WEC 43 Predictions

OK, time for my first non-UFC related list of predictions. This card has not fared well in a sea of injuries and rescheduling... rumors of poor ticket sales have fueled the rumors that WEC is in financially dire straits. This has resulted in more and more talk about the promotion's future, and a possible merger with the UFC.

But that's a topic for another time. I do plan on touching on the possibility of a merger. But for now, let's focus on the card itself. PTN, I'll stick to the main card for my predictions. I do this because honestly, there are many times when the undercard features fighters of indeterminable quality. New and debuting fighters can't necessarily be judged by a record, whereas guys that have some history can.

Cop-out? You betcha. On with the predictions.

Rafael Assuncao vs. Yves Jabouin: Canadian Yves Jabouin is making his WEC debut with this event, and faces off against a fresh Rafael Assuncao. Assuncao recently defeated Jameel Massouh at WEC 40 back in April, whereas Jabouin hasn't fought since November of 2008. We're talking a full eleven months. The kid is definitely experienced, having fought a number of fights including a loss against UFC's own Sam Stout. However, the long layoff is so detrimental to fighters. I've gone into that before here, and while I wouldn't say it's solely responsible for their losses, I'd say it affected Randy Couture and Kenny Florian in their fights against Brock Lesnar and BJ Penn respectively. Assuncao has the lethal combination of Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu on his side (in my mind, the best fusion for the sport), and is a top ten featherweight. I say he takes the win by armbar in the second.

Damacio Page vs. Will Campuzano: Campuzano is another guy on the card making his WEC debut. A relative young buck in the game, Campuzano is currently undefeated at 135, having notched six consecutive wins. He comes into this fight replacing an injured Akitoshi Tamura, and faces the very dangerous Damacio Page. Page is currently 2-1 in WEC, having only lost to current bantamweight champ Brian Bowles. Hardly a blemish considering the man is the best bantamweight in the world. Page also has MMA's greatest secret weapon on his side: Greg Jackson. Jackson has amassed the greatest collective of studs in the sport, and is constantly drawing in new faces and fine-tuning their games. (recent additions include Joe Stevenson, Jon Jones and Clay Guida) He's a strategic master, and I feel he will be the deciding factor. Campuzano is a KO artist, but Page has more experience and a better corner. Page by unanimous decision.

Richard Crunkilton vs. Dave Jansen: They could've subtitled this card "New Horizons," as the main event is the only fight not featuring a WEC debut. Dave Jansen brings his perfect 13-0 record into the Octagon against Rich Crunkilton. Crunkilton is coming back for the first time after an 18-month layoff due to consecutive injuries. He was originally scheduled to face Donald Ceronne back in June, but that clearly didn't happen. He comes into the cage with a very long absence up against an undefeated Team Quest prospect. Despite a 10-year career, Crunkilton is only 29, and has only lost to Hermes Franca and Rob McCollough. Hardly unqualified names. But on paper, Jansen looks impressive, and has already fought four times this year. I'm going to apply the "Layoff Factor" and say Jansen keeps the streak alive by way of third round rear naked choke.

Donald Cerrone vs. Ben Henderson (WEC Interim Lightweight Championship): Ben Henderson has a lot going for him into this fight. One loss on his record, an eight fight win streak and a chance to fight for the undisputed welterweight title. He also has a lot going against him. Namely an opponent who also has one loss (a controversial one at that) under the tutelage of Greg Jackson. That guy's also a very angry cowboy. Donald Cerrone has made no bones about the notion that Jamie Varner is dodging him time and again, and he thinks he would have won their fight had it continued. However, one questionable illegal head kick kept that from becoming reality. Now he's pretty damn disgruntled, and would love a chance to put Varner away. I think between that hunger, the master strategist, and of course the skill, Cerrone wins by unanimous decision.

From here, WEC apparently has big plans, as they have announced their intentions to run a show a month until the summer of 2010. I have some concerns with this decision, as it threatens to saturate the market. I enjoy most of UFC's offerings, but not all. Sometimes I think the pressure to put on many shows jeopardizes the quality, and with fewer weight classes, it's not as though WEC's roster is as rich as UFC's. Of course, a lot of this becomes moot should WEC merge with UFC. It's going to be interesting to see if the little promotion that could will hold up. I certainly hope so.