UFC 102 Predictions

UFC 102 rounds out the month in MMA, and an interesting card it is. While it is the only major card this month to feature no title defenses of any kind, it could potentially create some future top contenders. Overall, I think this card is the strongest August has offered fans yet, as it's a stacked line-up of marquee names and young up-and-coming competitors.

PTN, my predictions (main card only):

Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski. Soszynski makes me happy for two things in life: TUF alumni and the copy and paste option in Microsoft Word. The last time I saw so few vowels, I was in typing class repeating the home row. Seriously, Soszynski is an animal, and was my original pick to win his season of TUF. He's been on a tear since the show wrapped, and I see him dominating again here by first round knockout. (I'd love to see him return to the kimura, though)

Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia. This fight interests me more than all the rest on the card. Marquardt has improved dramatically since losing in his last title shot at Anderson Silva, and I consider Maia to be the best Jiu-Jitsu fighter in MMA today. You have to give the stand-up and experience to Marquardt, but the patience and ground savvy clearly go to Maia. With the winner of this fight likely going onto a future middleweight title shot, there's lots on the line, and I expect both guys to bring their best game. You could almost rely on a coin toss for this one, because it could really go either way. I side with Maia, though. He's proven to be elusive when necessary and gone up against some very strong wrestlers. Marquardt would have to hope for some puncher's luck to win, but I see Maia outclassing him on the ground for the win by rear naked choke midway through the second.

Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt. With Leben coming off a 9-month suspension for steroids and a humbling loss to Michael Bisping, I foresee him really wanting to turn up the heat. Rosholt cut his teeth in WEC but has yet to win in the UFC against more seasoned opponents. I think Leben's mindset after the layoff could play into this. If he has a clear head, he's got a shot, but he's also struggled against wrestlers and Jiu-Jitsu practitioners. Also consider Rosholt hasn't been knocked out yet and that tilts the scales in his favor. I see Rosholt by unanimous decision.

Thiago Silva vs. Keith Jardine. Keith Jardine is the perennial gatekeeper to the light heavyweight crown in the UFC. He's proven both impressive and mediocre at particular points in time. He's fought and beaten some of the best and also lost to some of the best. Unraveling the enigma of Jardine is frustrating sometimes. Meanwhile, Thiago Silva is coming off his only loss to date against one of the best pound-for-pound fighters today. One thing that Jardine has proven is that he doesn't fare well against early aggression, which is something Silva has a lot of. Not to mention heavy hands. My prediction basically sees Jardine losing much like he did to another Silva: Wanderlei. First round knockout for Thiago, first back-to-back loss for Jardine.

Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The heavyweight tournament Dana White set up goes round robin and comes full circle as two former champs meet for the first time. This is intriguing because of how different the fighting styles of both men are, yet how strategic and technical they can be in their respective lanes. Not that I think Frank Mir's decisive victory against Minotauro was a fluke, but it's been established Nogueira wasn't performing at his normal level due to recovery from a staph infection. I think if he were healthy, Brock Lesnar never would've gotten his rematch. That said, I don't think he'll be able to submit Randy easily. Couture's a cagey vet, he knows the ins and outs of the ground game very, very well. "The Natural" hasn't lost by submission in well over eight years. Then again, he hasn't gone up against someone with Nogueira's BJJ expertise, which is as good as it gets at the heavyweight level. I see Nogueira eking out a close split decision win due to multiple escapes and submission attempts.

What will be interesting to see is how the winners factor into future title shots. Like I said, the winner of Marquardt/Maia almost definitely gets the winner of Hendo-Silva II. I would say given the thin heavyweight division, the winner of Couture/Nogueira has to be at least considered for a future title shot, although another win may be necessary. Any way you cut it, I really think this will be an entertaining card full of talent and variety. Maybe even some fight of the year contenders. From here, we look ahead to September for WEC 43, a new season of The Ultimate Fighter and the return of Vitor Belfort to the Octagon.

Should be fun.