UFC 104 Predictions

UFC 104 kicks off a 3-month stretch of title fight cards for the sport's premiere promotion, two of which are held by current top 10 pound-for-pound fighters, all three of which are very, very intriguing to watch. I'll be perfectly honest, I like the challengers that have lined up for Machida, Penn and Lesnar. Whether or not they can be beaten is the big question.

This card also features the UFC debut of a potential force in the heavyweight division not not named Roy or Kimbo. Considering he's going up against the guy who was slated to fight the current #1 contender at UFC 106, you could see the makings of a future challenger, here.

From top to bottom, I really, really like this card. I think it just offers a good mix of action and technical battles. If it comes off as good as it looks on paper, we could be talking a potential event of the year contender. Factor in another two undercard fights broadcast free on Spike, and you have all the more reason to like this event. Color me excited! Let's get to the main card predictions!

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida: The last time Yoshiyuki Yoshida was seen on an TV screen, he was getting his bell rung by Josh Koscheck in one of the best knockouts of 2008. However, what we didn't see was his first round submission over Brandon Wolff at UFC 98, which took place on the non-televised preliminary card. However, he has his hands full with a guy who has been racking up impressive knockout victories and has only lost to an accomplished BJJ black belt and a series of eye pokes. Anthony Johnson is my pick for welterweight to watch. He has great wrestling, but his greatest strength is his explosive striking. In essence, he's very, very similar to Josh Koscheck. Being a Judoka, Yoshida is very methodical, which doesn't bode well considering Johnson's fire. Johnson by first round TKO.

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher: This has potential to be fight of the night, no question. It's a close, close fight to call... Fisher has been on a tear, currently riding a three-fight win streak. Joe Stevenson abandoned a one-dimensional stand-up game that lost him three fights against BJ Penn, his most recent and upcoming challengers. In doing so, he looked like a different human being against Nate Diaz. It's tough to give the edge to either guy in terms of striking, wrestling or submissions. Fisher may have a slight edge in his Muay Thai training. Even their camps are top of the heap, as Fisher fights out of Militech Fighting Systems while Stevenson recently made the leap to Jackson's Submission Fighting. Damn. Short of flipping a coin, I pick Fisher to win this one by split decision. He's been on a tear, and momentum can be huge.

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer: Both guys are coming off of losses. Tibau to Melvin Guillard, Neer to Kurt Pellegrino. On paper, this is a pretty good fight. But I see Neer coming up short. I was present for his fight against Pellegrino, and I saw how he struggled against a guy with advanced grappling. In fact, when it comes to BJJ black belts, he doesn't fare well at all. He's been defeated by both Diaz brothers, so I suspect his wrestling isn't enough to combat good escapes and ground control. Tibau by unanimous decision.

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell: This should be an intriguing heavyweight clash. These guys are similar in expertise yet different in approach. The question comes down to whether or not Velasquez's wrestling can smother Rothwell on the ground. Rothwell is the biggest heavyweight Velasquez has faced to date, so I question whether Cain will be able to toss him around or take him down as easily as he did with Cheick Kongo. The other factor you have to acknowledge is the vast discrepancy in experience. Kongo proved tougher to put away than Velasquez expected in his unanimous decision win. Rothwell is yet another guy out of the Militech camp with a well-rounded game in striking, wrestling and submissions. I think he'll be too much for Velasquez, pulling out a win by submission in the third.

Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio Rua (UFC Light Heavyweight Championship): This is the one everyone's eyes should be locked on, no question. There are, however, plenty of questions going into the fight... will Machida's elusive style neutralize Shogun's aggression? Is this Shogun circa Pride 2006? Or was his last big win due to a legend's continual decline? Will Machida's punching power be enough to floor Shogun? Will Shogun's striking speed be enough to catch Machida? I'm a huge fan fo this fight for a variety of reasons. First off, the UFC is in a no-lose position no matter who wins. Both fighters come in with strong fan bases; Rua's longtime hangers-on from his Pride Grand Prix glory days and Machida's new love affair with UFC fans. Both fighters have extremely credible records on paper. Both have proven to be exciting when the time calls for it. It's the top light heavyweight of yesteryear versus the current king of 205. While Mauricio Rua might not have been the first choice to take on the Dragon (that distinction was to belong to one of our two current TUF coaches), he certainly presents just as interesting a chess match. Perhaps more so than either Rampage or Rashad. To me, the biggest question in all this is which Shogun is gonna show up? Pride's golden boy, or the cadaver that fought Forrest Griffin and Mark Coleman. It's hard to say Rua's back based on his last fight. It was a first round TKO against Chuck Liddell, who is inarguably not the fighter he once was. Now, my thinking is as follows: If the lackluster Rua with bad knees and questionable gas tank shows up, Machida will make quick work of him. But if Pride Rua shows up, you have a fight. A fight that goes to decision in favor of the Dragon. Machida may not be unbeatable as he himself believes, but he clearly has refined his style to work in a cage. I think we'll probably find something in between... Rua has never been in a 5-round war. Neither has Machida, however, Machida has a style that conserves energy and effort until needed. I think Rua goes down in the 4th to a TKO victory, due to a lack of "intelligent defense."

Then there are the two undercard fights we have airing free on spike. Real quick my predictions:

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer: Bader by Unanimous Decision.
Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry: Hardonk by first round KO.

I'm very, very excited for this card like I mentioned. I think it will have some interesting ramifications all around, especially for the two highest weight classes. Most of all, I like the overall dynamic of fighters on board for this one. You have UFC veterans, up-and-comers in the sport, legends from Pride and the IFL, and even some TUF blood thrown in as well. It's a very diverse card from top to bottom, and I'm expecting it to be one for the ages.