Evaluating the TUF Model

After offering my initial thoughts on TUF 10, I realized something.

This will be entertaining, sure... but are any of the fighters really good enough to be champions some day? Could any of these guys top Brock Lesnar now? A year from now?

This season is more about building the feud between Rampage and Rashad (now on hold thanks to The A-Team movie and Rampage's part) and generating ratings courtesy of one Kimbo Slice.

It's hardly UFC's fault for wanting to inject some much-needed life into the show that elevated them to previously unthinkable heights. But does it really bring us the absolute best fighters in the world and give them the exposure they deserve?

Let's look at the chronological winners of each season (note I'm not counting Stephan Bonnar or Ed Hermann as they technically were not season champions):

Diego Sanchez: After defeating Kenny Florian, he immediately moved down to welterweight to truly bring us some memorable fights, including wars with Nick Diaz and Karo Parysian. His recent move to lightweight has been entertaining as well, giving us a fight of the year candidate against Diego Sanchez. His only two losses are by decision, and his next fight is his first title shot against BJ Penn. He's done well, but hardly ascended to the heights expected of him just yet. He's a great athlete, but I'm skeptical his explosiveness will outdo BJ's expertises.

Forrest Griffin: The poster child for TUF and perennial UFC golden boy. Forrest had a tough go of things at first but wound up topping some big names en route to becoming the light heavyweight champion. However, he is just another name in the trend of TUF titleholders to win a belt but not defend it. This is a trend that will become apparent as we move on down the list. Griffin's heart was undeniable until his loss to Anderson Silva last month and subsequent jog backstage. Even his biggest wins could be contested. Shogun was coming off a knee injury which clearly affected him for the long term, and his win over Rampage was somewhat controversial. Not to take anything away from Griffin's tenacity, but is he really one of the top fighters in the world at this point? Has he already peaked?

Joe Stevenson: Joe Daddy lost his first post-TUF fight and racked up a few wins before showing gaping holes in his game against BJ Penn, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. He's only recently seemed revitalized thanks to the tutelage of Greg Jackson. Hopefully it can last long enough to erase the taste of so many lackluster performances. He's talented to be sure, but has a long way to go before becoming a real contender.

Rashad Evans: The least likely heavyweight out of Season 2 to win, he made a successful transition to light heavyweight early on and rode a hot win streak. However, his win over Forrest Griffin led to him being clearly outclassed by Lyoto Machida, making him the third TUF titleholder in a row to not even successfully defend. Clearly he has great punching power as his knockout of Chuck Liddell shows. But was this more to Liddell's old game as opposed to Rashad's skill? Hard to say. His fight with Rampage may be the acid test for his future as a potential contender. If he can't hang with more technical talents, he'll be lost in the shuffle.

Kendall Grove: Considering his physical potential, his performance following his TUF win has been disappointing. A mere 4-3 in the Octagon, he's light years away from ever being seen as a serious contender to the middleweight crown. His last fight against Ricardo Almeida showed just how much work he still needs to put in. He's still young enough that his prime hasn't hit, but in a division where everyone is just another name to be fed to Anderson Silva, how likely is it he'll reach that potential?

Michael Bisping: The one shining point of Bisping's TUF win has been the resultant exposure of MMA in the UK. His move to middleweight has made a lot of sense, but he's shown that when put up against higher caliber opponents, he clearly struggles. He looked lost in his fight to Dan Henderson, and now finds himself up against Dennis Kang soon. This is a far cry from the proposed Wanderlei Silva fight, and it prevents Bisping from further testing himself against top tier talent. He needs that sort of challenge if he ever hopes to be truly dominant.

Matt Serra: Serra is a little different from the rest of the names considering he was already well-established in the UFC when he won TUF. However, as a winner, he still needs to be considered. He may lay claim to UFC's biggest upset ever, but Serra's MMA career since then has been far from the spectacular superstardom he may have hoped for. Serra's Jiu Jitsu is great against most fighters, but in a sport where styles are becoming more and more mashed with prolific fighters, he's a far cry from being a major name in the welterweight division. At 35, you have to wonder how many fights are left for him. It's doubtful any will be for another title, though.

Travis Lutter: If Matt Serra's comeback was ultimately unspectacular, Travis Lutter's was downright embarrassing. He wasn't even able to make weight against Anderson Silva, and became just another notch in the Spider's gun belt. After being dispatched by Rich Franklin, he found himself the first TUF winner to be released from the UFC. It's been more than 15 months since his last fight, and now will fight fellow UFC-castoff Jason MacDonald next month at an MFC show. Lutter may is one of the more notable failures in the TUF experiment thus far, but given the theme of his season, UFC can be forgiven.

Nate Diaz: His credits with his brother Nick and Cesar Gracie are well-documented. His Jiu-Jitsu game is impressive. However, like many other TUF alumni, Diaz has found himself severely challenged when going up against more experienced opponents. His last two defeats to Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson now leave him with a sub-par opponent (in my opinion) in Melvin Guillard to help him rebound. Diaz, like Grove, is still young enough that his prime is well ahead of him. So there is time to grow and improve. But the question is, given the historic volatility embodied in both him and his brother, will he make the effort?

Mac Danzig: Danzig came into TUF 6 as the touted favorite and breezed through his competition, submitting each of his fellow cast members en route to winning. After defeating Mark Bocek, the rear naked chokes immediately stopped. Danzig is currently on a dismal three fight losing streak, and again, the theme here is consistent: more experienced talent seem to dominate. Danzig has lost to Clay Guida, Josh Neer and Jim Miller in spite of his impressive ground game on the show. His next fight has yet to be determined, and he's in danger of following Travis Lutter's path. The only difference is Danzig would be the first "pure" TUF with no prior UFC experience to be cut, which may be a more severe blow to the show's model.

Amir Sadollah: Sadollah came into TUF 7 with no prior MMA record in spite of a spectacular Sambo game. However, several injuries prevented his Octagon debut until last month. Most were expecting a submission win against Johny Hendricks. Instead, they witnessed a dismantling by TKO. The jury is still out on Sadollah as he is only 1-1 in his entire career. However, at 29, how many years does he have to really grow before his peak is missed?

Honestly, it's way too early to even speak out on Ryan Bader and Efrain Escudero, let alone Ross Pearson or James Wilks. But something has become clear... the longer the show has gone on, the less dominant the winners have been in their post-show experience. Even those who went onto win championships (Serra, Griffin, Evans) have failed to be convincing champions in their subsequent defenses.

The other clear theme is that when put up against truly experienced talent, even the most impressive TUF winners have largely failed. Most people wrote off Matt Serra's win as flukeworthy a long time ago.

With that said, and Season 11 still in the future, Season 10 may be one of the last chances for the show to be reinvigorated. If not, the flagship show may wind up a thing of the past. But the real challenge is for the UFC to legitimize the show. When Forrest and Rashad won the light heavyweight championship, cries of vindication were offered by MMA pundits. And when they were lost in convincing fashion, new questions arose. At this point, I can't see any of the current winners growing to the point those two did.

Perhaps its time for UFC to reinvent the show. Maybe they could show the training regiment of new fighters to the company, a more documentary style. Or, if they insist on the reality format, the rumored merger between UFC and WEC could provide an interesting lightweight season where at least the fighters come in with prior experience.

Much remains to be seen regarding the show. It seems to be heavily saturated and perhaps out of tricks. As much as I'm curious about Season 10, I'm more interested to see if Season 11 will bring some more novel format updates. Lord knows they're needed.