UFC 101 Predictions

UFC 101 is upon us this weekend. After the landmark 100th show and MMA's latest shake-up between Affliction, Strikeforce and UFC, this already stacked show seems that much more exciting. Take into account that WEC 42 is a mere 24 hours later and Strikeforce's Carano vs. Cyborg fight is a week thereafter, this kickstarts the biggest month for MMA in 2009, which will culminate with UFC 102 on the 29th.

Helluva way to end the summer.

I'm particularly stoked because as I mentioned, I'll be in attendance at this particular event. It's my first UFC show since they don't often come to the northeast, and it features some of my favorite fighters. Not to mention a sentimental favorite. That said, here are my predictions for the main card:

Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino: On a card where the co-main events could really go either way, this has potential to be the most competitive fight of the night. I like the match-up here of wrestling and BJJ. Pellegrino's no joke, but Neer seems to have him oversized here. I see Neer's wrestling stifling Pellegrino's Jiu-Jitsu should this become a ground war, ultimately making way for a first round KO win.

Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove: This one hits slightly close to home for me. I train at Renzo Gracie Connecticut, and Almeida is one of Renzo's many black belts. To say I'm biased would be an understatement. I'm not taking anything away from Grove, but his ground skills don't compare to Almeida's. I know this for fact. I predict Ricardo's last fight before moving down to welterweight will be a win by armbar in the second.

Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks: It's been a while since Amir Sadollah did anything other than host "Inside the Octagon." The TUF Season 7 Winner was set back twice due to injuries sustained during training, putting off his big stage debut by nearly nine months. Hendricks is a good wrestler, but I doubt he'll be able to cope with Sadollah's Muay Thai striking. Sadollah nabs his first non-submission win: TKO in the second.

Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin: This will be a very, very interesting fight to watch. Anderson Silva's last two outings against Patrick Cote and Thales Leites have been notably lackluster. The normally explosive Silva was anything but against both men. I'd contend we'll never know if he'd change that in the Cote fight due to Cote's blown knee. The Leites fight was a massive disappointment. Not to be an apologist, but I attribute that more to Leites than Silva for his apparent fearful approach. It doesn't jibe with Silva's counter-striking style. This fight, however, is almost tailor-made for the man. There may not be a guy with more heart than Forrest Griffin, and he'll provide the Spider with a great challenge. Both guys are great strikers and solid on the ground. However, the only way I can see Forrest winning is by decision, which isn't likely. He's shown a vulnerable chin to knockouts before, and I think this time will be no different. Silva's instincts kick in late in the second to counterattack and get the win by TKO.

BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian (UFC Lightweight Championship): I've been excited about this fight for a while, and I expect a very competitive match-up. Penn is back in the weight class best suited for him after a rout by GSP, and Florian has been polishing his game for a while now. Penn obviously lives up to his alias as a prodigy with insane flexibility perfect for a five-star BJJ ground game. However, Florian has grown tremendously as a fighter over the last four years, now on a six-fight win streak. To me, BJ, as good as he is, spent a great deal of time focusing on trying to make his case in the "Greasegate" debacle. His training has often been questionable, and quite honestly one well done YouTube clip of him jumping three feet out of a pool isn't enough to convince me he's approached this scenario any differently. Florian lives to train and has shown vast improvement all around. I'm going for the upset here with Florian pulling off a TKO victory in the third. He's got a four inch reach advantage which makes me believe he'll use that to keep BJ at bay, preventing an extensive ground war from ensuing. You heard it here first!

So with that said, I'll be sure to work on my post-show thoughts on this and WEC 42 next week. Enjoy the big weekend, all.