock shouldn't be much to brag about, even in 2006. Forrest doesn't have knockout power, but he has more endurance than ever. I see him winning by decision, only this time it'll be unanimous.

I'd be remiss if I didn't include my quick picks for the Spike live broadcast:

Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis: Saunders by choke in the second.
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt: Rosholt by unanimous decision.

This may be UFC's strongest card of the fourth quarter before they limp into December with it's final title defense of the year. This rounds out a topsy-turvy 2009 before kickstarting 2010 with a tumultuous UFC 108. The bad news is that injuries and illness have shattered what would have been high profile, top-grossing fights including three potential title fights. The good news is that the layoff gives these athletes time to recover, meaning the wealth will be spread out in 2010. I would rather have good reason to check out multiple cards than dive into a big one and then be floating through less stellar events for months on end.

Just think about it... in 2010 we're guaranteed Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort (probably at UFC 109, shaping up to be a huge card), the rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua, Georges St-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy, and if he recuperates from his intestinal troubles before we get back into interim title territory, Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (knocking on wood). The end of the year is tough for fans anyway given the holidays, so spreading out the big fights increases the viability of these pay per views. Nothing but good news for Zuffa and for fight fans.