UFC 103 Predictions

Another big pay per view is on the horizon, featuring the return of some longtime UFC vets. UFC 103 is another PPV like 101 which, while it doesn't determine champions, it may determine potential contenders in some serious weight classes.

More interestingly perhaps is the fact that the show is going head-to-head with the Floyd Mayweather/Juan Manuel Marquez boxing PPV, marking the first time I can think of where MMA and boxing have literally squared off against one another on a big fight night. To compound matters, UFC will be airing two fights from the prelims for free on Spike TV.

Some people have commented that this is just another underhanded tactic by Dana White and company to undermine their competition. Truth is, it's smart business. This is nothing new in the arena of combat sports. As I've previously mentioned, WCW and WWF used to go head-to-head on a weekly basis every Monday night. What's so wrong about UFC trying to cut deeper into boxing? Honestly, a name like Mayweather could bring in big revenues for boxing and ultimately split fight fans. UFC is wise to air some of the prelims for free, as they come off as offering that much more to fans.

Taking a look at he main card, here are my thoughts...

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca. This oughta be a good lightweight scrap. Franca's coming off of ACL surgery and Griffin is looking to return to his winning ways after losing to Frankie Edgar a few months back. I don't see Franca winning for two reasons... 1. He's been out of action for nearly a year due to his injury. That's going to lead to some "cage rust" (since we're not in a ring) 2. Tyson Griffin has never been submitted before, and has great defense against Jiu-Jitsu. When you neutralize Franca's strongest asset, you've taken his legs out from under him. Griffin by UD.

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg. I'm surprised to even be mentioning Trigg's name, to be honest. The man hasn't fought in the UFC in four years, and is a lightning rod for controversy. I think his signing comes down to two things... 1. Everyone likes seeing a heel get his just desserts. 2. It's one less recognizable name for Strikeforce to claim. Koscheck is coming off a questionable loss to Paulo Thiago, but has been improving dramatically over the last year. Conversely, Trigg has not fought a big name fighter since he lost to Robbie Lawler two years ago. It could be argued that his last four wins are only padding his record, and he hasn't been legitimately challenged in a while. I don't know that Kos will knock the man out, but I do see him winning by split decision.

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley. What was supposed to be a #1 Contender's fight between Kampmann and Mike Swick was drastically altered when Swick pulled out due to injury. Swick was replaced by Paul Daley, and I'll admit, the fill-in spot is a disappointment. Swick has been on a tear and I thought he would be a shoe-in to defeat Kampmann then challenge GSP for the welterweight crown. While Daley has fought considerably for a guy who's only 26, I don't see him having the same level of talent as a Kampmann. Kampmann by TKO in the second.

Mirko Filipović vs. Junior dos Santos. Just when you thought you'd finally seen the last of Cro Cop following a controversial win over Mostapha Al-turk, he's back in the fold once again for a chance to make it to the top. The question is, will he be the dominant head-kicking Croat of old? Or will he run into a Brazilian brick wall as he did with Gabriel Gonzaga? Junior is talented, and has a bright future ahead of him. But if Mirko is healthy, I don't see how dos Santos can pull this one off. Mirko by TKO in the first.

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort. Catchweight king Rich Franklin is back in the limbo between titles to face the returning Vitor Belfort. I hate catchweight fights in the UFC because they're confusing for fans. Hell, Franklin's career since rebounding from the Silva losses is confusing to fans. First he fights at light heavyweight and defeats Matt Hamill, then he goes onto fight Dan Henderson at light heavyweight to determine who will coach against Michael Bisping on TUF and then fight at middleweight to determine a contender for Silva. Huh? Then he fights at a catchweight with Wanderlei in an attempt to make ends meet while one is moving up in weight and the other is moving down. Eh, I can kinda see it, and it was a good fight. Now he's at 195 again to welcome Belfort, who plans on going down to 185. Good God. I swear, as good as Franklin is, he's becoming UFC's middleweight litmus test: just a roadblock for veterans looking to drop down to 185. When he finally sees 205 again, it's likely a full year will have passed since he last fought at that weight. Well, onto the fight itself, I guess... this fight spares us the "opportunity" of a practically meaningless Franklin/Henderson rematch. So that's a plus. The question is, will Franklin be fodder for Belfort as the Phenom moves towards a match with the Spider? I tend to think yes. Belfort seems reinvigorated since moving down in weight, and while Franklin has been solid against legends like Hendo and Wandy, Belfort is still young enough with plenty of punching power to stave off Ace and make a solid transition to middleweight. I'll even be so bold to say Belfort hands Franklin his first TKO loss since Anderson Silva in the third.

Sine we have some extra fights that will definitely see airtime, here are my quick pics on the live Spike prelim fights:

Efrain Escuadero vs. Cole Miller: Miller by rear naked choke in the first.

Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal: Drwal by TKO in the second.

UFC seems to be in a habit of trying to build credible contenders with non-title match PPV's. They're caught in a tough position considering how dominant their champions happen to be. From top to bottom, you have an emerging monster with few weaknesses, an elusive tactician who's never been beating, the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world who's on a 10-fight win streak, the superhuman athlete who seems to be the perfect hybrid fighter, and the Jiu-Jitsu genius who owns his weight class.

Much like 102, which saw potential contenders emerge in Minotauro Nogueira and Nate Marquardt, 103 sees the hopes a few people hanging in the balance. The winner of Kampmann/Daley is probably likely to get that title shot, unless a rubber match with Swick is in the cards. Dana White has been vocal about his hopes for both Rich Franklin at 205 and Vitor Belfort at 185. And Cro Cop is no doubt hoping a solid performance will put him in line against the winner of Lesnar/Carwin.

The real question is, how good are the chances of any of these guys against the current guard?