Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Predictions

Note: Due to a heavy travel schedule last week, I wasn't able to view the most recent TUF episode right away. To compensate, I'll condense my thoughts for last week's episode with the final prelim fight airing Wednesday night.

This is the big one Saturday. Strikeforce has put a lot of eggs into this basket, and based on the card, they're clearly hoping for a strong showing. I have to admit, while I have strong misgivings about the co-promotion with M-1 Global and how it will affect the long term health of the promotion, I'm excited about this card. Top to bottom, it's a strong lineup and makes a good case for Strikeforce's position as #2. My one hope is they'll be able to capitalize off this broadcast and promote more heavily behind their upcoming cards.

Let's get to it!

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva: The emphasis on the heavyweight division on this show doesn't surprise me. I think Coker and company is hoping this will serve as a weight class showcase, especially given the exceptionally weak fights on this season of TUF. Two out of the four main card fights are heavyweight, starting with a former UFC title contender in Fabricio Werdum and up-and-comer Antonio Silva. Werdum won his last fight in Strikeforce, but against a lackluster opponent in Mike Pyle. Silva has been on a tear, riding a six fight win streak to a 13-1 record. Granted, he has no marquee opponents on his resume save Ricco Rodriguez. However, Werdum has notorious trouble with capable knockout artists. Silva is known for his KO power, so I say he gets a TKO mid-second round.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou: I'm so stoked Mousasi gets another big platform to showcase his stuff. To me, he should be the second biggest marketed fighter in the promotion after Fedor. Even though it's a non-title fight, I don't think Sokoudjou stands a chance. To me, he's the most overrated light heavyweight to make it stateside since Pride's demise. He came into UFC being heavily touted as a guy loaded with potential. But for all his presence and cosmetic attributes, he's consistently come up short against top-tier fighters like Lyoto Machida and Renato Sobral. It'll be no different with Mousasi. I foresee the Armenian Assassin unloading his trademark barrage for another first round TKO.

Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller (Strikeforce Middleweight Championship): After successfully topping Robbie Lawler at a catchweight of 182 lbs., Jake Shields looks to return to his Shooto middleweight days in taking on Jason Miller. Miller's a tough customer with a lot of experience and wonderfully varied backgrounds. However, Jake Shields is just way, way too tough for him. Shields has been on an absolute tear with wins against notable names like Paul Daley, Yushin Okami and Carlos Condit in the last five years. Nothing against Miller, but he'll come up short and fall to a second round submission in his championship plight.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers. Well, this has been months in the making, and is Strikeforce's biggest fight to date. No argument. Rogers comes into this fight undefeated with his most recent win against Andre Arlovski. Fedor comes in... well, being Fedor. The top-ranked heavyweight in the world, the biggest name to never fight in the UFC, one of the pound-for-pound best fighters ever. And also one of the most polarizing. Up until Affliction, the argument was that Pride's biggest heavyweight had no competition. At least now he does, and the hope has to be that more contenders will step up to challenge the man. Now, Rogers is a tough guy. He clearly has the punching power. However, I don't think he has the dimensionality of Fedor. I think this fight will stay standing for a while before Fedor takes it to the ground for a rear naked choke win in the first.

I'll also predict that after this match, popular demand for Fedor to fight Alistair Overeem for the heavyweight title will be answered with a fight some time in the spring. I see Fedor winning that easily and then going onto fight Bobby Lashley. How is it I can see this trek? Simple. The pool is still very, very shallow. Whereas UFC has made a push for increased depth in its heavyweight ranks, Strikeforce has relied heavily on the name of Fedor. The trick is to get him some challengers, and short of Rogers and the two name I mentioned above, right now there just aren't a lot of options. This is part of the reason I call for Scott Coker to market Gegard Mousasi more. He's going to need to unless they want to fly through main events like Affliction did.

This isn't a make-or-break card by any means, but it calls for Strikeforce to keep up whatever momentum they gain in the process. I, for one, hope they're able to do so. Competition is nothing but good. Provided it can sustain against the 800 lb. gorilla.