UFC 106 Predictions

What should have been a high-grossing card for Zuffa has taken a definite hit in the number of marquee fights. Although nowhere near as bad as the strife plaguing UFC 108, 106 has most definitely been under duress. That said, there has been a strong last minute effort to salvage interest in the card. Dare I say at this point, it has my interest at a much higher level than the inaugural 2010 card for 108.

First, let's take a look at the fights that were supposed to go down this Saturday night. John Howard vs. Dennis Hallman and a lightweight tilt between Clay Guida and Kenny Florian were moved to the TUF Finale and UFC 107 respectively. Welterweight stalwart Jon Fitch was slated to take on Ricardo Almeida prior to Big Dog blowing out his knee. Then a match between former title challengers was set between Fitch and Thiago Alves before an undisclosed injury removed the latter from the picture. Now joining Guida and Florian on the 107 card, Fitch will face Mike Pierce. In what was supposed to be a co-main event, Tito Ortiz was slated to return against hall of famer Mark Coleman until injury forced the Hammer to be placed on the shelf. Enter Forrest Griffin in a highly marketable rematch. Of course, that moved into the main event when it was revealed Brock Lesnar was sick. The increasingly grim picture for Lesnar's return pushed off his date with Shane Carwin even further. Possibly into interim territory.

All this having been said, I give Zuffa credit for being able to more or less salvage this card with some fun fights. This could be one of the better UFC cards this year just on basis of competition alone. So let's get to it!

Karo Parisyan vs. Dustin Hazelett: Parisyan hasn't seen combat since his win-turned-no-contest clash with Kim Dong-hyun at UFC 94. This, of course, led to him testing positive for banned substances and a 9-month suspension for his troubles. For Hazelett, it's been an even longer layoff since nearly remodeling Tamdan McCrory's arm at UFC 91. This is an interesting fight as it's a Judo vs. Jiu-Jitsu face-off. Karo is arguably the most successful Judoka in MMA, and Hazelett is a grappling prodigy under Jorge Gurgel. He presents a quandary for Parisyan... to grapple or not to grapple. If Karo tries to utilize his Judo, he runs the risk of losing an arm. Therefore, he'll have to keep it standing, something he's not great at. I foresee Hazelett going for more takedowns and submissions en route to a unanimous decision victory.

Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Luiz Cane has joined Cain Velazquez as one of the "must-watch" prospects of 2009 with his growing list of wins in the competitive light heavyweight division. However, he'll face his most difficult test in the one and only "Li'l Nog." The younger Nogueira twin is riding a five-fight win streak after falling to Sokoudjou at the penultimate Pride event. Like his older brother, he's only been stopped once in his career. Of course, Cane has the upper hand in striking here, so the question is whether or not Nogueira's expert Jiu-Jitsu will be enough to prevent heavy hands from prevailing. I'm going to say yes. Cane is good, but has yet to face a fighter as experienced as Nogueira. There's a lot left in Li'l Nog's tank, and I see him winning a unanimous decision in a very tough battle.

Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni: The New York Badass makes his UFC return against TUF Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah. Sadollah, who has a solid fan base due to his nice guy attitude and underdog spirit, is looking to improve his 1-1 record after falling to Johny Hendricks fists in August. Baroni is looking to reestablish himself in UFC's welterweight division where he currently holds a 3-5 record. This is a tough one to call since Baroni his likely past his prime, and has only shown dominance over more inexperienced opponents in recent years. However, Sadollah's inexperience is in question. Despite his streak on TUF and over C.B. Dalloway, his chin may be a determining factor after being stopped against Hendricks at UFC 101. Something tells me this is Baroni's last hurrah, though. Perhaps the final stretch for a fighter who's at the end of the line. I think Sadollah will have learned from his loss and do a better job of keeping his opponent at bay en route to a unanimous decision win.

Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson: Just last month, I compared Anthony Johnson to Josh Koscheck prior to his short fight with Yoshiyuki Yoshida. Sure enough, the end result of that fight was the same as Koscheck's efforts against the Judoka, only much faster. Now these two are going head to head, and I couldn't be more excited. This is pretty much a battle of mirror images. Both guys are experienced wrestlers with tremendous knockout ability, and it could realistically go either way. I find Johnson to be the more explosive of the two, however. For Koscheck to win, he has to rely on his wrestling. But given Johnson's size, I see that being very problematic for Kos. Even though he fought just a month ago, 41 seconds is barely a warm-up. I'll call Johnson in the second by vicious KO. I'll also predict this could be fight of the night. One thing's for sure... bet your bottom dollar it doesn't go all three rounds. Someone is getting knocked out.

Forrest Griffin vs. Tito Ortiz: When these two met in 2006, it was seen as Forrest Griffin's initial "coming out" party despite the split decision loss. A loss that is still debated over three years later. He went the distance with an inarguable UFC legend and former light heavyweight champion. Now, three years later, there are countless questions going into this rematch. Does Tito still have it? How will he perform after the year-plus layoff? What about Forrest? Is his chin shot? Is Anderson Silva still in his head? There's a very palpable curiosity factor for this one in a great "good guy vs. bad guy" fight. There's a story here, which makes it very marketable for Zuffa. There's also the element of redemption for both fighters. Griffin is coming off back-to-back losses, Tito hasn't seen a win since Ken Shamrock. Does either of them realistically have an advantage going in? In my opinion, yes. The answer lay in UFC's "teflon man," Mr. Griffin. Now I'm well aware he lost by love tap to Anderson Silva. But let's be honest... it's Anderson fuckin' Silva. No shame in losing to the best in the world. As for Tito, he's coming off major surgery and hasn't fought in well over a year. Before that, he found himself struggling against game opponents. Wins over a past-his-prime Ken Shamrock shouldn't be much to brag about, even in 2006. Forrest doesn't have knockout power, but he has more endurance than ever. I see him winning by decision, only this time it'll be unanimous.

I'd be remiss if I didn't include my quick picks for the Spike live broadcast:

Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis: Saunders by choke in the second.
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt: Rosholt by unanimous decision.

This may be UFC's strongest card of the fourth quarter before they limp into December with it's final title defense of the year. This rounds out a topsy-turvy 2009 before kickstarting 2010 with a tumultuous UFC 108. The bad news is that injuries and illness have shattered what would have been high profile, top-grossing fights including three potential title fights. The good news is that the layoff gives these athletes time to recover, meaning the wealth will be spread out in 2010. I would rather have good reason to check out multiple cards than dive into a big one and then be floating through less stellar events for months on end.

Just think about it... in 2010 we're guaranteed Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort (probably at UFC 109, shaping up to be a huge card), the rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio Rua, Georges St-Pierre vs. Dan Hardy, and if he recuperates from his intestinal troubles before we get back into interim title territory, Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (knocking on wood). The end of the year is tough for fans anyway given the holidays, so spreading out the big fights increases the viability of these pay per views. Nothing but good news for Zuffa and for fight fans.

WEC 44 Predictions

Four big cards in just 15 days... good lord. Well, let's not waste time and get right to it... WEC... Mike Brown's third defense against a game Jose Aldo... An Armenian invasion... free on Versus. Big night, ironically enough competing with tomorrow's TUF broadcast.

Speaking of which, due to travel, the holidays and the extreme amount of predictions and event reviews on the horizon, I'm consolidating my TUF thoughts for last week's show with tomorrow night's episode and the final broadcast next week. Just an FYI.

Anyway, here we go.

Danny Castillo vs. Shane Roller: This should be a competitive bout between two wrestling standouts. Castillo has only one loss on his record, that being to perennial lightweight title contender Donald Cerrone. Shane Roller's current record is 6-2, with his only WEC loss coming to (surprise, surprise) current interim lightweight champ Benson Henderson. These two guys clearly are no slouches, so who goes over? I think Castillo has the edge in submissions, and if he gets Roller on the ground, I foresee victory by choke in the second.

Rob McCullough vs. Karen Darabedyan: I'm noticing an American vs. Armenian trend going on here. Darabedyan is following the path of his training partner and former TUF contender Manvel Gamburyan in making his WEC debut, but against a very formidable and dangerous opponent. Rob McCullough is no joke, having cut (no pun intended) through several solid lightweights in WEC, only falling to Jamie Varner and the aforementioned Cerrone. Is Darabedyan's Judo going to be enough to top McCullough's Muay Thai? I'm gonna say probably not. Razor by second round TKO.

Manvel Gamburyan vs. Leonard Garcia: Manvel the Anvil made a successful transition to featherweight against John Franchi this past summer. His opponent rebounded from a Mike Brown arm triangle defeat to eke out a split decision against Jameel Massouh in August. I think Garcia has much heavier hands than Gamburyan, but he needs to keep it standing which will be difficult. I see this being something of a standoff that leads to Garcia winning by unanimous decision. Now, my question is, since Karo Parysian is Gamburyan's cousin, but trains with Garcia at Greg Jackson's, who does Karo root for?

Mike Brown vs. Jose Aldo (WEC Featherweight Championship): Aldo is coming into this fight with only one loss on his record, and probably sits right behind the current champion and Urijah Faber in the top featherweight rankings. His opponent, however, is staking his claim at being the best featherweight in history. Mike Brown is on fire right now following his epic clash with Faber several months ago. This is going to be another test for him as Aldo comes in with a strong Muay Thai background and a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Whether or not his ground game will be enough to counteract Brown's strength and wrestling is a big question. A bigger question is how his striking will stand up. My feeling is that Aldo probably has the edge in stand-up, but as Brown has shown us time and time again, if he gets you on the ground, you're going to pay. I see this one going longer than the average fight, and a fourth round TKO for Brown as he cements his legacy.

On paper, this looks like a very, very exciting card. I'm more jazzed about this particular event than next month's hopeful redemption fight for Donald Cerrone. In a year where rumblings of a WEC-UFC merger have been consistent, the little promotion that could (and frequently does) is making a very, very strong case for its independence. Personally, I couldn't agree any more.

UFC 105 Thoughts

This turned out to be a better than expected card, ranking in slightly above average. This is largely due to the undercard and some career performances by the U.K.'s finest. It's great for the Manchester fans that they got to go home happy as their beloved blokes won most of their fights. It also helped the atmosphere feel more special than it may have been. Let's break it down, shall we?

Meet the New Ross, Better Than the Old Ross. Given that we were in England, I just had to break out that Who reference. Seriously, Ross Pearson looked dynamite against Aaron Riley. He exceeded my expectations and I think most everyone else's. He looked vastly improved when compared to his fight with Andre Winner. Hard to argue the stoppage, but even if Riley were able to continue, it would have taken a Herculean effort to turn the tables on Pearson. Great performance.

How did he not win his season? Matt Brown looked great against a very tough James Wilks. It was a lot more competitive than I expected as Wilks came ready to fight. I'm sure he wanted to go in there and upset Brown in front of his countryman, and he looked solid the first round in his efforts to grapple with Brown. However, Brown has a very aggressive streak that seems to take over in the last two rounds and it came down to strength and striking. How Brown didn't get farther in his TUF season is really beyond me. But he's sure making waves now. Good effort by both fighters, though.

Living up to his Name. Andre Winner looked excellent against Roli Delgado, and that was a very impressive knockout. I didn't expect much out of Rolando, as he was the red-headed stepchild of his TUF house by far. But like his TUF teammate, Winner looked to have greatly improved his game. The U.K. is 2-1 so far.

The Count Continues. A lot of people thought Michael Bisping would fall to Denis Kang's striking game. Admittedly, Kang is impressive. His highlight reel showed off some of his career-defining moments, and he clearly owned the first round. But Bisping's second round comeback was magnificent, and like Joe Rogan said, it was truly a career performance for the Count. He passed Kang's guard so easily, he may as well have been rolling his son over his shoulders while simulating a fight. It's clear the loss to Dan Henderson affected him drastically, and I think it motivated him. A first career loss can do that, and I think we have yet to see what Bisping can really accomplish.

Now that's a Debut. Alexander Gustafsson rocked Jared Hamman with that Rashad-inspired overhand right. Good debut, and a quick showcase on the main card will do him well. It's arguable how much the accidental eye poke had to do with the win. Time will tell if he really is legit.

Between a Rock and a Hard(y) Place. As I expected, this turned out to be a very good fight between these two. Many reviewers online scored the first round as a 10-10 draw, and it's kind of hard to argue that. Mike Swick, to his credit, really gutted it out and offered some great defense to Hardy's onslaught. Gotta applaud the efforts of both guys, but the duke rightfully goes to Hardy who put on a great performance. Despite not being able to finish Swick, he clearly dominated the fight as a whole and now finds himself the number one contender to GSP's crown.

A Natural Disaster? Maybe "disaster" is a strong word. But to be honest, next to the Anderson Silva/Thales Leites aberration, I think this was the most boring main event to date in 2009. Randy Couture's strategy could best be described as that cat dangling from the clothesline you see in that novelty poster: "Hang in there, baby." Some reviewers gave Vera the first round for his aggression. Hard to say. Clearly, Couture aimed to control rather than dominate, which I fear may be his career strategy in the light heavyweight division from here on in. Vera was clearly disappointed in the decision after definitively winning the second round and arguably the first. It's a tough call, but as someone noted, if you were to score the fight as a whole rather than round-by-round, he rightfully should have won. From here, it's limbo-land for both fighters... more on that in a bit.

So breaking down the main card, let's see how I did:

Main Card: 3-2 (0.600)
Career Total: 26-15 (0.634)

PTN, Minutiae...

Rule, Britannia! The U.K. had a stellar showing at this event. Discounting the Paul Taylor vs. John Hathaway fight, which featured a battle of countrymen, the Brits went 5-2 overall. This had to register well with the Manchester crowd, and probably gives Zuffa all the more reason to plan future cards there.

Stop stealing Dustin Hazelett's Gimmick. Aside from being a lackluster fighter, Roli Delgado lost more street cred when he came in sporting a massive Grizzly Adams beard. I didn't even recognize him. Scruff is out unless your name is Hazelett or Arlovski, man. Time to Nair that shit.

A Kinder, Gentler Count. The loss to Dan Henderson seemed to do more than just motivate Michael Bisping, it may have also humbled him. Hearing his post-fight thanks to his fans and noting that he's still working on improving was a very different statement than he would have uttered six months ago. Also, I have to admit it was really sweet seeing him play around with his son after the fight. When Li'l Bis applied the armbar on his dad, I turned to my cousin and said, "That'll be me and my kid some day."

A Marketable Match Made in Heaven. Seeing Dan Hardy and GSP in the cage together made me realize what an easy fight this is to sell to the fans. Here comes Hardy, the brash, cocky Brit with his shark-teeth mouthpiece, his tats and punk rock mohawk against the humble, determined Georges St-Pierre. You couldn't put together a better good guy vs. bad guy face-off if your name were Vince McMahon. Seriously, this showdown resembles Ryu vs. Birdie in the Street Fighter video game series. I personally doubt Hardy will last as long as Jon Fitch or Thiago Alves did against GSP, but that won't deter the fans from paying to watch him get his trap shut.

Senility already, Randy? I really, really question Randy Couture's state of mind if he thinks for a second his win over Brandon Vera qualifies him for a fight against Lyoto Machida. I don't think it even puts him in line to square off with top five light heavyweights. I think a fair fight would see him get the loser of this weekends Ortiz/Griffin rematch, but no way does it justify him taking on Machida, Rua, Evans or anyone between 185 and 205 with the last name "Silva." Case closed.

Yikes, we're already on tap for two more big cards? I gotta get to predicting! More to come!

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Thoughts

Strikeforce's Saturday night card marked a success for the growing promotion. It offered exciting fights, names that die hard MMA fans will flock to, and a strong mix of everything we love about the sport. Knockouts, grappling, technique and brute force.

Oh, and it had Fedor, too.

In all seriousness, Fedor's mainstream debut (let's be honest) came off very, very well, and his fight with Brett Rogers had a major "big fight" feel to it, the likes of which we saw in the buildup for this year's GSP-Penn rematch. It looked great, and the Last Emperor made a compelling case for being regarded as the top heavyweight in the world. Even though the commentary team was insistent on him being the best fighter in the world/history... more on that slant later. First, thoughts on the fights themselves.

Bigfoot Myth Debunked. In the opening round, Antonio Silva looked like he was going to prove my upset prediction right as he really tested Fabricio Werdum's chin. Those were some heavy shots, and it looked for a minute like the former UFC heavyweight was in danger of suffering another knockout loss. However, credit Werdum with being able to turn the tables in the subsequent rounds and use his BJJ acumen to stave off the loss. Perhaps if Silva didn't try to match Werdum's grappling game with his own, he would've attained the win. In any event, it was a great night for Werdum as he continues to place himself in the upper echelon of Strikeforce's heavyweight ranks.

Strikeforce's Spider. I'm gonna come out and say it right now: Gegard Mousasi is Strikeforce's answer to Anderson Silva. Lethal counterstriker, consistently cool in the cage, competes and dominates in multiple weight classes, insane win streak, it all adds up. Gegard is becoming my favorite fighter to watch behind Silva, and for the most part, he looked good Saturday. I'll say this much, Sokoudjou surprised the hell out of me with his early aggression in Round 1. He kept the Armenian Assassin on his toes and put his ground game to the test. The first round was very close. I mean Machida-Rua Round 1 close. But by the time the bell rang for the next five, it became clear how this would turn out. Sokoudjou looks impressive, but his gas tank has an ongoing leak. If he could only improve his conditioning, he'd be dynamite. Despite his early assault, Mousasi never looked scared or surprised. That eerie calm is his apparent trademark... I'm loving this guy.

Somewhere, Carlos Newton is Planning to Sue. That's all I have to say about Jason Miller's pompous entrance. If he wasn't a Chicago boy, I doubt he'd have gotten as many cheers as he did during the lengthy "Booty Sweat" dance-off. I would normally save this observation for PTN Minutiae, but considering it was the most exciting part of the 25-minute affair, it deserves the title slot. This was hardly an exciting fight and Jake Shields did little to endear himself to critics. He simply did what he had to do in order to secure the title. Miller put up more of a fight than anyone expected, and like Sokoudjou, I give him credit. It just wasn't enough to make the win happen.

The Punch (Literally) Heard 'Round the World. This was honestly the most exciting heavyweight tilt in terms of the atmosphere I've seen since Couture vs. Lesnar. Even the crowd was split, with purists backing Fedor and the loyalists behind the hometown hero from Sam's Club. Brett Rogers put up a helluva fight, even exhibiting some elementary ground game in the process. Fedor hasn't been tested like this since his days in Pride. If Rogers could have kept his energy up, who knows how it would have gone? He landed a few clean shots and left Fedor's rosy red shnoz looking worse than before. I'm surprised it's not broken, it sure as hell looked it. But Fedor showed his dominance against the big man, along with surprising agility. His tribute to the Flying Hendo Hammer looked like it would've killed a normal man if it had landed, and showed off his Sambo game amidst a barrage of fists with a nice armbar attempt. Way to keep cool under pressure. And then there's the punch itself. We've been treated to some brutal knockouts this year. But I can't recall one you could actually hear. My cousin came over Sunday to watch the fight as I'd DVR'd it, and his jaw dropped just as Rogers' frame did when he heard the punch land. It was vicious. Fedor silenced a lot of critics with this fight. I may still not agree with his management team, but the man himself is the real deal. Period.

Overall, I really enjoyed this card in spite of the middleweight snoozer. Strikeforce really got to showcase some colorful personalities and could make a strong case for future stars in the game. The show popped a 2.3 rating and averaged 3.79 million viewers, which is phenomenal for a Saturday night. It may not have topped Kimbo's prime time debut with EliteXC, but it still made a strong case for the viability of the sport and the brand itself. Keeping up the momentum is crucial to Strikeforce at this point. Here's hoping they continue to impress.

Let's see how the predictions record stands...

Event Total: 3-1 (0.750)
Career Total: 23-13 (0.639)

Still got it. PTN, Minutiae...

I'll DJ for $50... Please. I understand it's a network broadcast, and that limits what can be done in the way of entrance music or background music for that matter. But please... Scott, can we do something about the choice in ambiance? The music was a massive buzzkill for me. Even WWE has edgier tunes. I may be nitpicking here, but production values count for something, too.

While we're griping... Can we get a better announce team? Aside from Frank Shamrock and Steven Quadros, I don't know who any of these people are. They should at least know the difference between the Nogueira brothers and how to pronounce certain names.

Only Loren Coleman and I got that reference. During the Silva-Werdum fight, one of the announcers referenced the "Patterson Film." He's talking about the Roger Patterson film from 1967 which supposedly captures an actual sighting of a Sasquatch in the Pacific Northwest. 1. Way to date yourself, man. 2. Really? 3. I'm a nerd, hence why I know this.

The Red Devil Approach. Both Gegard and Fedor looked the same throughout their fights... unfazed, unafraid, almost bored. Maybe it's a camp mentality?

And now, Strikeforce's BJ Penn... In a testament to how thin Strikeforce's roster still is, Jake Shields announced his desire to pursue the welterweight title, which currently doesn't have a waist to call home. The sad thing is, it's really tough to argue with him given the number of actual weltwerweights you can think of. Here's hoping Scott Coker can use Saturday's success to get some more blood in his ranks. Some of the regulars on "Challengers" may have to step up to the main spotlight.

Nothing to be Ashamed of, Brett... Rogers seemed very tough on himself after his first loss. I understand what it means to be competitive with yourself and blame yourself in the event of a loss. But seriously, he just fell to the top heavyweight in the world and one of the finest fighters in MMA history. There's even been a case made for an immediate rematch. I think Brett ought to be very proud of those facts, but I'm not him.

Who's Next? The question is begging to be asked... for both Fedor and his Red Devil teammate Mousasi... who's next in line? Funny thing is, for once there are more options for Fedor than his colleague. In my mind, Fedor deserves an immediate shot at Alistair Overeem for the Strikeforce heavyweight title. Anything less would be silly for him. I think a number one contender's match between Brett Rogers and Fabricio Werdum could easily set up a title match with the winner of Fedor/Overeem, but after that, who is there, really? Maybe Bobby Lashley. I can see Strikeforce trying to parlay his talents the same way UFC has done with Brock Lesnar. But beyond that, good luck finding names. I'm even more lost in the case of Gegard Mousasi. How many light heavyweights are even on the Strikeforce roster? This is a quandary I wouldn't want to face.

Unbiased Opinion (For a Change). I have no problem with Strikeforce marketing Fedor as a phenom. They should, because he is. No doubt, the top heavyweight in the world. However, to call him the best fighter in the world and in history is a loaded statement. Because Dana White would say the former title belongs to his current middleweight champion, and right behind him is the welterweight king. I'm not arguing Fedor's dominance, but it's only been since 2008 he's been facing big names in his division. And like I've stated, a strong case could be made that both former UFC champions he bested were out of their element to begin with. Brett Rogers has been the only truly capable opponent he's faced since Pride's dissolution. Call him one of the best of all time, call him one of the pound-for-pound best. But don't mince words like that... both Sherdog and MMA Weekly have the 1-2-3 as Anderson, GSP and then Fedor. Not to mention the fact that neither Anderson Silva nor GSP have even looked "in trouble" for the better part of their current reigns. Fedor has been pushed by both Arlovski and Rogers. And only one of those names is relevant. Not taking anything away from the man, just saying I don't agree with the labeling, here.

So far, Strikeforce has won the race for card of the month. Three more to go, let's see if Zuffa can top this.

Ultimate Fighter Thoughts: Season 10, Episodes 7 & 8

As promised, a rundown of events for the last two episodes of TUF in my standard PTN Thought Bullets:

• The constant arguing over who's a better coach between Rashad and Rampage is pretty pointless, if you ask me. The in-fighting between these two is getting a bit tiresome, as they keep coming back to the same arguments over and over. Rashad maintains Rampage doesn't care about his fighters and is selfish, and Rampage keeps calling Rashad cocky and alluding to his loss to Machida. I can pretty much predict what will happen every week from here on in. And none of it will matter since this fight just won't happen.

• I wouldn't blame Mike if he were scared to face Marcus. Even though he's a big softie, the dude looks lethal on the ground, and at a 6" differential, that's tough to overcome.

• Matt officially gets the Diego Sanchez award for weirdest member this season. Considering you've got Darrill "The Serial Killer" Schoonover, Zak "DNA" Jensen and Wes "Camera Shy" Sims in the same house, that says a lot. The dude openly admits to hearing voices in his head. Cue the joke about having blocked one too many punches with his head.

• Scott Junk is made out to be Team Rampage's greatest chance at breaking the streak. He has a good amount of experience under his belt for sure and looks good training. Sounds like the majority of the house wants him to win, even Matt's teammates. Mr. Popularity.

• Jon and Matt don't like each other. Foreshadowing.

• Wes Sims sees an available camera and unleashes his alter ego, "The Gi." In perhaps the worst re-enactment of "American Ninja" I've ever seen, Sims "scales" the wall to a cozy Matt by the pool and does more or less nothing but try to startle him.

• Let me ask you... why did this man have ninja gear ready to go?

• Matt had a conversation with his wife in his head. If I were Rashad, I'd be scared for my safety.

• The fight is competitive, but it looks like the gas tanks here are starting at about a quarter full... the second round looks like bad pantomime as Matt takes a UD win. I hardly could focus enough to really form an opinion on whether a third round was deserved or not.

• At least it's not Machida/Shogun.

• Rampage unleashes an Yngwie Malmsteen-esque fury on door made out of balsa wood. My mind hearkens back to the days of WCW when guy would get put through tables that broke cleanly in half because they were pre-sawed. I don't think this was sawed beforehand, but it clearly wasn't built to last.

• Dana says there's not much future on this show if you're a door. So... does this mean we should call Team Rampage "the Knobs?"

• Episode 8 really endears you to both fighters nicely. Marcus comes off like a big kid, but in a very lovable way. It's kinda funny to see him freak at the arachnid crawling across the floor and then howl when it's corpse is hurled at him. At least he has a sense of humor about himself to laugh afterward.

• On the flipside, Mike is shown as being extremely concerned about his wife, who's battling cancer. I've known way too many people who've had to deal with this illness, and it's an arduous, painful process for the afflicted and their kin. I have no doubts he's genuine about it and completely sympathize.

• Mike has made some scathing comments about Kimbo being allowed to bring his wife and kids on the show, but no one else being allowed to make calls out to their family. If this is true, I call bullshit in the third degree. No need for such favoritism, as it certainly hasn't been granted to any castmembers throughout the previous nine seasons.

• The guys post a cartoon of Marcus with some disparaging remarks on his door. This doesn't put him in the best of moods, and he's not likely to laugh this one off. We saw how angry he can get about stuff like that when Rashad teased him a couple episodes back. I wouldn't want to wake that sleeping giant.

• Rampage says "titties." Darrill reacts. 'Nuff said.

• Marcus ripped through his gloves. Cripes, he needs the Lesnar/Carwin treatment with some custom made XXXXL mitts.

• The fight doesn't last long once it goes to the ground. Marcus takes the back but Mike spins into guard, or so he thinks. Marcus shoots his leg over for a textbook armbar that forces Mike to verbally tap as his free arm is still trapped against Marcus' frame. Wow. That was beautiful. If a guy his height can rock a ground game like that, he'll be dangerous, and probably will take some arms home with him.

• I just wanna say, when you have legs that friggin' long, armbars are your bread and butter in Jiu-Jitsu. Marcus knows enough about the game to know that much, as it seems to be his submission of choice in training. The Darkness breaks the streak and Rampage goes wild.

• Mike's clearly hurt, but thankfully there's no permanent damage. I predict Marcus Jones is gonna kill somebody by accident.

• Time to pick the quarterfinals, and courtesy of Marcus, Rampage actually gets to sit in on the process. Rashad is certain to remind him that he only has one fighter. These two seriously never stop.

• The matches lined up are Roy vs. Justin, Brendan vs. Jon, James vs. Matt and Darrill vs. Marcus. I'll pick Roy, Brendan, James and Marcus to advance to the semis.

• Rashad and Rampage argue. Rampage is a bad coach. Rashad ran from Machida. Roll credits.

So next week we're treated to Big Country and Justin. Dana clearly doesn't like Nelson much, so he'll be very biased in his remarks. I'm curious to see if he picks up the pace with Justin, who's clearly no Kimbo Slice (that's a compliment). We're also teased at Matt pulling out and Kimbo being put back in. I'd say this is a sure thing since they've shown it all season, but since it hasn't happened yet, I'm borderline skeptical.

I will say that Marcus has looked the most impressive of anyone so far this season. Most of the fights have been fairly lackluster or just too one-sided to say "that guy's a stud." Demico and Brendan put on a pretty good show, but Marcus absolutely blew me away. He's gotta be a favorite to win it all, and he very well could.

It's just a shame that if he does make it to the finals, his coach won't be in his corner. Rampage's retirement has taken the piss out of this season big time, and the bickering between him and Rashad on camera has lost its impact since they're not gonna fight anyway. It's a letdown, I'm not gonna lie.

Now that we're into the quarter finals, I'd say this season is a mixed bag at best. There's been lots of characters but few great fights so far. We've seen some pretty shitty gas tanks and way too many lopsided affairs. Kimbo has been a bust, but with a rumored bout against Houston Alexander, he'll get at least one more chance to prove himself. That rumor alone makes me doubt he'll actually step into the fray.

Well, we're halfway there. I'll have a bottle of Jack by my side for next week's episode. Toodles.

UFC 105 Predictions

November is a busy, busy month for my favorite sport. UFC 105 rings in only the third of six events due to be broadcast between the 6th and 21st. Think about it... that's a mere three weeks chock full of big names and big cards. And in the grand pantheon of things, this card seems a might underwhelming to me. Perhaps that's why it got the duke to air on Spike for free instead of PPV.

I have to admit, even though UFC 106 recently suffered the loss of it's heavyweight title fight, that card still intrigues me more due to the returns of Griffin and Ortiz as well as the recently added co-main event of Koscheck vs. Johnson. I love Randy Couture and respect his career to no end. But I have doubts about his 6-fight deal, and question his opponent for this card. Brandon Vera isn't the most exciting fighter, and I personally believe UFC is feeding him to Couture in order to assist a rebound for Captain America. If this card were to be headlined by the BJ Penn/Diego Sanchez fight originally intended, I think I'd feel better about it.

Still, a job's a job, and a free card is never a bad thing. Onto the predictions...

Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley: Pearson is coming off his TUF win, and Riley just avenged his questionable loss to Shane Nelson at UFC 101 in August. Pearson's first challenge isn't an easy one. Riley, at the ripe "old" age of 28, has 40 professional fights under his belt, and has yet to reach a point where age will catch up to him. I foresee him winning by unanimous decision in a strategic if somewhat boring fight.

Matt Brown vs. James Wilks: Pearson's fellow Team U.K. member and TUF winner James Wilks makes his debut against another TUF alum in Matt Brown. This is a tough one to call... while Wilks didn't impress much during the season, he put on a submission clinic against heavily favored DaMarques Johnson at the finale, winning by rear naked choke. In coming up against Matt Brown, though, he has a substantially more difficult opponent, as Brown can match him style for style. I see this being highly competitive with Wilks going for technique and Brown going for explosion. Ultimately, I see a shutout for Team U.K. when Brown wins by TKO in the second.

Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang: The United Kingdom's most famous fighter since Lenox Lewis looks for redemption against Denis Kang. This is a far cry from the Bisping vs. Wanderlei fight that was rumored several months ago, but it still provides for an interesting fight. Bisping's coming off the worst loss of his career vs. Dan Henderson, and a knockout that's destined to be replayed in highlight reels and TV show opening montages for years to come. Denis Kang is looking to add another plus to his win-loss column, currently standing at 1-1 in the UFC. I'll be honest, if Kang couldn't top Alan Belcher, I don't know how he'll do against Michael Bisping. I'm calling a unanimous decision win for the Brit.

Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy: I'm predicting this'll be our fight of the night, and it's the only clash on the main card that genuinely excites me. Swick comes in as a replacement for Kim Dong-hyun, himself having been replaced by Paul Daley against Martin Kampmann just a month ago. Prestige is on the line here as the winner is reported to be next in line for GSP's welterweight crown. On paper, this is a pretty even match. Both guys are riding strong win streaks and have been showing off their knockout skills. It's a very tough call, but I give a slight edge to Swick as he has been showing increased aggression in his last few outings. Having never been knocked out, it's hard to say if Hardy will succumb to a barrage of punches, and he'll definitely put up a fight of his own. I say Swick wins by split decision. Either way, this one will be a gem for sure.

Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera: This main event doesn't have me scratching my head... I'm shaking it, instead. I feel like Brandon Vera is really in a no-win position. If he tops Couture, he may rise a little in the ranks, but with names like Rua, Evans and (Thiago) Silva at the head of the line for Machida's title, he hardly surges forward with a win over a 46-year-old man, legend or not. If he loses, he surely gets knocked down several pegs to "Sub-Jardine" status, solidifying many opinions about him as a main eventer. Similarly, Couture is in a tough spot. Should he win, it's doubtful he'd be able to stand long with many of the names I just mentioned who are younger, more tactical and have substantially greater punching power. If he loses, it more or less cements his decline in Iceman-like fashion. To say I'm not excited about this fight is a gross understatement. I do like Couture, but this fight doesn't do much for him other than keep him employed. I do think he'll have the upper hand, though, as Vera has been known to struggle against more experienced fighters. I don't think he'll finish, but the Natural will win by UD.

So there you have it. A free card with a few high profile names isn't a bad thing. But with the exception of the Swick/Hardy tilt, there's very little being determined in the outcomes of these fights. Not to say they don't have potential to be good. But when compared to 100-104 and 106-108, there seems to be much less at stake in the grand scheme of things. Hey, at least it's free.

Now let's hope the next free one has a couple guys on it named Lyoto and Mauricio.

Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Predictions

Note: Due to a heavy travel schedule last week, I wasn't able to view the most recent TUF episode right away. To compensate, I'll condense my thoughts for last week's episode with the final prelim fight airing Wednesday night.

This is the big one Saturday. Strikeforce has put a lot of eggs into this basket, and based on the card, they're clearly hoping for a strong showing. I have to admit, while I have strong misgivings about the co-promotion with M-1 Global and how it will affect the long term health of the promotion, I'm excited about this card. Top to bottom, it's a strong lineup and makes a good case for Strikeforce's position as #2. My one hope is they'll be able to capitalize off this broadcast and promote more heavily behind their upcoming cards.

Let's get to it!

Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio Silva: The emphasis on the heavyweight division on this show doesn't surprise me. I think Coker and company is hoping this will serve as a weight class showcase, especially given the exceptionally weak fights on this season of TUF. Two out of the four main card fights are heavyweight, starting with a former UFC title contender in Fabricio Werdum and up-and-comer Antonio Silva. Werdum won his last fight in Strikeforce, but against a lackluster opponent in Mike Pyle. Silva has been on a tear, riding a six fight win streak to a 13-1 record. Granted, he has no marquee opponents on his resume save Ricco Rodriguez. However, Werdum has notorious trouble with capable knockout artists. Silva is known for his KO power, so I say he gets a TKO mid-second round.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou: I'm so stoked Mousasi gets another big platform to showcase his stuff. To me, he should be the second biggest marketed fighter in the promotion after Fedor. Even though it's a non-title fight, I don't think Sokoudjou stands a chance. To me, he's the most overrated light heavyweight to make it stateside since Pride's demise. He came into UFC being heavily touted as a guy loaded with potential. But for all his presence and cosmetic attributes, he's consistently come up short against top-tier fighters like Lyoto Machida and Renato Sobral. It'll be no different with Mousasi. I foresee the Armenian Assassin unloading his trademark barrage for another first round TKO.

Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller (Strikeforce Middleweight Championship): After successfully topping Robbie Lawler at a catchweight of 182 lbs., Jake Shields looks to return to his Shooto middleweight days in taking on Jason Miller. Miller's a tough customer with a lot of experience and wonderfully varied backgrounds. However, Jake Shields is just way, way too tough for him. Shields has been on an absolute tear with wins against notable names like Paul Daley, Yushin Okami and Carlos Condit in the last five years. Nothing against Miller, but he'll come up short and fall to a second round submission in his championship plight.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers. Well, this has been months in the making, and is Strikeforce's biggest fight to date. No argument. Rogers comes into this fight undefeated with his most recent win against Andre Arlovski. Fedor comes in... well, being Fedor. The top-ranked heavyweight in the world, the biggest name to never fight in the UFC, one of the pound-for-pound best fighters ever. And also one of the most polarizing. Up until Affliction, the argument was that Pride's biggest heavyweight had no competition. At least now he does, and the hope has to be that more contenders will step up to challenge the man. Now, Rogers is a tough guy. He clearly has the punching power. However, I don't think he has the dimensionality of Fedor. I think this fight will stay standing for a while before Fedor takes it to the ground for a rear naked choke win in the first.

I'll also predict that after this match, popular demand for Fedor to fight Alistair Overeem for the heavyweight title will be answered with a fight some time in the spring. I see Fedor winning that easily and then going onto fight Bobby Lashley. How is it I can see this trek? Simple. The pool is still very, very shallow. Whereas UFC has made a push for increased depth in its heavyweight ranks, Strikeforce has relied heavily on the name of Fedor. The trick is to get him some challengers, and short of Rogers and the two name I mentioned above, right now there just aren't a lot of options. This is part of the reason I call for Scott Coker to market Gegard Mousasi more. He's going to need to unless they want to fly through main events like Affliction did.

This isn't a make-or-break card by any means, but it calls for Strikeforce to keep up whatever momentum they gain in the process. I, for one, hope they're able to do so. Competition is nothing but good. Provided it can sustain against the 800 lb. gorilla.